Research Projects & Initiatives.
Explore 100 selected SPS-DRM research projects, empirical studies, applied research streams, educational initiatives and knowledge-development activities.
Research Projects & Initiatives
Improvement of the Risk Management System from Natural Disasters in the Republic of Serbia
A national scientific-research project implemented through SPS-DRM to strengthen the disaster-risk-management system in Serbia and support more effective approaches to natural-hazard risk reduction.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Strengthening the Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia
A comprehensive RDI framework for improving preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery through multi-hazard analysis, spatial data, innovation, knowledge bases and policy development.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience Based on Social Identity Influences
A multi-method project designed to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience in Serbia using social-identity indicators.
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Abstract
The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience. Conslusion: The realisation of the MODERSI project in which the quantitative and qualitative research tradition is applied provides results that ensure competitiveness, quality, practical value and transparency. Within the project, support will be provided for the development of doctoral students engaged in research in disaster studies. It will enable the creation of preconditions for the development of international research in this field. The result of scientific and innovative potentials in disaster risk management will be increased. The project will indicate the possibilities and needs for designing and implementing innovation, which can directly influence the business sector to move towards finding and producing innovative technical solutions for disaster risk management in all its stages (preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery, renewal and remediation). It will influence the connection between manufacturers of innovative technical solutions and users through apparent partnership cooperation and support platform. If adequately implemented, innovative solutions in DRR can directly reduce the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of disaster on people and their health. The project will improve the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge in DRM. Education, which teaches individuals how to act in the event of a disaster and how to avoid unsafe scenarios that vary based on the hazard, is one of the most successful ways to increase community resilience. Several parties are involved in this goal: scientists, policymakers, emergency management organisations, and people. Despite this, disaster management knowledge looks scattered, highlighting perceived information coordination and sharing needs. The sharing of appropriate knowledge and good practices in CDR will enable the young researcher to conduct new research studies in this field. The project will contribute to exchanging opinions, knowledge, innovations and experiences in disaster risk management. In the short-term perspective, the Project will enable CDR prediction based on SI indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses — rather than waiting for a disaster to occur and then paying for it. From a long-term perspective, it should be borne in mind that climate change is increasingly affecting the frequency and consequences of disasters and that society will face even more serious natural and anthropogenic disasters in the future. The project will enable communities and households to better understand and increase their ability to deal with, survive, and recover from disasters by assessing and strengthening disaster resilience. The project results will enable further development of scientific and empirical knowledge in disaster and future studies. They will be the starting point for further elaboration and development of predictive models. Project results can improve people-saving efforts and tailor warning messages to local risk factors and people’s behaviour. The project is in line with the activities of the World Bank, which has done much to mitigate the consequences of disasters in Serbia. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2023). A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI). International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(2), 57-80.* [
Cvetković, V. (2023). A predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences (MODERSI). *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, 5(2), 57–80.
Increasing Readiness and Participation of Civil Society Organizations and Youth in Disaster Risk Reduction in Serbia
Research into the preparedness and capacities of high schools, civil-society organizations and local self-governments, especially civil-protection departments, across the West Morava Basin.
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Abstract
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied. *Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion influence on disaster risk reduction: A case study of Serbia. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, 5(1), 66–81.
Development and Improvement of the SPS-DRM Communication Strategy
A structured organizational-development project created to strengthen advocacy, public communication, stakeholder engagement, international visibility and internal coordination.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management
A major empirical research programme examining the implementation of strategic, legislative and institutional DRM frameworks and the capacities of local authorities across Serbia.
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Abstract
The objective of this research was to examine the capacity development of local self-governments in the field of disaster risk management (DRM). This quantitative research examines the degree of implementation of strategic, legislative, and institutional frameworks, as well as the capacity of local authorities to apply related policies through five analytical scopes: (1) degree of preparedness and legal framework; (2) financial framework; (3) policy aspects; (4) cooperation and partnership; (5) communication. The ability of municipalities and towns to respond to disasters was also analyzed and compared. In this paper, our initial hypothesis was that the effective implementation of the concept of DRM policy in towns of Serbia requires the continual strategic, tactical, and operational transformation of the public administration and public management system in order to strengthen the capacity of local self-governments for disaster prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This multi-method research was conducted over the period of 2014–2017 and included the following two target groups: (a) heads of disaster sectors in local self-government units (mayor) and (b) employees of the DRM sector in local self-government units. The results of this research will enable decision makers to successfully respond to challenges and help to improve the capacity of local self-governments and public local administrations within the scope of DRM in the Republic of Serbia, based on the principles of prevention and proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility. Conclusions: The normative and functional incompleteness and partial non-establishment of the DRM system at the central level have resulted in the fact that the system has not been established at the local level to a great extent either. Disaster risk management at the local level is carried out in a uniform manner: all local government units have the same type and scope of competencies. Generally, no differences were perceived between towns and municipalities with respect to the degree of establishment of competencies, whether normatively, institutionally, functionally, operationally, or financially, except in individual cases in favor of municipalities, which should be the subject of separate research. Strategic documents in the domain of community safety are not mandatory and do not exist in large numbers, whereas mandatory ones (crucial to the prevention of disasters), such as risk assessments and protection and rescue schemes, have been adopted to an alarmingly small degree. The competencies of towns in the operational sense, such as the establishment of headquarters and the adoption of accompanying documents, have only been partially fulfilled. Obligations that reflect the functional establishment of competencies that require full political, organizational, and financial commitment and the incorporation of the security concept into the organizational system have not been established. This refers primarily to the operation and equipment of all-purpose civil protection units, emergency population warning systems, education, etc. Supervision over the exercise of competencies in the domain of disasters in local self-government units is not visible in the system. Additionally, liability does not exist in practice, and neither do the procedures and mechanisms for determining the fulfillment of the legally prescribed competencies of local self-government units. Individual, legal, and criminal liabilities have not been made clear, with the assumed liability being primarily political in nature. Cooperation among the different levels of government was assessed as good, as is coordination. Cooperation with neighboring municipalities during disaster events was deemed to be poor (less than half of the local self-government units participating in the survey stated that they cooperate with other municipalities), while preventive intermunicipal cooperation was almost symbolic in nature. There was no cross-border cooperation, and there is plenty of room for improvement in this area. Knowledge about the existence of international funds for project financing was insufficient. Regarding project financing, town representatives were more informed than municipal ones, but interest in the proposal and implementation of projects was generally low. Employees in local self-government units were not additionally motivated to develop projects, as they generally will be given more money for extra work. The projects were developed mainly by the local economic development offices, which serve as developmental organizational units, and were implemented by various sectors of local self-governments within the project-related area. Additional motivation is needed to encourage employees in local self-government units to develop and implement projects in the field of DRM. Cooperation and communication among participants at the local level were reduced to formalized meetings, with no substantial insight into the capacities of the subjects and their vulnerability assessment schemes and a lack of developed informal contacts among people prior to a disaster. Resource databases for DRM do not exist. Based on conversations with subjects at the central level, it is assumed that each institution and protection and rescue formation at the local level is acquainted with the contents of its databases of available resources (which are not necessarily digital). The recommendation is that attention should be called to the establishment of standardized, available, and electronic resource databases for local DRM. Cities have formally improved their competencies in areas that do not require large investments and resources, such as holding staff meetings, appointing legal entities, and appointing civil protection commissioners and deputies. When it comes to forming expert-operational teams and standing commissions for damage assessment, they have remained at the same level or progressed, but not significantly. In areas that require serious political, professional, and public commitment and significant allocations, such as formation, the training and equipping of general-purpose civil protection units, situation centers, acoustic studies, the creation of an alert system, personal and collective protection, and simulation exercises, the situation is generally unsatisfactory. The competencies of local self-government in the operational and tactical sense are not sufficient. The strategic risk assessment plans provided by law have not been sufficiently implemented or adopted in a timely manner in cities, so the style of crisis management is mostly reactive. Organizational constraints relating to disaster risk management include a lack of staff, insufficient staff education, and financial and technical constraints. Failure to recognize the importance of prevention by policymakers is one of the most important organizational constraints. Additionally, organizational memory, as an integral part of the cognitive dimension of the learning of local self-government units in disasters and its explicit form (such as rule-books, manuals, instructions, public policy strategic documents, databases) has not been sufficiently established. On the other hand, cooperation and communication between actors at the local level have been reduced to formalized meetings, without substantial insight being gained into the capacities of actors, vulnerability assessments being carried out, or developed informal contacts being created between people before disasters occur. Resource databases for disaster risk management are not sufficient. Based on conversations with actors at the central level, it is assumed that each institution and player in protection and rescue at the local level knows what it must do and has its own database of available resources (not necessarily electronic). Through this research, we aim to enable both decision-makers and citizens to competently and effectively respond to challenges of existing DRM policy in accordance with the principles of prevention, proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility, as well as to suggest new research perspectives. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Kešetović, Ž., Nikolić, N., & Dragašević, A. (2021). Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19). doi:10.3390/ijerph181910406* [
Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Kešetović, Ž., Nikolić, N., & Dragašević, A. (2021). Capacity development of local self-governments for disaster risk management. *International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18*(19), 10406.
Improving Citizen Resilience to Disasters in Serbia
An applied public-education initiative producing educational brochures and emergency-action guidance for natural and anthropogenic hazards, with materials consolidated into a citizen-resilience resource.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Disaster Case Studies Repository
A continuously expanding collection of global, regional and Serbian disaster case studies covering historical context, causes, consequences and disaster-management lessons.
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 global coronavirus pandemic disaster. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. As of 19 April 2020, more than 2.35 million cases have been reported across 185 countries and territories, resulting in more than 162,000 deaths. Risk to communities with ongoing sustained widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing) — all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in March-April 2020. The questionnaire explored citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taking individually and as a community to prevent the deadly and widespread transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks presented by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop focused strategies to enhance community and national preparedness through the promotion of behavioral change and the improvement of risk management decision-making regarding pandemic disasters. Conclusion: The risk to communities with continued widespread transmission depends on the characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads among people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or drugs that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccines or medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on citizen preparedness measures such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing)—all of which have been demonstrated to reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. The possibility that the COVID-19 virus could behave differently from previous coronavirus outbreaks in 2003 and 2015 requires new research studies, assessments, and plans to address a novel virus with high transmission in the community and severe morbidity and mortality. The study described in this paper deals with the critical initial steps in the process of preparing for a pandemic disease disaster, i.e., determining the general knowledge of citizens in Serbia regarding their level of knowledge regarding the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 poses to both themselves and the wider community, risk perception, risk management and the recommended preventive approach. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures to effectively respond to a COVID-19 outbreak. We tested the central hypothesis that gender, educational level and age are predictive variables for stronger citizen preparedness for a pandemic disaster. Results of our survey indicate that there are major differences in the Serbian public’s perception of risks presented by pandemic Novel Coronavirus 2019 particularly their general knowledge vis-à-vis the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 presents to both themselves and the community at large, risk perception, risk management and recommended preventive measures to take to decrease the possibility of becoming ill or dying from COVID-19. The study described in this paper addresses critical initial steps in the process of local and national preparation for a pandemic disease disaster. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced anti-pandemic disease preparedness measures by promotion of behavioural changes that go hand in hand with the of adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations, not preconceived generalized plans. Airport plane crashes, stadium catastrophes, and remote mass transit accidents are all very different from those caused by deadly infectious microorganisms such as COVID-19 and require different responses. Communications need to be standardized and supported. Triage needs to be thought through more clearly. Future research would benefit from a more epidemiological approach (e.g., case-control and cohort studies) to identify risk factors for poor community responses to communicable disease disasters such as epidemics, “before and after” studies looking at a population in Serbia that has been affected by infectious disease disasters such as coronavirus pandemics, and studies using currently validated modelling and simulation methods. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4124.* [
Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Radiation Exposure vs. Social Benefits. *Energies, 14*, 2464.
Online Disaster Management Courses and Certification Platform
A free online disaster-education initiative developed by SPS-DRM to make preparedness and response learning accessible to students, citizens and professionals regardless of location.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
ProSafeNet — Global Safety, Security, Risk & Emergency Collaboration Platform
A digital professional ecosystem connecting practitioners, scientists, institutions and communities through knowledge exchange, training, research collaboration, projects and operationally relevant tools.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Emergency Response Guidebook 2024 — Serbian Translation and Digital Access Initiative
A public-safety knowledge-transfer initiative that made the Emergency Response Guidebook 2024 available in Serbian and connected the resource with future digital access through ProSafeNet.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Preparedness, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery
A thematic scientific project bringing together thirteen peer-reviewed papers to examine natural and anthropogenic disaster management across the full DRM cycle.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
National Flood Preparedness, Risk Perception and Gender Research Programme
A large face-to-face research programme examining flood-risk perception, preparedness, response behaviour and gender differences across flood-prone communities in Serbia.
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Abstract
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied. *Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion influence on disaster risk reduction: A case study of Serbia. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, 5(1), 66–81.
Pandemic Preparedness and Preventive Behaviour Research Programme
Nationwide online research conducted during the COVID-19 state of emergency to measure knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive behaviour among citizens in Serbia.
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 global coronavirus pandemic disaster. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. As of 19 April 2020, more than 2.35 million cases have been reported across 185 countries and territories, resulting in more than 162,000 deaths. Risk to communities with ongoing sustained widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing) — all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in March-April 2020. The questionnaire explored citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taking individually and as a community to prevent the deadly and widespread transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks presented by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop focused strategies to enhance community and national preparedness through the promotion of behavioral change and the improvement of risk management decision-making regarding pandemic disasters. Conclusion: The risk to communities with continued widespread transmission depends on the characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads among people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or drugs that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccines or medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on citizen preparedness measures such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing)—all of which have been demonstrated to reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. The possibility that the COVID-19 virus could behave differently from previous coronavirus outbreaks in 2003 and 2015 requires new research studies, assessments, and plans to address a novel virus with high transmission in the community and severe morbidity and mortality. The study described in this paper deals with the critical initial steps in the process of preparing for a pandemic disease disaster, i.e., determining the general knowledge of citizens in Serbia regarding their level of knowledge regarding the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 poses to both themselves and the wider community, risk perception, risk management and the recommended preventive approach. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures to effectively respond to a COVID-19 outbreak. We tested the central hypothesis that gender, educational level and age are predictive variables for stronger citizen preparedness for a pandemic disaster. Results of our survey indicate that there are major differences in the Serbian public’s perception of risks presented by pandemic Novel Coronavirus 2019 particularly their general knowledge vis-à-vis the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 presents to both themselves and the community at large, risk perception, risk management and recommended preventive measures to take to decrease the possibility of becoming ill or dying from COVID-19. The study described in this paper addresses critical initial steps in the process of local and national preparation for a pandemic disease disaster. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced anti-pandemic disease preparedness measures by promotion of behavioural changes that go hand in hand with the of adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations, not preconceived generalized plans. Airport plane crashes, stadium catastrophes, and remote mass transit accidents are all very different from those caused by deadly infectious microorganisms such as COVID-19 and require different responses. Communications need to be standardized and supported. Triage needs to be thought through more clearly. Future research would benefit from a more epidemiological approach (e.g., case-control and cohort studies) to identify risk factors for poor community responses to communicable disease disasters such as epidemics, “before and after” studies looking at a population in Serbia that has been affected by infectious disease disasters such as coronavirus pandemics, and studies using currently validated modelling and simulation methods. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4124.* [
Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Radiation Exposure vs. Social Benefits. *Energies, 14*, 2464.
Predictive Modelling of Pandemic Disaster Fear
A quantitative predictive study of pandemic-related disaster fear designed to identify demographic, behavioural and risk-perception determinants relevant to public decision-making.
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Abstract
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding a predictive model of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease (COVİD-19). The aim of this paper was to establish the level and impact of certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19). The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 1226 respondents during May 2021. A closed, five-point Likert scale was used to create the structured questionnaire. The first section of the questionnaire included research questions about the participants’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, while the second section included issue questions about fear caused by COVID-19. The results of multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 to be gender, followed by age and education level. Furthermore, the results of t-tests showed statistically significant differences between men and women in terms of different aspects of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease. Our results have several significant public health implications. Women who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported a greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Decision-makers can use these findings to identify better strategic opportunities for pandemic disaster risk management. Conclusion: The world has been challenged with the novel coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV2) and its associated disease, COVID-19, since early 2020. This study provides an assessment of fear during the COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia. Our results have several significant public health implications. Females who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Most respondents stated that they were not afraid of the epidemic caused by COVID. The most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 was gender, followed by age and education level. The obtained research results have scientific and social implications. The scientificimplications are in strengthening the empirical basis for conducting further analyses offear during the COVID-19 epidemic and in providing a better understanding of human behaviour in disasters caused by epidemics [125–127]. The study also complements the scientific fund of knowledge in disaster studies and addresses shortcomings in terms of understanding the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors on people’s fears during disasters caused by epidemics. From a societal perspective, the research results enable decision-makers to scientifically create and implement strategies, programs, and campaigns for the psycho-social support of people in disasters caused by epidemics. In addition, understanding the impact on people of disasters caused by epidemics allows the design and adaptation of strategic, tactical, and operational interventions for disaster risk communications and the implementation of public mental health policies. More research should be carried out on fear according to ethnicity, religion, and geo-graphical differences. First, studies can be conducted on the duration of disasters and thepsychological effects of direct experience. Second, the relationship between the economic situation and participants’ emotional reactions to the pandemic could be investigated. Third, the impact of possible disasters on individuals living in urban and rural areas couldbe compared. Our findings directly inform understanding of perceived fear during theCOVID-19 outbreak. Fourth, the inability to conduct a longitudinal study can be characterised as a deficiency due to uncertainty around the start and end of the pandemic. In order to discern the psychological changes in pandemic disasters, longitudinal examination ofindividuals during COVID-19 or another epidemic disease process will allow useful datato be obtained. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., Ocal, A., Martinović, J., & Dragašević, A. (2022). A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(2). doi:10.3390/ijerph19020652* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., Ocal, A., Martinović, J., & Dragašević, A. (2022). A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(2), 652. https\://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020652
Residential Fire Safety Behaviour and Preparedness Research
A quantitative study of residential fire-safety behaviour in Serbia, examining preparedness, personal security, fire-risk perception and prevention knowledge.
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Abstract
The territory of the Republic of Serbia is exposed to various natural and technical-technological hazards that increasingly endanger people and their material goods. An integrated disaster risk management system (preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery) has not yet taken root in Serbia to a sufficient extent, although there are certain institutional and legal prerequisites for its smooth functioning. Abandoning the reactive way of preparing for disasters and increasingly implementing proactive measures, societies are desperately trying to improve their resilience in resource-scarce situations and mitigate future consequences of disasters. In Serbia, there is insufficient resistance to disasters, reflected in the insufficiently improved ability of Serbian society exposed to dangers to respond to them and recover from the consequences of disasters promptly and efficiently. Despite this, many efforts are in vain, considering that the population’s awareness of various aspects of disaster management remains very low. The aim of this chapter refers to the comprehensive analysis and description of capacity building in Serbia for Disaster and Climate Risk Education. The undoubted importance of education in the field of disasters, which is increasingly receiving priority positions on various agendas around the world, emphasizes the necessity of continuous research on the perspectives of formal and informal education on disasters. One of the most effective tools used in all areas of integrated disaster risk management is education. Admittedly, it should be borne in mind that education is a complex and interactive psychological process in which the transfer of knowledge from different fields is carried out in a planned and grounded manner in the form of a kind of transfer. Conclusion: The role of schools in reducing the risk of disasters is an unavoidable topic in all world agendas where innovative solutions for mitigating the consequences of disasters are discussed. Today, it has become unthinkable to discuss structural disaster risk reduction measures without referring to the importance of education in that process. Unfortunately, in Serbia, little attention is paid to educating citizens about disaster risk reduction, which could be the result of mistaken beliefs that it is one of the marginal topics in the disaster risk management process itself. Although calls for the introduction of the subject safety culture in schools could be heard in several places, the decision-makers explicitly refuse to include such a subject in primary and secondary schools in Serbia. The reasons for such decisions can be found in insufficient knowledge of the area of risk reduction and not giving adequate importance to such non-structural measures of risk reduction. Unfortunately, there is still no sufficient consensus in Serbia regarding the necessity and importance of introducing the subject of security culture. One gets the impression that all other content is prioritized more than security content. The reason for such a situation can also be found in the fact that there is still a socialist view of security, according to which citizens should not take measures, but the competent state authorities, such as the police, fire-rescue units, emergency medical services, etc. However, practice shows that the largest number of people were saved by neighbours or other friends who happened to be nearby at the time when the harmful effects of disasters, such as shock and heat waves, radioactive radiation, biological contamination, etc., were manifested. Also, one of the famous examples of the power of knowledge in the field of disaster studies is the girl Tilly Smith, who saved her peers on the shores of the Indian Ocean when she warned them that the retreat of water towards the centre of the ocean meant that a tsunami would occur. She then warned the teacher who started the evacuation of the children who survived, thanks to that. Regardless of all that, it is necessary to continue improving theoretical knowledge and implementing practical training in Serbia. Certainly, in future planning documents, it is very important to highlight the importance of education in the field of disaster studies and to further develop all possible ways of its realization. In addition, it is important to improve curricula and programs in the field of emergency situationsemergencies. In order toTo achieve this, it is recommended to introduce the subject safety culture in primary and secondary schools. The significance of this chapter paper lies in shedding light on the critical role of schools in disaster risk reduction, a topic of undeniable importance in global discussions on innovative strategies to mitigate the aftermath of disasters. The text emphasizes that contemporary deliberations on structural measures for disaster risk reduction are incomplete without acknowledging the pivotal role of education in this process. The paper underscores a concerning trend in Serbia, where minimal attention is directed towards educating citizens about disaster risk reduction. This negligence may stem from misconceptions that view it as a peripheral aspect within the broader disaster risk management framework. Despite calls for the inclusion of a safety culture subject in schools, decision-makers in Serbia resist its incorporation into primary and secondary education, citing insufficient knowledge of risk reduction and a lack of recognition for non-structural risk reduction measures. The text identifies a potential reason for this situation in the lingering socialist perspective that advocates citizens should not take individual measures but rely on competent state authorities. However, practical examples reveal that, in reality, community members, such as neighbors neighbours and friends, play a crucial role in saving lives during disasters. Highlighting the power of knowledge in disaster studies, the text references the inspiring case of Tilly Smith, who, armed with her understanding, saved her peers from a tsunami. Despite such examples, the need for continuous improvement in theoretical knowledge and practical training in Serbia is emphasized. The paper advocates for future planning documents to underscore the importance of education in disaster studies, urging the development of various avenues for its implementation. Furthermore, it stresses the need to enhance curricula and programs related to emergency situationsemergencies, recommending the introduction of a safety culture subject in primary and secondary schools. In essence, the paper calls for a paradigm shift in Serbia towards recognizing the central role of education in fostering resilience and preparedness in the face of disasters. The integration of disaster and climate risk education into educational curricula is crucial. It is recommended to incorporate specific modules on disasters and climate risks into relevant academic programs across all levels of education. This integration could span subjects such as geography, biology, chemistry, and other natural and social sciences. Empowering educators is essential for effective implementation. Regular training sessions and seminars should be organized to enhance teachers’ understanding and delivery of content related to disasters and climate risks. Additionally, specific courses or certification programs focusing on this area should be developed for teachers. Active community involvement is key. Schools and educational institutions should actively engage local communities in disaster education programs. Workshops, lectures, or simulations could be organized to raise awareness about natural risks and disaster preparedness among the local population. Leveraging modern technologies is imperative. The introduction of technological resources, such as interactive guides, simulations, and online courses, can enhance disaster and climate risk education. Developing applications or platforms that facilitate access to information on climate risks and provide guidance on appropriate actions is recommended. Establishing partnerships with governmental bodies, non-governmental organizations, and international collaborators will facilitate the sharing of best practices and resources. Building a network that supports ongoing education on disasters and climate risks is critical. Enhancing capacity in disaster and climate risk education in Serbia is vital for constructing a resilient society. The holistic approach involves integrating this field into the educational system, empowering educators, actively engaging local communities, and leveraging modern technologies. These initiatives not only prepare citizens at all levels for the challenges associated with disasters and climate change but also contribute to overall societal security and sustainability. Collaboration with relevant partners and continuous monitoring and adaptation of these initiatives will further strengthen national capacities in this critical area. *Reference – Cvetković, V. & Šišović, V. (2023). Capacity building in Serbia for disaster and climate risk education. In Disaster and Climate Risk Education Insights from Knowledge to Action.* [
Cvetković, V. M., Bugarski, T., Ristivojević, B., Milošević, G., & Martinović, J. (2021). The predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system: A case study of Serbia. Preprints.
Nuclear and Technological Risk Perception Research in Serbia
Research examining how citizens perceive nuclear-power risk, radiation exposure and the social benefits associated with nuclear energy.
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 global coronavirus pandemic disaster. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. As of 19 April 2020, more than 2.35 million cases have been reported across 185 countries and territories, resulting in more than 162,000 deaths. Risk to communities with ongoing sustained widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing) — all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in March-April 2020. The questionnaire explored citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taking individually and as a community to prevent the deadly and widespread transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks presented by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop focused strategies to enhance community and national preparedness through the promotion of behavioral change and the improvement of risk management decision-making regarding pandemic disasters. Conclusion: The risk to communities with continued widespread transmission depends on the characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads among people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or drugs that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccines or medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on citizen preparedness measures such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing)—all of which have been demonstrated to reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. The possibility that the COVID-19 virus could behave differently from previous coronavirus outbreaks in 2003 and 2015 requires new research studies, assessments, and plans to address a novel virus with high transmission in the community and severe morbidity and mortality. The study described in this paper deals with the critical initial steps in the process of preparing for a pandemic disease disaster, i.e., determining the general knowledge of citizens in Serbia regarding their level of knowledge regarding the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 poses to both themselves and the wider community, risk perception, risk management and the recommended preventive approach. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures to effectively respond to a COVID-19 outbreak. We tested the central hypothesis that gender, educational level and age are predictive variables for stronger citizen preparedness for a pandemic disaster. Results of our survey indicate that there are major differences in the Serbian public’s perception of risks presented by pandemic Novel Coronavirus 2019 particularly their general knowledge vis-à-vis the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 presents to both themselves and the community at large, risk perception, risk management and recommended preventive measures to take to decrease the possibility of becoming ill or dying from COVID-19. The study described in this paper addresses critical initial steps in the process of local and national preparation for a pandemic disease disaster. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced anti-pandemic disease preparedness measures by promotion of behavioural changes that go hand in hand with the of adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations, not preconceived generalized plans. Airport plane crashes, stadium catastrophes, and remote mass transit accidents are all very different from those caused by deadly infectious microorganisms such as COVID-19 and require different responses. Communications need to be standardized and supported. Triage needs to be thought through more clearly. Future research would benefit from a more epidemiological approach (e.g., case-control and cohort studies) to identify risk factors for poor community responses to communicable disease disasters such as epidemics, “before and after” studies looking at a population in Serbia that has been affected by infectious disease disasters such as coronavirus pandemics, and studies using currently validated modelling and simulation methods. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4124.* [
Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Radiation Exposure vs. Social Benefits. *Energies, 14*, 2464.
Emergency Medical Response Systems Risk and Preparedness Assessment
A comprehensive assessment of organizational structure, resources, communication, training, funding, equipment and mass-casualty preparedness within Serbian emergency medical response systems.
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Abstract
Background/Objectives: Emergency Medical Response Systems (EMRSs) play a vital role in delivering medical aid during natural and man-made disasters. This quantitative research delves into the analysis of risk and effectiveness within Serbia’s Emergency Medical Services (EMS), with a special emphasis on how work organization, resource distribution, and preparedness for mass casualty events contribute to overall disaster preparedness. Methods: The study was conducted using a questionnaire consisting of 7 sections and a total of 88 variables, distributed to and collected from 172 healthcare institutions (Public Health Centers and Hospitals). Statistical methods, including Pearson’s correlation, multivariate regression analysis, and chi-square tests, were rigorously applied to analyze and interpret the data. Results: The results from the multivariate regression analysis revealed that the organization of working hours (β = 0.035) and shift work (β = 0.042) were significant predictors of EMS organization, explaining 1.9% of the variance (R2 = 0.019). Furthermore, shift work (β = −0.045) and working hours (β = −0.037) accounted for 2.0% of the variance in the number of EMS points performed (R2 = 0.020). Also, the availability of ambulance vehicles (β = 0.075) and financial resources (β = 0.033) explained 4.1% of the variance in mass casualty preparedness (R2 = 0.041). When it comes to service area coverage, the regression results suggest that none of the predictors were statistically significant. Based on Pearson’s correlation results, there is a statistically significant correlation between the EMS organization and several key variables such as the number of EMS doctors (p = 0.000), emergency medicine specialists (p = 0.000), etc. Moreover, the Chi-square test results reveal statistically significant correlations between EMS organization and how EMS activities are conducted (p = 0.001), the number of activity locations (p = 0.005), and the structure of working hours (p = 0.001). Conclusions: Additionally, the results underscore the necessity for increased financial support, standardized protocols, and enhanced intersectoral collaboration to strengthen Serbia’s EMRS and improve overall disaster response effectiveness. Based on these findings, a clear roadmap is provided for policymakers, healthcare administrators, and EMS personnel to prioritize strategic interventions and build a robust emergency medical response system. Conclusion: The analysis of the Emergency Medical Response System (EMRS) in the Serbian healthcare system reveals numerous deficiencies and serious challenges that require the implementation of urgent short-term and long-term measures for improvement. This study is one of the few in Serbia that comprehensively examines multiple indicators of the efficiency and effectiveness of such a system. The extensive study results point to significant and widespread variations in the organization and functioning of EMRS across the country. It can be assumed that these variations are a result of both historical and economic changes, as well as regional specificities. Although certain segments of the system, such as specialized emergency departments, function efficiently, the organization in many areas is inconsistent, leading to inadequate access to emergency medical assistance in some regions of the country. On the other hand, this diversity underscores the need for standardized procedures and more centralized management to improve coordination and optimize efficiency. Certainly, all identified weaknesses must be addressed in the shortest possible time, and the organization and functioning of the system must be improved. Besides the mentioned facts, the study identified several key weaknesses that significantly affect the efficiency of the system. Among these, outdated infrastructure, a chronic lack of staff, and inadequate logistics stand out, all of which together slow down response times in emergencies, including various disasters. Although reforms aimed at aligning with European standards have been initiated, their implementation is often limited by a lack of financial resources and capacity. The results also show that many emergency services rely on minimal resources and improvisations, while some units operate with insufficiently trained personnel and outdated equipment. Moreover, dependence on the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO) as the main source of funding further burdens the system, while local budgets and self-generated revenue are insufficient for the stable development and sustainability of EMRS. Thus, a critical step in improving the system is conducting targeted resource audits and establishing funds for the procurement of modern equipment for emergency medical services. All of these identified weaknesses become particularly evident under the difficult conditions caused by disasters. Therefore, the introduction of mobile units and strategic partnerships with technology providers can significantly improve the distribution of resources, especially in less developed and rural areas. Additionally, sharing resources among EMRS agencies and increasing intersectoral cooperation would optimize the use of available capacities, resulting in greater efficiency. A particularly important area that requires attention is the various aspects of communication system organization and functionality. In the study, communication was identified as one of the most critical points in the functioning of EMRS. The results clearly indicate significant gaps in communication systems, including a lack of standardized protocols and limited connections with key services such as the police and firefighting–rescue services. The introduction of digital radio systems, regional communication centers, and artificial intelligence to improve inter-agency communication is recommended as an urgent and essential measure. In addition, training on the use of communication technologies is necessary to ensure that EMRS staff is adequately prepared for complex emergency situations, including disasters. Conversely, the analysis of response times revealed significant variations compared to international standards, indicating the need for additional infrastructure investments and process optimization to reduce response times and improve patient outcomes. For these reasons, focusing on accelerating responses, training personnel, and expanding emergency medical assistance capacity is key to improving system performance. In light of these findings, it is clearly recommended to establish new training centers and digital hubs for disaster response, as well as to introduce continuous education and specialized training for emergency personnel. Such training is especially significant in areas such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), trauma management, and other specialized medical fields. Through intensified cooperation with international agencies and the integration of simulation-based training, Serbia can increase the preparedness and resilience of its emergency medical response system in disaster situations. The results of this study provide a clear roadmap for policymakers, healthcare administrators, and EMRS personnel to define priorities for strategic interventions, strengthen the system, and achieve alignment with international standards, which would significantly improve the health and safety of Serbian citizens. The conducted research has unequivocal scientific and societal implications in the area of emergency medical services improvement, as well as in disaster management and response. The scientific implications are reflected in enriching the existing literature in these fields and enhancing the understanding of key factors influencing the efficiency of emergency medical services (work organization, resource distribution, logistical challenges, etc.). A rich repository of data with empirical evidence is created, which can be used for comparison with other countries. Moreover, the study clearly identifies the need for standardization of procedures, protocols, and management within emergency medical services. This creates a foundation for future research on how standardization can contribute to improving response times and reducing regional disparities in access to such services. Additionally, through the use of statistical methods such as Pearson’s correlation, multivariate regression analysis, and chi-square tests, the study provides a methodological framework for further investigation into the organizational and operational aspects of emergency medical services. Regarding societal implications, the study offers concrete recommendations for healthcare sector reform for policymakers in Serbia and other countries facing similar challenges. Certainly, the results contribute to creating recommendations for increasing the capacity of emergency services and improving response times in medical emergencies, directly affecting the health and safety of the population. The study also highlights the need for better coordination between different sectors, as well as for improving communication systems and logistical capacities. These proposed changes can enhance the resilience of communities in cases of emergencies, disasters, and mass accidents, contributing to the improvement of population safety. *Reference: Cvetković, Vladimir M., Jasmina Tanasić, Renate Renner, Vanja Rokvić, and Hatiža Beriša. 2024. “Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems in Serbian Healthcare: Assessing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Disaster Preparedness and Response” Healthcare 12, no. 19: 1962. https\://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12191962* [
Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Renner, R., Rokvić, V., & Beriša, H. (2024). Comprehensive risk analysis of emergency medical response systems in Serbian healthcare: Assessing systemic vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness and response. Healthcare, 12(19), 1962.
Community Social Disaster Resilience Research in Serbia
Quantitative research examining demographic and socioeconomic determinants of community disaster resilience and their implications for sustainable local resilience development.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Global Geospatial and Temporal Disaster Patterns Research, 1900–2024
A large-scale analytical study of the geospatial and temporal distribution of natural and human-induced disasters and their socio-economic and demographic impacts.
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Abstract
This pioneering study explores the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and human-induced disasters from 1900 to 2024, providing essential insights into their global distribution and impacts. Significant trends and disparities in disaster occurrences and their widespread consequences are revealed through the utilization of the comprehensive international EM-DAT database. The results showed a dramatic escalation in both natural and man-made (technological) disasters over the decades, with notable surges in the 1991–2000 and 2001–2010 periods. A total of 25,836 disasters were recorded worldwide, of which 69.41% were natural disasters (16,567) and 30.59% were man-made (technological) disasters (9269). The most significant increase in natural disasters occurred from 1961–1970, while man-made (technological) disasters surged substantially from 1981–1990. Seasonal trends reveal that floods peak in January and July, while storms are most frequent in June and October. Droughts and floods are the most devastating in terms of human lives, while storms and earthquakes cause the highest economic losses. The most substantial economic losses were reported during the 2001–2010 period, driven by catastrophic natural disasters in Asia and North America. Also, Asia was highlighted by our research as the most disaster-prone continent, accounting for 41.75% of global events, with 61.89% of these events being natural disasters. Oceania, despite experiencing fewer total disasters, shows a remarkable 91.51% of these as natural disasters. Africa is notable for its high incidence of man-made (technological) disasters, which constitute 43.79% of the continent’s disaster events. Europe, representing 11.96% of total disasters, exhibits a balanced distribution but tends towards natural disasters at 64.54%. Examining specific countries, China, India, and the United States emerged as the countries most frequently affected by both types of disasters. The impact of these disasters has been immense, with economic losses reaching their highest during the decade of 2010–2020, largely due to natural disasters. The human toll has been equally significant, with Asia recording the most fatalities and Africa the most injuries. Pearson’s correlation analysis identified statistically significant links between socioeconomic factors and the effects of disasters. It shows that nations with higher GDP per capita and better governance quality tend to experience fewer disasters and less severe negative consequences. These insights highlight the urgent need for tailored disaster risk management strategies that address the distinct challenges and impacts in various regions. By understanding historical disaster patterns, policymakers and stakeholders can better anticipate and manage future risks, ultimately safeguarding lives and economies. Conclusion: The analysis of the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and man-made (technological) disasters from 1900 to 2024 provides significant insights into these events’ global distribution and impact. This research reveals that Asia is the most affected continent, with the highest number of disasters, indicating the need for robust risk mitigation strategies, particularly concerning seismic resilience and flood management. Africa faces a high percentage of man-made (technological) disasters, emphasizing the need for improved industrial safety and infrastructure, while natural disasters such as droughts are exacerbated by climate change. North America predominantly records natural disasters, particularly storms and wildfires, highlighting the importance of strengthening early warning systems and community resilience. Oceania, despite having the fewest total disasters, reports a high proportion of natural disasters due to its unique geographical characteristics. Europe shows a balanced distribution of natural and man-made (technological) disasters, underscoring the importance of adapting to climate change and maintaining high industrial safety standards. South America faces significant natural disasters such as floods and storms, alongside challenges related to industrial safety. The temporal analysis indicates an increasing trend in disaster occurrences until the 2000s, followed by a decline in the last decade, possibly due to advancements in disaster risk management practices, improved early warning systems, and greater global awareness of disaster risks. Despite progress, the high frequency of certain disaster types, such as floods and technological accidents, indicates the need for continuous efforts in these areas. A detailed analysis of the consequences of natural and man-made (technological) disasters over five-year intervals provides significant insights into the evolution of these events’ impacts on human lives and economies. Natural disasters have consistently caused substantial fatalities and economic losses, while man-made (technological) disasters, initially less significant, have become more pronounced with industrialization and technological development. Recent trends show a reduction in fatalities from natural disasters, attributed to improved disaster management practices, early warning systems, and global initiatives aimed at reducing disaster risk. Regarding the testing of the hypotheses, the first hypothesis was confirmed, as natural disasters accounted for 69.41% of the total number of disasters, causing greater economic losses and human casualties compared to man-made (technological) disasters. The second hypothesis was supported by significant geographical differences in the frequency and type of disasters, with Asia being the most affected continent and Africa having the highest percentage of man-made (technological) disasters. The third hypothesis was validated through the identification of significant temporal changes in disaster frequency, peaking in the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010, while the last decade saw a decline in the total number of events. The fourth hypothesis was proven by seasonal variations, with floods peaking in January and July, and storms being most frequent in June and October. Finally, the fifth hypothesis was confirmed, as different types of disasters had varying impacts on economic losses and human resources, with earthquakes and storms causing the greatest economic losses, while droughts and floods were the most deadly for human lives. These findings underscore the need for tailored disaster risk management strategies in different regions. The Pearson correlation analysis underscores that socio-economic factors, particularly population density and urbanization rate, play a significant role in influencing the distribution and consequences of disasters, including the number of deaths, injuries, and natural disasters. Higher population density is linked to a greater number of individuals affected, while higher urbanization rates and better governance are associated with a reduction in the overall number of disasters, deaths, and injuries. These insights emphasize the importance of considering socio-economic contexts in disaster risk management, highlighting the need for tailored strategies to enhance community resilience. This study contributes to the understanding of the global distribution and impact of natural and man-made (technological) disasters through a historical context. It provides a foundation for further research in disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in the context of climate change and urbanization. Identifying specific geographical and socio-economic factors contributing to the frequency and severity of disasters can help develop theoretical models and predictive tools for risk management. This study’s results can serve as a reference point for future quantitative and qualitative analyses exploring the effectiveness of various DRR strategies and policies. The findings have direct implications for policymakers and practitioners in disaster risk management. It is recommended that countries with high natural disaster risks, such as China, India, and the USA, focus efforts on strengthening infrastructure resilience, improving early warning systems, and enhancing emergency response plans. For regions with high man-made disaster risks, such as Nigeria and Egypt, improving industrial safety, regulatory frameworks, and emergency response capacities is crucial. This study highlights the need for integrated approaches that combine natural and technological risk management. It is recommended to develop comprehensive strategies encompassing prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, focusing on reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing community resilience to disasters. Additionally, implementing educational programs and raising public awareness about disaster risks can significantly contribute to reducing the negative impacts of these events. *Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., Aleksova, B., & Lukić, T. (2024). Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-Made (Technological) Disasters (1900–2024): Insights from Different Socio-Economic and Demographic Perspectives. Applied Sciences, 14(18), 8129. Retrieved from https\://www\.mdpi.com/2076-3417/14/18/8129.* [
Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., Aleksova, B., & Lukić, T. (2024). Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-Made (Technological) Disasters (1900–2024): Insights from Different Socio-Economic and Demographic Perspectives. *Applied Sciences*, *14*(18), 8129.
Cross-National Young Adults’ Disaster Fear Study
Comparative quantitative research examining the level, causes and sources of disaster fear among young adults in three countries.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Spatial–Temporal Cancer Trends and Public-Health Preparedness in Central Serbia
A long-term medical-geography and public-health study examining spatial and temporal cancer trends among women in Central Serbia and their implications for preparedness, prevention and health-system resilience.
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Abstract
Background/Objectives: Cancer is a major public health burden in Serbia and a factor influencing long-term disaster readiness by straining health system capacity. This study examined spatial and temporal trends in incidence and mortality for eight major cancers among women in Central Serbia (1999–2021) to inform targeted prevention and preparedness strategies. Methods: Standardised rates from national datasets were analysed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Geographic disparities were mapped in ArcGIS Pro 3.2. Mortality trends were assessed only for statistically reliable series. Results: Breast cancer incidence increased in six counties, while cervical cancer declined in several areas, likely reflecting screening success. Colorectal, bladder, pancreatic, and lung and bronchus cancers showed rising incidence; lung and bronchus cancer mortality increased in 16 counties, indicating growing demand for chronic respiratory care. These shifts may reduce surge capacity during disasters by increasing the baseline burden on healthcare infrastructure. Regional disparities highlight uneven system resilience. Conclusions: Aligning cancer control measures—especially for high-burden cancers like lung—with emergency preparedness frameworks is essential to strengthen health system resilience, particularly in resource-limited regions. Conclusion: As shown in this study, cancers are highly prevalent among the female population in Central Serbia. This is the first study in Central Serbia to apply the Mann–Kendall test to analyse cancer trends among the female population from 1999 to 2021. Additionally, it is one of the pioneering geographic-medical studies in the region that examines cancer in the female population. Despite their advantages, the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator have notable limitations. Both methods assume monotonic trends and may fail to detect non-linear, cyclical, or abrupt changes in cancer incidence, which can arise from sudden policy changes, environmental exposures, or advances in screening technologies. They are also sensitive to strong serial correlation in the data, which, if unaddressed, can increase the likelihood of falsely identifying a trend. Furthermore, these methods evaluate temporal patterns independently of spatial autocorrelation, meaning they do not account for the possibility that neighbouring regions may exhibit similar cancer trends due to shared risk factors. For a comprehensive geospatial analysis of cancer patterns, the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope are most effective when used in conjunction with spatial statistical techniques and models that can accommodate non-linearities and spatial dependencies. Research of this type requires interdisciplinary collaboration among oncologists, geographers, epidemiologists, and experts in information technology. The use of GIS tools and statistical methods enables a detailed analysis of complex patterns that would remain invisible without such an approach. In this way, not only is a better understanding of the spatial aspects of health achieved, but also the foundations are laid for future research and the improvement of public health at both national and local levels. For this reason, this type of research represents a crucial step toward developing more precise, equitable, and sustainable strategies for controlling and preventing malignant diseases, especially in developing countries where healthcare resources are limited and spatial inequalities are often pronounced. The research was conducted according to the STROBE statement (Supplementary Materials). Additionally, this study highlights the importance of integrating cancer surveillance into broader disaster risk reduction and public health resilience strategies. As chronic diseases increasingly influence the health vulnerabilities faced by populations, particularly women, their inclusion in national preparedness and adaptation plans becomes essential. The increasing incidence of cancer, especially lung, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers, highlights the necessity for improved screening, environmental monitoring, and access to early diagnostics in areas with high risk. To effectively harness the promise of geospatial epidemiology, future research must integrate more detailed spatial data, examine relationships with environmental and socioeconomic factors, and include clinical information such as tumour staging and treatment outcomes. Enhancing data systems, promoting interdisciplinary collaboration, and securing ongoing institutional and financial backing will be essential for converting research insights into successful cancer control strategies. Furthermore, this study lays the groundwork for understanding cancer trends in Central Serbia and creates opportunities for more targeted, equitable, and informed interventions. It is crucial to view cancer as a multifaceted challenge, encompassing medical, spatial, and social aspects, to achieve lasting health security and resilience. From a scientific perspective, this study demonstrates the value of applying non-parametric statistical methods and geospatial technologies to long-term epidemiological data, providing a replicable framework for analysing cancer trends in other regions with similar data limitations. It contributes to the expanding field of spatial epidemiology by bridging gaps between medical research, environmental science, and public health planning. On the other side, from a societal perspective, the findings demand immediate attention from policymakers and public health officials to tackle cancer not just as a medical issue, but also as an environmental and structural dilemma. These insights can help allocate resources, direct local interventions, and inform awareness initiatives focused on early detection and prevention, particularly for vulnerable populations such as women in underserved areas. Ensuring equitable access to healthcare, diagnostics, and preventive services is crucial for reducing geographic health disparities and strengthening the resilience of health systems against chronic disease challenges. *Reference: Kričković, E., Cvetković, V. M., Kričković, Z., & Lukić, T. (2025). Spatial–Temporal Trends of Cancer Among Women in Central Serbia, 1999–2021: Implications for Disaster and Public Health Preparedness. Healthcare, 13(17), 2169. https\://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare13172169* [
Kričković, E., Cvetković, V. M., Kričković, Z., & Lukić, T. (2025). Spatial–Temporal Trends of Cancer Among Women in Central Serbia, 1999–2021: Implications for Disaster and Public Health Preparedness. Healthcare, 13(17), 2169. https\://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare13172169.
GIS and Remote-Sensing Analysis of Flood Events in the Ukrina River Basin
A geospatial research project using GIS and remote-sensing approaches to examine the spatial and temporal pattern of floods in the Ukrina River Basin in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Abstract
The subject of this research is the analysis of flood dynamics in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, using a remote sensing-based approach and geographic information systems during the period 2016–2019. The aim is to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of floods by integrating satellite-derived precipitation data, hydrological data, and Sentinel-1 imagery processed through Google Earth Engine. The methodology included the use of CHIRPS precipitation data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identifying meteorological anomalies, while Sentinel-1 SAR data were used to map flood extent based on radar backscatter change detection. The approach combined temporal analysis with spatial overlays of land use and administrative boundaries to assess affected areas. Flood events were identified in January 2016 (89.98 ha), March 2017 (179.85 ha), March 2018 (58.81 ha), and May 2019 (195.38 ha), coinciding with periods of above-average precipitation (>125%), positive SPI values, and elevated water levels. The spatial analysis of flooded areas, overlaid with land use data, revealed that agricultural land was the most affected category, with 79.21 ha flooded in 2016, 169.15 ha in 2017, 48.89 ha in 2018, and 184.90 ha in 2019. Built-up areas were also significantly impacted, posing risks to infrastructure and economic stability. The cities and municipalities of Derventa, Prnjavor, and Stanari were most frequently affected by floods during the study period. The findings highlight the role of cumulative precipitation and hydrological conditions in triggering flood events and provide insights for flood risk management, including adaptive strategies, early warning, and sustainable land use planning. Conclusion: This research demonstrated the effectiveness of integrating Sentinel-1 SAR data, CHIRPS precipitation estimates, SPI index values, and hydrological information for identifying and ana- lyzing flood events in the Ukrina River Basin during 2016–2019. The remote sensing-based approach enabled the detection of flooded areas in January 2016, March 2017 and 2018, and May 2019. Among the different land use types, agri- cultural areas were the most affected, which is consistent with their spatial concentration in lowland zones along river corridors. The results highlight the potential of remote sensing and GIS tools to improve flood monitoring in areas where ground-based hydrometeorological infrastructure is lim- ited. By combining flood extent data with administrative boundaries and land use layers, we identified both vulner- able land categories and population exposure. This spatial information can assist decision-makers in prioritizing flood protection measures, infrastructure investment, and adaptation planning. Nevertheless, the study has certain limitations. The spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 imagery (10 m) may not detect localized flood events in small or narrow flood- plains. The temporal resolution of satellite imagery (typi- cally 6–12 days) may result in missed events or delayed mapping, especially during short-duration floods. Additionally, the absence of active HSs within the Ukrina River Basin limits the ability to validate flood peaks and water discharge directly, relying instead on proxy data from nearby stations. The land use dataset (CLC 2018) may also not fully capture land cover changes during the entire study period. Moreover, the adopted methodology, based on coinciding meteorological and hydrological indi- cators, may overlook certain flood events triggered by rapid runoff over dry antecedent soils. Such events, while lacking pronounced cumulative wetness, can still pose sig- nificant flood hazards due to reduced infiltration capacity. Future research could address this by incorporating satel- lite-derived soil moisture products (e.g., SMAP or ASCAT), which would enable a more comprehensive assessment of antecedent conditions and improve the accuracy of flood detection under diverse hydrometeorological scenarios. Also, future research should focus on integrating higher- resolution satellite products (e.g., Sentinel-2 or commercial imagery), as well as topographic data such as DEMs, to refine floodplain delineation and hydrological modeling. Expanding the analysis toward multi-hazard assessment (including droughts and wildfires) would contribute to the development of an integrated risk management system in the Ukrina River Basin. The presented results form a valuable foundation for designing adaptive land use policies and improving local flood preparedness through spa- tially informed early warning systems. *Reference: Sabljić, L., Lukić, T., Bajić, D., Marković, S., Spalevic, V., Cvetković, V., Delić, D., Adžić, D., Aleksova, B., Milevski, I. & Srzentić, G. (2025). Spatio-temporal analysis of flood events using GIS and remote sensing-based approach in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Open Geosciences, 17(1), 20250856.* [
Sabljić, L., Lukić, T., Bajić, D., Marković, S., Spalevic, V., Cvetković, V., Delić, D., Adžić, D., Aleksova, B., Milevski, I. & Srzentić, G. (2025). Spatio-temporal analysis of flood events using GIS and remote sensing-based approach in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Open Geosciences, 17(1), 20250856.
Predictive Modelling of Multidimensional Security Perceptions Among Serbian Students
A predictive study of personal safety, public-event safety, national threats, digital security, emergencies, institutional trust and sustainability among university students in Serbia.
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Abstract
This study investigates and forecasts multidimensional security perceptions among Serbian university students, who are a particularly engaged and vulnerable demographic in transitional societies. It examines how demographic traits, socio-economic status, and levels of institutional trust and engagement shape students’ evaluations of security in everyday life. The study examines six primary dimensions of security perception: personal safety, safety at public events and demonstrations, perceived national threats, digital security and privacy, perception of emergencies and crises, and trust in institutions and security policies. A structured online survey was administered to a sample of 406 university students selected through non-probability purposive sampling from major academic centres in Serbia, including Belgrade, Niš, Novi Sad, and Kragujevac. The questionnaire, based on a five-point Likert scale, was designed to measure levels of agreement across the six dimensions. Data were analysed using multiple regression, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and independent samples t-tests. All necessary statistical assumptions were met, ensuring the reliability and validity of the results. Descriptive statistics indicated moderate to moderately high overall perceived safety, with personal safety scoring the highest, followed by digital security and disaster preparedness. Lower scores were recorded for public event safety, perceived national threats, and, in particular, trust in institutional security policies. Regression analysis revealed that key predictors of perceived safety varied across dimensions: gender was a significant predictor of personal safety. At the same time, family financial status had a strong influence on perceptions of safety at public events. These findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted risk communication, inclusive policy initiatives, and institutional reforms that aim to enhance youth resilience, civic trust, and participatory security governance, ultimately contributing to long-term social sustainability. Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive and nuanced perspective on how young people in Serbia perceive personal safety. Utilising both descriptive and inferential statistical methods, the research highlights key aspects of perceived safety and examines the impact of socio-demographic, educational, and behavioural factors on these perceptions. By addressing the institutional and perceptual determinants of youth security, this study contributes to the discourse on sustainable development by highlighting the need for inclusive, trust-based, and participatory security strategies that reinforce social cohesion and democratic resilience. The findings presented in this study are not only theoretically significant but also practically valuable for public institutions, educational authorities, and civil society actors seeking to strengthen youth engagement, institutional trust, and proactive safety behaviours. By aligning security policy frameworks with students’ perceptions, stakeholders can foster more resilient and participatory societies. The results of this study demonstrate that each of the proposed research questions was addressed through targeted statistical analysis, confirming that institutional trust and exposure to information are the most consistent predictors across multiple dimensions of perceived safety. Notably, gender differences were particularly relevant in personal safety perceptions. At the same time, financial status emerged as a significant factor in public space-related concerns. Civic engagement was associated with increased awareness but also heightened institutional scepticism. Descriptive analyses indicate that although youth generally feel safe in their immediate environments, particularly at home, they harbour significant concerns about crime, inadequate community support during emergencies, and a lack of trust in institutional responses. There is notable civic engagement and a willingness to join social movements, accompanied by scepticism towards media coverage and the management of protests by institutions. Additionally, young people display a heightened awareness of national threats such as organised crime, misinformation, and energy dependence, showcasing a sophisticated understanding of both established and emerging risks. Concerns related to digital security and privacy are pronounced. While many express support for surveillance technologies aimed at crime prevention, there is widespread scepticism regarding the effectiveness of data protection laws and personal control over digital information. Youth also report low confidence in institutional crisis management and communication efforts, identifying insufficient education, unreliable media, and doubts about the preparedness of public services and educational institutions. Trust in institutions and security policies remains notably low. Although political stability is considered crucial for national security, transparency, judicial efficacy, and citizen involvement in security governance receive relatively poor ratings. Trust is slightly higher towards the military and police, but overall perceptions convey disenchantment with institutional performance. Inferential statistical analyses provide further insights into these trends. Gender differences are particularly significant in the realm of personal safety, with males reporting much higher safety perceptions. However, there are no substantial differences across most dimensions based on university type, participation in safety-related activities, or academic performance—except in digital security, where those not engaged in safety activities feel more secure. Correlational analysis indicates that age and academic progress are negatively correlated with perceptions of safety, preparedness, and trust in institutions, suggesting increased scepticism with experience. Strong positive links exist between disaster preparedness and institutional trust, highlighting the relationship between these elements. Regression analyses identify a few significant predictors. Gender and financial status emerge as weak yet notable predictors of perceived safety and trust. At the same time, sources of information and civic engagement (e.g., voting) exert some influence on preparedness and confidence in institutions. Overall, the predictive capacity of the models is limited, with much variance in perceptions remaining unexplained. Regarding the initial hypotheses, only partial support was found. The hypothesis positing that gender significantly influences perceptions of personal safety was upheld. Likewise, the notion that socio-economic status (i.e., material conditions) impacts perceptions of public event safety and institutional trust also received support. However, the hypotheses related to the broader impacts of academic characteristics, participation in safety-related activities, and media consumption were not consistently validated across all areas, resulting in a partial confirmation of the findings. Together, these results imply that students’ perceptions of safety are influenced more by dynamic interactions among individual experiences, information contexts, and institutional trust than by static demographic traits. Future research should delve deeper into psychological, contextual, and experiential factors to foster a more comprehensive understanding of how young people perceive and navigate security in an increasingly complex world. Given that the sample was limited to university students, the findings should be interpreted with caution and complemented by future research involving broader youth cohorts, including non-academic and marginalised populations. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the importance of strengthening institutional communication strategies towards youth, particularly in digital and crisis contexts. Establishing participatory mechanisms—such as youth councils, peer-to-peer safety campaigns, or trust-building initiatives—may foster both perceived and actual security while contributing to broader social sustainability goals. These findings not only contribute to the academic discourse on youth and security but also offer concrete entry points for building inclusive, evidence-based safety policies in transitional societies. *Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Lipovac, M., Renner, R., Stanarević, S., & Raonić, Z. (2025). A Predictive Framework for Understanding Multidimensional Security Perceptions Among Students in Serbia: The Role of Institutional, Socio-Economic, and Demographic Determinants of Sustainability. Sustainability, 17(11), 5030. https\://doi.org/10.3390/su17115030* [
Cvetković, V. M., Lipovac, M., Renner, R., Stanarević, S., & Raonić, Z. (2025). A Predictive Framework for Understanding Multidimensional Security Perceptions Among Students in Serbia: The Role of Institutional, Socio-Economic, and Demographic Determinants of Sustainability. Sustainability, 17(11), 5030.
High-Risk Police Operations, Group Dynamics and Resilience in Austria
A qualitative research stream examining high-risk police activities in Austria through risk, safety, group-dynamic and resilience perspectives.
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Abstract
Special police units like Austria’s EKO Cobra are uniquely trained to manage high-risk operations, including terrorism, amok situations, and hostage crises. This study ex-plores how group dynamics contribute to operational safety and resilience, emphasis-ing the interconnection between risk perception, training, and operational practices. Interviews with current and former EKO Cobra members reveal key risk factors, in-cluding overconfidence, insufficient training, inadequate equipment, and the chal-lenges of high-stakes scenarios. Using a structured yet thematically flexible interview analysis approach, the study adopts group dynamics theory as its framework and ap-plies a semi-inductive, semi-deductive qualitative methodology. It examines risk cate-gorisation in ad hoc operations, as well as the interplay between risk perception and training, proposing actionable strategies to enhance safety and preparedness through tailored training programmes. The findings underscore the transformative impact of intensive scenario-based and high-stress training, which enhances situational aware-ness and reinforces team-based responses through cohesion and effective communica-tion. Group dynamics, including cohesion and effective communication, play a pivotal role in mitigating risks and ensuring operational success. Importantly, this research advocates for continuous, adaptive, and specialised training to address evolving chal-lenges. By linking theoretical frameworks with practical and actionable insights, this study proposes a holistic training approach that promotes both resilience and long-term sustainability in police operations. These findings offer valuable guidance to elite units like EKO Cobra for broader policy frameworks by providing insights that make police operations safer, and more effective and resilient. Conclusion: This study offers a thorough examination of the key factors influencing operation-al safety during high-risk police missions, with a particular focus on the Austrian spe-cial police unit, EKO Cobra. Drawing on qualitative insights from literature reviews, structured interviews, and informal discussions, the research delves into how risk cat-egorisation, perception, and training intersect within dynamic and often unpredictable operational environments. The findings highlight the complexity of risks encountered in ad hoc operations, emphasising the physical, psychological, and logistical challenges that demand cus-tomised strategies for effective management. Categorising risks into these specific di-mensions allows for a deeper understanding of the hurdles faced in the field and sup-ports the implementation of targeted safety measures. Legal frameworks and profes-sional standards underpin safe, ethical interventions, ensuring adherence to procedur-al guidelines that protect both officers and the public. In contexts where rapid decision-making is critical, comprehensive training emerges as a cornerstone of operational readiness. Combining theoretical knowledge with practical, scenario-based exercises equips officers with the skills necessary to effectively identify and respond to potential threats. Austrian policing exemplifies this approach through programmes like “Polizei.Macht.Menschen.Rechte” (P.M.M.R.), which integrates human rights and community engagement into core training mod-ules. These initiatives foster not only operational competence but also a strong sense of social responsibility. One of the study’s key contributions is its focus on modular competency training (MKT), which sharpens officers’ risk perception. By integrating intensive drills, MKT enables the development of automatic responses in high-stress situations, thereby en-hancing safety for all involved. Additionally, the research underscores the importance of socio-psychological factors—such as group dynamics, risk perception, trust, and communication—which significantly influence decision-making during critical mis-sions. Adaptive and inclusive leadership, further strengthens team cohesion and oper-ational effectiveness. The study also identifies areas requiring advancement, particularly in the adop-tion of modern technologies, like drones and advanced communication systems, to enhance risk assessment and operational efficiency. Furthermore, it stresses the im-portance of addressing intercultural and international aspects of policing. In an in-creasingly globalised world, fostering cultural sensitivity and international coopera-tion is vital for preventing miscommunication and improving collaborative efforts. While this research provides valuable insights into risk categorisation, training, and leadership, it also acknowledges certain limitations—, particularly the underex-plored role of technology and the impact of international collaboration. Broadening these areas of inquiry will further enrich understanding of operational safety and as-sist law enforcement agencies in adapting to evolving challenges. Additionally, this study offers practical strategies for improving safety in ad hoc policing scenarios. By bridging theoretical knowledge with practical application and holistic training approaches, its findings are not only relevant to elite units such as EKO Cobra but are also adaptable to broader law enforcement contexts. Furthermore, this study sheds important light on the psychosocial and organisational factors that shape safety and decision-making in high-risk police contexts. The findings underscore the vital role of intensive training, strong group cohesion, and adaptive leadership in driving operational success. Embedding these components into both training regimes and organisational culture can play a key role in bolstering the resilience and effec-tiveness of elite police units. On a practical level, the results advocate for training programmes that extend beyond technical proficiency to include emotional regulation, collaborative exercises, and the development of situational awareness. Encouraging more flexible leadership styles may also help reinforce team cohesion and improve risk management under pressure. Although this study is grounded in the specific context of Austrian policing, its core findings are transferable to broader international settings. Challenges such as risk perception under uncertainty, management of situational dynamics, group cohesion, and organisational resilience are common across by law enforcement and emergency services worldwide. European policing contexts—with comparable legal, institutional, and cultural frameworks—may particularly benefit from the study’s insights, which can inform training programmes, leadership practices, and strategic development. Beyond the policing domain, the findings are relevant to various non-police sectors where teams must make rapid decisions under uncertainty, including disaster man-agement, emergency response, military or peacekeeping operations, and industries such as aviation or offshore drilling. In all these high-stakes environments, the study’s insights on specialised police units offer valuable perspectives on performance coordi-nation and resilience. Looking ahead, further research is needed to examine gender-related dynamics within such units, assess the long-term effects of training innovations, and gather comparative data from other countries or elite forces. Adopting a multi-method re-search strategy that blends qualitative insights with experimental approaches could enrich the evidence base for advancing safety practices in high-risk policing environ-ments. *Reference: Renner, R., Cvetković, V., & Lieftenegger, N. (2025). Dealing with High-Risk Police Activities and Enhancing Safety and Resilience: Qualitative Insights into Austrian Police Operations from a Risk Perception and Group Dynamic Perspective. Safety, 11 (3).* [
Renner, R., Cvetković, V. M., & Lieftenegger, N. (2025). Dealing with High-Risk Police Activities and Enhancing Safety and Resilience: Qualitative Insights into Austrian Police Operations from a Risk and Group Dynamic Perspective. *Safety*, *11*(3), 68.
Disaster Risk Perception and Local Resilience Around the Duboko Landfill
A community-focused environmental-risk study examining governance, management, trust, communication and local resilience in communities exposed to landfill-related hazards.
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Abstract
This study examines residents’ perceptions of environmental and disaster risks near the “Duboko” regional landfill in Serbia. It aims to uncover factors that affect public trust and community resilience. This approach is rooted in interdisciplinary perspectives on risk perception, institutional trust, and socio-ecological resilience. A structured, self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from a stratified sample of 1,180 respondents across nine municipalities in Western Serbia. The statistical analysis involved descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression. The regression models indicated that gender, education level, type of settlement, property ownership, and household size were significant predictors across various thematic dimensions. The model addressing risk perception and environmental impact accounted for 5.6% of the variance, while the model regarding institutional trust and transparency explained 7.4% of the variance. Higher perceived risk and lower institutional trust were found among women, individuals with lower levels of education, rural residents, and respondents from smaller households. Furthermore, increased transparency and access to environmental information correlated with enhanced trust and perceived resilience. These results emphasise the complex nature of landfill risk perception and highlight the need for participatory communication, transparent governance, and context-sensitive community involvement to bolster disaster resilience and public health protection in areas impacted by landfills. Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive, multifaceted examination of how individuals residing near Serbia’s “Duboko” regional landfill perceive environmental and disaster risks. It also examines how these perceptions relate to their trust in institutions and the resilience of their communities. Drawing on key theories related to risk perception, trust in institutions, and socio-ecological resilience, the research provides strong support for all five original hypotheses. It shows that people’s sense of risk isn’t just about being physically close to environmental hazards—it’s also shaped by their social environment, values, and life experiences. Demographic factors, such as gender and age, emerged as significant predictors. Women and older individuals consistently demonstrated greater concern, stronger emotional reactions, and less trust in institutions. This aligns with global research that frequently reveals women exhibit heightened environmental awareness and emotional investment, while older adults, likely due to life experiences, are more sceptical of official narratives. Additionally, socioeconomic status has an influential impact on both risk perception and resilience. Individuals with higher education, greater incomes, and stable employment exhibited more trust in institutions, a more optimistic outlook, and a greater sense of control. Conversely, those with limited economic resources experienced height-ened vulnerability, stress, and a sense of disconnection from institutional frameworks. These results underscore the importance of social equity in managing environmental risks and emphasise the need for policies tailored to support marginalised communities. The location also played a crucial role. Residents of rural areas or those living within 5 km of the landfill voiced greater concerns about pollution, public health, and environmental degradation. They exhibited more intense emotional responses and greater distrust toward public authorities. These trends strengthen the “proximity hypothesis,” which posits that individuals living closer to environmental hazards tend to have heightened awareness, stronger emotional reactions, and increased civic engagement. Housing conditions and property ownership also influenced concern levels. People living in homes they or their families owned were more psychologically invested and more anxious about long-term con-sequences like health issues or falling property values. This likely reflects a sense of long-term commitment and deeper emotional ties to the area, emphasising how place attachment plays into vulnerability. Access to information and participation in civic life emerged as significant factors driving trust, preparedness, and emotional resilience. Individuals who remained informed, engaged in community or environmental initiatives, and viewed institutions as open and transparent exhibited notably greater trust and optimism. This underscores the effectiveness of participatory communi-cation and open governance in fostering stronger and more connected communities. On the aca-demic front, this research makes substantial contributions. By integrating various theoretical per-spectives, it enhances our understanding of how individuals perceive and respond to environmental risks. It demonstrates the necessity of looking beyond merely technical risk data to also consider personal, emotional, and institutional dimensions. The study further introduces a flexible model that may be applicable to other environmental contexts, particularly in areas adapting to EU regulations. Regarding policy, the findings provide clear guidance for enhancing waste management in Serbia. There is a need for more inclusive, strategic, and transparent approaches to planning and managing landfills. Special attention should be directed towards engaging the most affected and sceptical groups—particularly rural communities, women, and those with limited resources. Public educa-tion, clear risk communication, and increased opportunities for citizen involvement must all be expanded to restore trust and promote more sustainable behaviour. To support this, the study concludes with 18 specific recommendations. These initiatives are designed to address Serbia’s key waste management challenges, including fragmented institutions, poor communication, a lack of community input, inadequate infrastructure, and the informal sector’s weak regulation. Each recommendation is linked to practical steps, relevant stakeholders, and feasibility, providing a clear path forward in the real world. This study adds to both scholarly conversations and practical policymaking. It makes clear that you can’t achieve environmental safety or community resilience without trust, fairness, and people’s participation. Going forward, building a waste system that’s both socially and environmentally responsible will take lasting po-litical will, cooperation across sectors, and authentic engagement with the communities that live closest to the risks. *Reference: Nikolić, N., Cvetković, V., Renner, R., Cvijović, N. & Gačić, J. (2025). Disaster risk perception and local resilience near the “Duboko” landfill: Challenges of governance, management, trust, and environmental communication in Serbia. Open Geosciences, 17(1), 20250850. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0850* [
Nikolić, N., Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., Cvijović, N., & Gačić, J. (2025). Disaster Risk Perception and Local Resilience near the ‘Duboko’ Landfill: Challenges of Governance, Management, Trust, and Environmental Communication in Serbia. Open Geosciences, 17(1): 20250850.https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0850.
Sustainable Tourism, Community Attitudes and Resilience in Montenegro’s National Parks
A comparative study of local attitudes toward sustainable tourism development in Skadar Lake and Durmitor National Parks, with particular attention to socio-demographic influences and community resilience.
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Abstract
The study examines the attitudes of local residents toward the impacts of sustainable tourism development in two national parks in Montenegro—Skadar Lake National Park (NP) and Durmitor National Park (NP). The aim is to identify the key factors shaping these attitudes and to determine the differences in perceptions between residents of these two areas. The research is based on the assumption that socio-demographic characteristics, such as gender, age, and level of education, significantly influence attitudes toward sustainable tourism development. Data were collected through a questionnaire covering a wide range of attitudes toward tourism. Analyses were conducted using multiple regression analysis, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Pearson’s correlation, with careful verification of all key statistical assumptions to ensure the validity of the results. The findings reveal significant differences in perceptions between residents of NP Skadar Lake and NP Durmitor. Respondents from NP Durmitor generally rated both the positive and negative aspects of tourism higher compared to those from NP Skadar Lake. On the other hand, residents of NP Skadar Lake exhibited greater enthusiasm for tourism promotion and engagement in tourism development processes. It was concluded that socio-demographic characteristics, particularly education and age, are key factors influencing attitudes toward tourism. These findings provide a basis for formulating recommendations to improve tourism development, which should take into account the specific needs and perceptions of local communities in both national parks. Conclusion: The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the influence of socio-demographic factors on residents’ attitudes toward sustainable tourism development in Skadar Lake and Durmitor National Parks. The results confirm that education, age, and gender significantly shape perceptions of tourism’s economic, environmental, and social impacts. The study’s hypotheses were assessed through multiple regression analysis, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence supporting the revised hypotheses. Hypothesis 1, which proposed that education level influences residents’ perceptions of tourism, was partially confirmed, as education emerged as a key factor in shaping both positive and negative attitudes toward tourism. Hypothesis 2, which suggested that gender differences impact tourism perceptions, was strongly supported, with women displaying greater concern for environmental sustainability compared to men. Hypothesis 3, regarding the influence of residency duration on tourism attitudes, was validated, as long-term residents showed more skepticism toward tourism benefits, whereas newer residents had a more optimistic outlook. Hypothesis 4, asserting that younger residents are more inclined to support tourism due to economic opportunities while older residents prioritize cultural preservation, was confirmed, highlighting generational differences in tourism perception. Finally, Hypothesis 5, which suggested that economic dependence on tourism shapes attitudes, was upheld, with individuals employed in tourism demonstrating more favorable views on its expansion. These results emphasize the importance of integrating socio-demographic factors into tourism policy and planning to foster sustainable and inclusive tourism development. Comparative analysis between the two national parks revealed regional differences in attitudes toward tourism. Residents of NP Durmitor expressed stronger positive and negative opinions, likely due to the higher intensity of tourism activities in this region. In contrast, respondents from NP Skadar Lake displayed more enthusiasm for tourism development, seeing it as an opportunity for economic growth and infrastructure improvements. These findings underscore the importance of region-specific tourism strategies catering to each community’s needs and concerns. This study underscores the vital role of local communities in shaping the tourism sector. Their active participation enriches visitor experiences and fosters mutual benefits for both residents and the broader economy. The government can create conditions conducive to sustainable growth in Durmitor and Skadar Lake National Parks by prioritising targeted tourism investments. Strengthening infrastructure, enhancing services, and increasing community involvement would generate more employment opportunities, elevate living standards, and help curb rural-to-urban migration—an ongoing challenge for many emerging tourist destinations in Montenegro. Despite these national parks’ immense potential, findings indicate that local residents remain underrepresented in the tourism planning process. While they possess valuable knowledge of their environment and a willingness to engage, their influence in decision-making remains limited. This highlights the need for a tailored, region-specific approach to tourism development in these areas. For Durmitor National Park, where tourism is already well-established, efforts should focus on minimising negative impacts while promoting sustainable practices that protect the environment, cultural heritage, and traditional way of life. Enforcing strict environmental regulations, fostering community-led conservation efforts, and implementing responsible tourism strategies will be key to preserving the park’s ecological integrity and long-term sustainability. In contrast, Skadar Lake National Park—still realising its full tourism potential—offers a unique opportunity to involve residents more actively in shaping its future. By harnessing their enthusiasm and deep-rooted knowledge, policymakers and tourism stakeholders can cultivate an inclusive, community-driven tourism model that balances economic development with environmental conservation and social well-being. This study contributes to the existing literature on sustainable tourism by providing empirical evidence on how socio-demographic factors shape residents’ attitudes. The practical implications of these findings suggest that policymakers and tourism planners should consider targeted educational programs, participatory decision-making processes, and adaptive management strategies to ensure sustainable tourism development that aligns with the expectations and needs of local communities. However, the study has several limitations. Its reliance on self-reported survey data may introduce response bias, and its cross-sectional nature does not account for changes in attitudes over time. Future research should consider longitudinal studies to track the evolution of local perceptions and expand the geographical scope to include additional regions in Montenegro and beyond. Ultimately, the study highlights the importance of adaptive, locally focused tourism strategies that reflect the unique needs of each national park. By increasing local participation, enforcing sustainable tourism policies, and ensuring balanced economic growth, Montenegro can position Durmitor and Skadar Lake National Parks as exemplary destinations for responsible and community-centred tourism. This study reinforces the critical role of residents in shaping sustainable tourism strategies within protected areas. By demonstrating the influence of socio-demographic factors on tourism perceptions, the findings contribute to a growing body of literature advocating for community-based tourism models. The study emphasises the importance of enhancing local participation, improving educational outreach, and integrating community-driven approaches into tourism planning. Policymakers and tourism stakeholders must adopt more inclusive and participatory frameworks to ensure that tourism development aligns with economic aspirations and environmental conservation efforts. *Reference: Manojlović, B., Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., Grozdanić, G., & Perosevic, N. (2025). Exploring Local Attitudes Towards Sustainable Tourism Development and Community Resilience in Skadar Lake and Durmitor National Parks, Montenegro: A Socio-Demographic Analysis. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202502.1663.v1* [
Manojlović, B., Cvetković, V., Renner, R., Grozdanić, G., & Perošević, N. (2025). Exploring local attitudes towards sustainable tourism development and community resilience in Skadar Lake and Durmitor National Parks, Montenegro: A socio-demographic analysis. Preprints.
Cross-Cultural Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness in the Western Balkans
A comparative earthquake-preparedness research programme spanning Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, focused on cross-cultural differences relevant to sustainable resilience.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety in the Western Morava Basin
A large empirical school-safety project examining student and teacher perceptions of disaster-risk reduction, preparedness and safety across the Western Morava Basin.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Comparative Environmental Awareness, Knowledge and Safety Among Students
A cross-national student study examining environmental awareness, knowledge and safety in Montenegro and North Macedonia.
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Abstract
This comparative study aims to investigate environmental awareness, knowledge, and safety among students in Montenegro and North Macedonia, considering the unique socio-cultural and environmental contexts of both countries. A mixed-methods approach involving surveys and interviews was employed to gather data from students in educational institutions across Montenegro and North Macedonia. The study assessed various factors, including students’ awareness of environmental issues, their perceived level of knowledge, and their attitudes towards safety measures. A comprehensive series of 400 face-to-face interviews was carried out and these interviews encompassed 200 students from Montenegro and an equal number from North Macedonia, taking place at two esteemed academic institutions: The University of Montenegro in Podgorica and The University of St. Clement of Ohrid, Bitola, Republic of North Macedonia. Our hypothetical conceptual framework proposes that a combination of variables, including gender (H1), age (H2), year of study (H3), and rate of study (H4), significantly influences the attitudes of students from Montenegro and North Macedonia towards environmental awareness, safety, and knowledge. Research findings indicate significant variations in environmental awareness and knowledge perception among students in the two countries. While both Montenegro and North Macedonia face environmental challenges, differences in educational systems and socio-economic factors contribute to distinct attitudes and behaviors towards environmental issues and safety practices. This study sheds light on the importance of understanding regional differences in environmental awareness and knowledge perception among students. By identifying areas of strength and areas needing improvement, policymakers and educators can develop targeted interventions to enhance environmental education and foster a culture of sustainability in both Montenegro and North Macedonia. Conclusion: In this comparative study, we have identified key areas where environmental education can be enhanced to better address the challenges of environmental sustainability in both countries. The findings suggest that while students possess a strong foundational awareness of biodiversity and the importance of environmentally responsible behavior, there are significant variances in their understanding of other crucial environmental practices, such as waste reduction and resource management. The study reveals a need for more comprehensive curricula that not only educate but also equip students with the practical skills necessary for fostering sustainable environmental practices. There is a clear call for educational programs that are tailored to address specific gaps in awareness and that integrate a broader range of influences, including cultural, psychological, and contextual factors. Such tailored approaches can help bridge the identified gaps, enhance the effectiveness of environmental education, and promote a robust environmental awareness across diverse student populations. Moreover, the findings underscore the importance of policy interventions and targeted educational enhancements to address disparities in environmental knowledge. This could include revising educational frameworks to include more focused initiatives on recycling, waste management, and the broader implications of environmental degradation. By doing so, both Montenegro and North Macedonia can bolster their overall sustainability efforts and foster a more uniform understanding of environmental issues among students. As environmental challenges such as climate change continue to gain global importance, the study highlights the necessity for nations to prioritize environmental education and workforce development. This involves not only specialized training but also adopting interdisciplinary approaches that integrate environmental education across various sectors of governance and community involvement. This study advocates for an integrated approach involving educational enhancements, policy reforms, and international cooperation to effectively tackle environmental issues. By investing in human capital and enhancing institutional capacities to align with international environmental standards, Montenegro and North Macedonia can lead by example in promoting sustainable devel-opment and environmental stewardship at both national and global levels. Given the significance and intricacy of environmental concerns, coupled with their global relevance and the collective efforts underway, it’s natural to anticipate that environmental knowledge should evolve in tandem with global developments. As conservation efforts and the safeguarding of natural resources assume a prominent role on the international stage, it’s imperative for every nation to engage in a unified approach towards environmental preservation across all pertinent sectors. Environmental literacy emerges as a pivotal factor in addressing key aspects such as nature conservation, resource management, and climate change mitigation. Each country and economy, tailored to its capacities, must contribute to cultivating specialized expertise and human capital to effectively address these pressing issues. This necessitates swift adaptations within educational frameworks, offering avenues for further training and adopting an integrative approach essential for navigating the complexities of environmental protection and climate change. The ad-vancement of human capital and institutional capacity should unfold in two key dimen-sions: a) specialized training and skill development in targeted fields, underscored by an appreciation for interdisciplinary problem-solving approaches, and b) enhancement of governmental administrative structures tasked with enacting and aligning domestic legis-lation with international standards, alongside robust oversight of environmental protection laws, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and active engagement from both economic stakeholders and local communities. Considering the global nature of environmental issues and the increasing complexity of challenges like climate change, it’s imperative that nations prioritize environmental education and workforce development. This entails not only specialized training but also the integration of interdisciplinary approaches. Furthermore, governments must enhance their administrative capacities to align domestic policies with international standards, ensuring effective implementation and enforcement. By investing in both human capital and institutional frameworks, countries can collectively tackle environmental protection and sustainable development in a more comprehensive and impactful manner. *Reference: Cvetković, V., Sudar, S., Ivanov, A., Lukić, T. & Grozdanić, G. (2024). Exploring environmental awareness, knowledge, and safety: A comparative study among students in Montenegro and North Macedonia. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220669. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0669* [
Cvetković, V. M., Sudar, S., Ivanov, A., Lukić, T., & Grozdanić, G. (2024). Exploring environmental awareness, knowledge, and safety: A comparative study among students in Montenegro and North Macedonia. *Open Geosciences*, *16*(1), 20220669.
Cultural Heritage Protection and Disaster-Risk Resilience in Serbia
A qualitative research project examining legal, institutional and capacity gaps affecting cultural-heritage protection and disaster resilience in Serbia.
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Abstract
This research is dedicated to a comprehensive exploration of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in the legal and institutional measures established to safeguard cultural heritage in the Republic of Serbia against the adverse effects of disasters, including earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, floods, torrents, storms, hail, and forest fires. The study seeks to identify key challenges and shortcomings within the existing legal and institutional framework while also highlighting and analyzing best practices and potential avenues for improvement in the protection system. The research posits a preliminary hypothesis suggesting that significant challenges exist within the current framework, potentially hindering effective response and recovery efforts following natural hazards. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews with field experts and an in-depth analysis of existing documentation. These methods were aimed at gathering critical data and insights to enhance the understanding of systemic issues and contribute to developing practical, viable solutions. The analysis and processing of the collected data were conducted using ATLAS. ti software, enabling a detailed and systematic examination of qualitative information. Moreover, assessing the current capacity of institutions to respond swiftly and effectively to natural hazards that threaten cultural heritage formed a central aspect of this study. The findings reveal notable deficiencies in the legal framework, inadequate institutional capacities, limited resources, and insufficient training for disaster response. The results underscore the pressing need for improved inter-institutional cooperation and the development of technical and logistical capabilities. To address these issues, the study recommends aligning legal frameworks with international standards, securing increased funding for technical resources, and implementing specialized training programs for institutional staff. This article makes a significant contribution to advancing the understanding and enhancement of the cultural heritage protection system in Serbia, offering actionable insights and a robust foundation for further research and strategic development in this critical area. Conclusion: The study delves into the complexities of safeguarding Serbia’s cultural heritage, especially in the context of natural hazards. It becomes clear that, although there is a basic legal and institutional structure in place, significant shortcomings exist in putting these into practice. The research points out that the current regulations are somewhat vague and not particularly adaptable, particularly regarding the protection of movable cultural assets like museum collections. Furthermore, a lack of coordination between different institutions and limited use of advanced technologies – such as 3D scanning and early warning systems – contribute to the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites. A major contribution of this research lies in highlighting the necessity for a more forward-thinking and cohesive strategy for cultural heritage protection. This means not only updating legal frameworks to include specific disaster protocols but also boosting collaboration between institutions and actively engaging the community. By encouraging a shared sense of responsibility within local communities and forming international partnerships, Serbia can work towards creating a more robust system to preserve its cultural assets. This study also suggests multiple paths for future exploration and action. One of the primary needs is for thorough, quantitative analyses that evaluate how effective current protective measures are and how different factors impact the vulnerability of cultural heritage. Long-term studies to monitor changes in institutional frameworks and disaster preparedness could provide valuable insights into the progression of disaster management practices. Moreover, integrating modern technologies and training programs into the everyday operations of cultural heritage institutions is crucial for fostering long-term resilience. From a wider perspective, the research emphasizes the importance of cultural heritage as a key element of community identity and resilience. Protecting these assets goes beyond legal and technical efforts; it involves building a societal commitment to their preservation. By involving local communities and raising public awareness, initiatives to protect cultural heritage can be made more sustainable and effective against future threats. In summary, the study advocates for a multidisciplinary and comprehensive approach to cultural heritage protection in Serbia. Addressing gaps in legal frameworks, enhancing institutional coordination, adopting new technologies, and involving the community can collectively strengthen the resilience of cultural heritage sites. This research lays the groundwork for developing thorough strategies that could be applied not only in Serbia but also in other regions facing similar challenges. From a scientific perspective, this study adds to the growing conversation about DRM by offering concrete data on how vulnerable Serbia’s cultural heritage is. It highlights the importance of taking an interdisciplinary approach – blending heritage conservation with cutting-edge disaster preparedness techniques. This approach not only opens doors for future research but also encourages exploring innovative technologies that could safeguard both the tangible and intangible aspects of cultural heritage. On a more social level, the research underscores that protecting cultural heritage is not just about laws and technology – it is about people. The involvement of local communities, who hold deep connections to these cultural landmarks, is crucial. By raising awareness and educating the public on the importance of preserving heritage, a stronger sense of responsibility can be fostered, ensuring these efforts endure. This, in turn, will help strengthen both the cultural and social resilience of communities across Serbia, building a deeper commitment to preparing for and responding to disasters when they strike. *Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Gole, S., Renner, R., Jakovljević, V., & Lukić, T. (2024). Qualitative insights into cultural heritage protection in Serbia: Addressing legal and institutional gaps for disaster risk resilience. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220755.* [
Cvetković, V. M., Gole, S., Renner, R., Jakovljević, V., & Lukić, T. (2024). Qualitative insights into cultural heritage protection in Serbia: Addressing legal and institutional gaps for disaster risk resilience. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220755.
Seismic Hazard Resilience, Preparedness and Response Capacity in Montenegro
A qualitative community-resilience study examining preparedness and response capabilities in Montenegrin communities exposed to seismic hazards.
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Abstract
Enhancing resilience against seismic hazards in earthquake-prone regions is essential for reducing the devastating impacts of disasters. Seismic resilience refers to a community’s ability to withstand and recover from earthquake impacts, while preparedness gaps are the areas where current measures are insufficient to effectively respond to or mitigate earthquake damage. This study focuses on Montenegro – a region with frequent seismic activity – aiming to assess resilience levels, identify critical gaps in preparedness, and evaluate the effectiveness of existing response strategies. Using qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews, the research gathered insights from residents of Montenegro’s most vulnerable cities: Nikšić, Podgorica, Bar, Kotor, Cetinje, Budva, Herceg Novi, and Berane. Participants, chosen for their first-hand experience with significant earthquake impacts, provided valuable perspectives on various aspects of resilience, from local government response to individual preparedness. This research revealed significant disparities in resilience across communities: for instance, approximately 62.5% of the respondents highlighted inadequate education as a barrier to effective earthquake preparedness, and only 37.5% reported awareness of basic earthquake response procedures. Furthermore, while some communities, such as urban areas with accessible services, reported higher preparedness levels, rural areas showed deficiencies, with 50% of the respondents from these areas identifying a lack of organized drills and limited public awareness initiatives. These findings underscore the urgent need for community-specific preparedness programs and enhancements in both structural resilience and public education to bolster community readiness effectively. Also, findings highlight the need for customized preparedness programs tailored to specific community needs, alongside improvements in structural safety measures and educational outreach. The study underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach involving detailed risk assessments, community-focused preparedness training, and stronger public awareness initiatives. Furthermore, the study calls for enhanced local government capabilities to sustain proactive response measures, including rapid mobilization of emergency resources and regular disaster simulations, to build long-term resilience across communities. Conclusion: A comprehensive qualitative study presents a rich repository of data with deeper insights into Montenegro’s resilience to earthquake-related disasters. The study reveals substantial variability in seismic resilience across communities, with some areas displaying strong preparedness measures, like early-warning systems and accessible shelters, while others exhibit significant weaknesses in public awareness and institutional readiness. The findings underscore the critical need for community-specific resilience programs to address these disparities and enhance preparedness across all levels. Through in-depth interviews with residents from various seismic-prone areas, a certain level of population resilience was established. Although the majority of interviewed participants indicate a low level of resilience in Montenegro to earthquakes, many of them have not directly faced the consequences of such events. For these reasons, they largely emphasize the necessity of improving resilience strategies and implementing preventive measures at both national and local levels. On the other hand, the obtained results also point to the low effectiveness of existing safety measures, as well as the need for additional research to examine all possible impacts of such events. The study’s findings contribute to the broader theories of disaster risk management and resilience by emphasizing the importance of adaptable, community-based approaches to earthquake preparedness. The study emphasizes the need for educational and preparedness programs tailored to address each community’s unique vulnerabilities and strengths. By developing community-specific resilience measures, stakeholders can more effectively mitigate seismic risks in ways that are meaningful and practical for local residents. Increasing public awareness and strengthening local institutional readiness are crucial for enhancing resilience against seismic hazards. Public outreach initiatives, paired with improved response capabilities among local institutions, serve as foundational steps in building a robust disaster-preparedness framework. Concrete actions, such as regular community drills, targeted educational campaigns, and the integration of disaster preparedness content into school curricula, have been highlighted as actionable steps to increase public awareness and community resilience. These findings contribute to the broader disaster risk management and resilience theories by offering insight into the real-world application of resilience strategies and by underscoring the necessity of adaptable, community-centred approaches. The analysis of all the results highlights the urgent need for Montenegrin society to strengthen its preparedness, and consequently its resilience, through educational programs and plans to mitigate the effects of future earthquakes. This requires strategic and operational commitment from society to devise, implement, and put into action all structural and non-structural measures that will enhance earthquake resilience. On the other hand, the study in many segments also emphasizes the importance of raising public awareness, as well as local and regional institutional readiness, to lift the low level of awareness about such disasters to a slightly higher level. The insights gained from this study can be effectively applied to other regions facing similar seismic risks. Policymakers and emergency planners in earthquake-prone areas can adapt these recommendations to their unique geographical and social landscapes. Raising awareness would also enable a more rational perception of the risks associated with such disasters, which would lead to increased motivation for elevating the culture of resilience to a higher level. Certainly, a layered approach at all societal levels, comprehensive institutional commitment, and involvement represent essential prerequisites for building such resilience. In addition, by promoting a proactive stance on resilience and strengthening education, infrastructure, and community engagement, Montenegro can improve its safety protocols and preparedness, fostering a more effective response to inevitable seismic activities. This study provides specific guidance for policymakers, particularly on implementing recommendations in ways that align with existing disaster preparedness frameworks. Policy adjustments to include resilience metrics, localized educational programs, and clear roles for community stakeholders are essential. Integrating these recommendations presents challenges, such as securing financial resources and public buy-in. However, solutions including public–private partnerships and engaging community leaders may help overcome these obstacles. Limitations, such as the focus on qualitative data and the sample size, suggest areas for further research. Future studies could include quantitative assessments and larger samples to broaden the findings and test their generalizability. The high scientific and societal value of this research is reflected in its numerous implications for scientific and social development. The conducted research has generated a fundamental empirical database that can serve as a comparison of resilience levels between the region and the international community. The research marks the beginning of a pioneering endeavour for the further development of instruments for conducting quantitative and qualitative studies in the field of disaster risk management. In addition, the study contributes to the broader field of disaster (risk) management by providing a methodological framework that can be applied to assess and analyse community resilience when facing seismic challenges. It is also worth noting that the nuanced insights gained from the diverse experiences of Montenegrin municipalities enrich the academic discourse on preparedness and resilience to disasters, suggesting pathways for further research. Contrary to the scientific implications, the societal implications are highly significant for policymakers and decision-makers at all levels, as they clearly highlight the weaknesses and challenges that must be overcome. The findings of the study can be considered when creating programs to improve the culture of resilience among the population. As such, they can be grounded and based on all identified shortcomings and clarifications derived from the comprehensive analysis of Montenegro’s population resilience to earthquakes. This study highlights gaps, particularly in understanding how local community characteristics influence resilience. Further research is needed to examine the effectiveness of tailored education programs and preparedness drills, and how these interventions impact overall disaster resilience at the community level. Specific areas for future investigation include the long-term effects of educational outreach programs, the role of community leaders in resilience-building, and the effectiveness of policy interventions in fostering a culture of preparedness. Such research could deepen understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to sustainable resilience. The variability in preparedness across different localities suggests that response strategies must be flexible and adapted to local needs. This study illustrates that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be effective; instead, response plans should reflect community-specific factors to optimize resilience and reduce risks. *Reference: Cvetković, V., Grozdanić, G., Milanović, M., Marković, S. & Lukić, T. (2024). Understanding seismic hazard resilience in Montenegro: A qualitative analysis of community preparedness and response capabilities. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220729. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0729* [
Cvetković, V., Grozdanić, G., Milanović, M., Marković, S., Lukić, T. (2024). Understanding Seismic Hazard Resilience in Montenegro: A Qualitative Analysis of Community Preparedness and Response Capabilities. *Open Geosciences*,* 16*(1), 20220729.
Flash-Flood Potential and Geospatial Risk Analytics in the Kratovska Reka Catchment
An advanced geospatial project identifying flash-flood-prone areas in North Macedonia through integrated spatial analytics and a flash-flood potential index.
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Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors. Conclusion: As mentioned earlier, it was observed that in an area identified as highly prone to flash flooding by FFPI, actual occurrences of flash floods were infrequent, which aligns with expectations based on the gathered data. This suggests that the findings from this section may not accurately represent the real situation, where extreme flash flooding is anticipated. This FFPI model incorporates additional variables such as Slope, Lithology, Land Use, and Vegetation Index. Previous studies have mainly focused on areas within river catchments where natural flash floods occur, which differs from the focus of this study. The study area is situated in a region where floods are predominantly caused by human activities, termed as urban flash floods. Infrastructure like drainage systems significantly influences urban flash floods. The absence of critical factors in this study may have impacted the outcomes. Precipitation is also vital to consider since prolonged and heavy rainfall typically triggers flash floods by elevating storm water levels. Because of its intensity and spatial distribution, precipitation represents one of the most essential flash flood conditioning validation factors. Integration of WorldClim 2 precipitation data [40] with historical flood observations was conducted to enhance flood risk assessment. Thus, according to Aleksova et al. [7], intense and heavy rainfall often leads to the overflowing of the Kratovska Reka from its riverbed and the occurrence of flash floods. In summary, precipitation, especially heavy and intense precipitation, plays a central role in the validation of flash flood hotspot areas. The yearly precipitation in the catchment averages around 728.4 mm, peaking in May and November and dropping to a low in August. Approximately 57% of the annual precipitation occurs during the vegetation period, with spring and autumn receiving the most rainfall. Only about 9% of days see heavy rainfall exceeding 20.0 mm, with the possibility of reaching up to 110 mm per day. In winter, snow blankets the upper catchment, melting quickly in spring. To validate flash flood risks, intense rainfall data are crucial. However, lacking a pluviometry station in the area, we employed GIS Remote Sensing modeling and geospatial analysis. By overlaying average precipitation data with hotspot zones of historical data, we found that high-risk areas typically receive 700–750 mm of precipitation. The studies [38,61] on hazard areas in the catchment also validate this result. Although average rainfall alone isn’t sufficient to forecast flash floods, it often coincides with areas experiencing lower average rainfall. This implies that regions with reduced rainfall typically have less vegetation and a slower recuperation from geohazards. Furthermore, factors such as geological composition, and historical deforestation over the past century increase erosion risks. The sub-catchment Latišnica (marked by a dashed line; Figure 12) has most of the hotspot areas in the whole catchment. The FFPI is a model that provides an index ranging from 1 to 10, and given that the Kratovska Reka catchment’s FFPI is at 49.34% for an index value of 5, which is the median, it can be classified as being at medium risk for flash floods. While the results are not entirely satisfactory, they do demonstrate the potential given that the primary factors have been considered. By incorporating an additional factor, such as the Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Soil Index, more reasonable results may be obtained [32]. Furthermore, future research could integrate the Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) Method to enhance the robustness of the analysis [62]. Given changes in both natural and human-influenced factors, it’s advisable to establish a monitoring and control system to oversee ground conditions [63]. New technologies enable detailed surface data collection, which, when processed through GIS, can be used to create predictive models. Such analysis is crucial for hazard prevention or mitigation, forming a vital part of spatial analysis [18]. However, the FFPI index overlooks factors like riverbed debris, landslides, and climate change impacts, necessitating comprehensive analyses with high-quality datasets and multiple methods to compare results. Despite each method having its pros and cons, employing various approaches can enhance effectiveness in assessing flash flood risks. It’s essential to select the most suitable method for each situation to optimize solutions for the problem at hand. Obtaining and analyzing the databases is straightforward, facilitated by both proprietary and open-source software accessible to spatial analysis professionals. The model introduced in this research could serve as a valuable approach for spatial planning endeavors, offering practical insights for land management and aiding local authorities in flash flood risk reduction efforts [34]. The methodology devised in this study is applicable across various contexts and can be implemented on a national scale within any river catchment. This is particularly relevant given the dynamic nature of land use and the rising occurrence of extreme weather events [22]. To mitigate the detrimental impacts of flash floods, it’s crucial to identify and enact protective measures using a blend of GIS technology and on-site investigation. Collaborative efforts between local government bodies, alongside provincial and national services, can allocate resources for the deployment of biological and biotechnical interventions. These measures aim to substantially decrease the risk of severe torrential flooding in affected areas [10]. The combination of GIS and remote sensing has resulted in a potent tool for investigating and evaluating the potential for flash floods. The findings obtained through the FFPI method accurately reflect the risk of flash floods in the study area. This serves as a scientific foundation for managing natural resources at the local level [33]. Higher resolution historical data are needed for ROC curve analysis to quantitatively evaluate the flash flood model’s accuracy. Standardizing and implementing other methodologies would enhance the monitoring and identification of natural hazards in North Macedonia on local and regional levels. This underscores the need for developing vulnerability assessments and management programs in southeastern Europe [24]. Also, understanding the barriers restraining the effective operation of flood early warning systems is crucial for improving disaster preparedness, minimizing loss of life and property, and enhancing community resilience to flood events [64]. For future research is relevant to incorporate machine learning methods to determine individual parameters’ influence on flash flood occurrences more precisely [65]. These enhancements will enable more accurate susceptibility modeling, reducing subjectivity in assigning weighting factors and increasing the relevance of results for the specific regional area. *Reference: Aleksova, B., Milevski, I., Mijalov, R., Marković, S., Cvetković, V. & Lukić, T. (2024). Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220684. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0684 * [
Aleksova, B., Milevski, I., Mijalov, R., Marković, S., Cvetković, V. & Lukić, T. (2024). Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220684.
Public-Health Capacity Assessment of Local Self-Governments in Serbia
A local-governance research programme assessing public-health capacity and institutional readiness of Serbian local self-governments.
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Abstract
The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health capacities in local self-government units in 2021. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status. Conclusion: The results confirmed the effectiveness of implementing health councils in the areas of promotion and prevention, as well as in the organization and functioning of the healthcare system. In future works, LSGU should be supported in their choices of effective programs and priorities. Although a large percentage of local governments reported having an institutionally provided advisor for the protection of patients’ rights, a small number of patient complaints indicated that it is necessary to empower citizens to exercise their rights guaranteed by law. On the other side, the results of the study can be considered relevant to the regular monitoring and evaluation of indicators in the field of public health and in regard to health improvement at the local level, as well as assessing the capacities of cities and municipalities to implement their given responsibilities. The survey comprehensively assessed self-government units’ competencies in all areas of public health. The results obtained from the analysis of the work of the health councils, the selected indicators for each area of public health, and the effects of the support of the SCTM and the representatives of the public health institutes provided clear guidelines for establishing effective monitoring systems, planning the activities of the actors involved (LSGU, the SCTM, and public health institutes) and evaluating their effects. Areas of public health that were identified as needing special support included the environment, workplace environments, and emergency situations. The environment is the most complex area and probably the most important because it includes the entire population in each local self-government area. First of all, it is necessary to conduct health risk assessments in each municipality and adopt special environmental improvement programs based on the unit’s priorities. In general, the most important issues identified was water—the provision of proper drinking water in cities and small village waterworks, the availability of proper water in public facilities, as well as providing solutions regarding wastewater for both communal and industrial facilities. The second most important issue was air pollution measurements, which must be conducted continuously and for specific pollutants, and which were provided in less than a third of the LSGU. Further, it is essential to pay attention to the category in which the LSGU is located when we want to follow the development of this self-governing unit within the framework of public health. The development category indicator is very important from the point of view of local self-government, especially when it comes to planning its further development. It is necessary to help local self-governments to develop plans for the care of the population in crisis and emergency situations because the occurrence of unwanted events (such as floods, mass migrations, chemical spills, and pandemics) is becoming more frequent. The results of this study showed that the participation of public health representatives in the councils resulted in the councils having better access to analyses of health status and indicators of various areas of public health. Establishing good communication between partners at the local level contributes to the improved effectiveness of the activities undertaken. *Reference – Cvetković, V.M., Tanasić, J.; Ocal, A., Živković-Šulović, M., Ćurić, N., Milojević, S., Knežević, S. (2023). The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia. Lex localis – Journal of Local Self Government, 21(4), *1201-1234 [
Cvetković, V.M., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Živković-Šulović, M., Ćurić, N., Milojević, S., Knežević, S. (2023). The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia. Lex Localis, 21(4), 1201-1234.
Comparative Public Reactions to COVID-19 in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal and Serbia
An international comparative study of citizen reactions to the COVID-19 disaster across four countries, providing evidence on behavioural and cross-cultural differences during a global emergency.
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Abstract
A new coronavirus emerged in December 2019 and quickly spread globally, causing unprecedented social, psychological, and economic damage. This study aimed to investigate people’s emotional reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset for this study consisted of 2,013 adults (962 males and 1,053 females) in four countries (Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia). A snowball sampling technique that focused on recruiting the general public living in countries during the COVID-19 epidemic was utilized. An online survey was disseminated at the same time, in March–April 2020, when many countries were exposed to COVID-19. Results indicated that, with regard to gender, females had more psychological reactions to COVID-19 than did males. People who had one child were more stressed than people with no children. Extensive knowledge of COVID-19 was found to trigger more anxiety. Results showed that stress and overall emotional reactions increased with age. The findings can be used to develop psychological interventions to improve mental health and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 epidemic. Keywords: pandemic; stress; anxiety; depression; adult, COVID-19; emotion; disaster; disease. Conclusions: This study provides timely assessment of the risk perception of adults during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. During the study, the respondents rated their psychological situation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic can provide valuable insights into how to handle future epidemics. These include proper hand hygiene, isolation of infected individuals, isolation of individuals with suspected symptoms or fever, and preventing direct contact with suspected animal reservoir hosts. Our results have several immediate and significant public health implications. First, female gender, being more educated and knowledgeable, married, older, and geographical differences were associated with a greater psychological impact of the outbreak and higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression at various levels. Second, male gender, being single, being less educated and knowledgeable, younger, and geographic differences were associated with a smaller psychological impact of the outbreak and lower levels of stress, anxiety, and depression at various levels. Specific conditions of countries could be associated with lower or higher psychological impacts. Countries with aging populations and social and political issues may have more stress, anxiety, and depression while countries with younger populations and few political problems may have less psychological impact related to pandemic diseases. More research should be carried out on the development of effective methods to provide early and timely detection of such diseases’ psychological symptoms. A number of future studies can be conducted to collect more scientific information on this area. First of all, research based on direct experience with the disease can be conducted in the future, which can make a significant contribution to better understanding adults or children’s fear of pandemics. Second, the relationship between the economic situation and emotional reactions of participants to the pandemic can be investigated. Our findings can be used to formulate psychological interventions to improve mental health and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 epidemic, such as cognitive behavior therapy and mindfulness-based therapy (Ho et al. Citation2020). Our findings directly inform on the emotional reactions during the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has several limitations. In consideration of the time-sensitivity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we adopted an online survey with snowball sampling strategy. This sampling strategy is not based on a random selection; thus, the study populations do not reflect the actual pattern of the general population. To preserve individual rights, we were not allowed to collect personal information from the respondents. As our study does not reflect the actual pattern of the general population, the conclusion was less generalizable. Furthermore, a longitudinal study would show temporal changes during the COVID-19 pandemic (Wang et al. Citation2020b). Besides this, the participants’ self-reported levels of emotional reactions may be insufficient evidence to fully assess their psychological situation. *Reference – Öcal, A., Cvetković, V. M., Baytiyeh, H., Tedim, F. M. S., & Zečević, M. (2020). Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: a comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 1864-1885. doi:10.1080/19475705.2020.1811405* [
Öcal, A., Cvetković, V. M., Baytiyeh, H., Tedim, F. M. S., & Zečević, M. (2020). Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: A comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. *Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11*(1), 1864–1885.
Public Perception of Police Behaviour During the COVID-19 Disaster in Serbia
A policing and disaster-management research project examining how citizens perceived police behaviour during the COVID-19 emergency in Serbia.
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Abstract
The aim of the study is to determine the perception of general public on the Serbian police behaviors in combating COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the perception of the citizens how successful the police units were in fulfilling their tasks. Design/methodology/approach: Due to the state of emergency declared due to COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the restriction of movement and the need for social distance, the data collection for this study had to be conducted via the online survey platform (Google.doc). The study was conducted during March–April 2020, only four weeks after the state of emergency was declared. The participants were invited to complete the online questionnaire in their native language by using the snowball sampling strategy focused on recruiting the general public via social media tools. Findings: Considering the fact that police officers are not sufficiently prepared and trained to respond in these specific circumstances, it is necessary to improve their engagement in the future by conducting appropriate training, procuring adequate resources, implementing adequate planning activities, etc. The results of the multivariate regressions of public perception preparedness subscale show that the most important predictor is gender and it explains 23.6% of the variance in preparedness subscale. The remaining variables did not have significant effects on preparedness. This model with all mentioned independent variables explains 6.1% of the variance of preparedness subscale. Originality/value: Bearing in mind that there were no completed studies on public perception of police behaviors about the COVID-19 disaster in Serbia, the research has a considerable scientific and social importance. Conclusion: Studies related to the role of the police during an epidemic have not been found in theliterature so far. The aim of the authors was to determine how citizens see the work of thepolice during the pandemic. The research proved that the police play an important role incombating the COVID-19 pandemic; the citizens trust the police, but the officers are nottrained enough for work in such an emergency. In the following period, more attention shouldbe paid to the education of police officers for performing tasks during various disasters asepidemics and pandemics. It is necessary to implement training for police officers, startingfrom the use of protective equipment (putting it on/taking off), recognizing symptoms of thedisease and treating citizens infected with a particular virus. In addition to training, policeunits must have sufficient material resources (masks, gloves, safety glasses, etc.) from thefirst moment of the epidemic. It is necessary to establish work plans in such an emergencysituation so that in the future it is clear who, how and when to act, in order to avoid situationsin which police officers act differently, sometimes inappropriately, in the field. Theorganization of work must be adapted to new situations. In order to reduce the possibletransmission of viruses among police officers, shifts of police officers should start and end atdifferent times. The number of shifts during 24 h should be reduced, e.g. by extending patrolwork from 8 to 12 h. Police officers who have a history of chronic diseases should be sent tothe annual or paid leave.The flaw of the survey would be that it is limited to the territory of Serbia and does nothave a large sample of respondents. Notwithstanding the foregoing, this research may be thestarting point for conducting future research, especially comparative ones, those that willpresent the role of police during the pandemic in other countries. It would contribute toimproving police behavior by identifying best practices during the pandemic, but also byhighlighting the mistakes of police units during the previous period. *Reference – Janković, B., & Cvetković Vladimir, M. (2020). Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19 – The case of Serbia. Policing: An International Journal, 43(6), 979-992. doi:10.1108/PIJPSM-05-2020-0072* [
Janković, B., & Cvetković, V. M. (2020). Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19 – The case of Serbia. *Policing: An International Journal, 43*(6), 979–992.
Terrorism Risk Perception and Public Decision-Making in Belgrade
A public-risk research project examining perceptions of terrorist threats in Belgrade and their implications for individual, community and public-authority decision-making.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Household Earthquake Preparedness Across Selected Municipalities in Serbia
A household-level earthquake-preparedness study investigating readiness, knowledge and resilience across selected Serbian municipalities.
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Abstract
The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process. Conclusion: When considering the results of the previously conducted analyses, it is concluded that the sources of information about natural disasters (family, school, television, Internet, radio, video games, and lectures) influence the perceptions of secondary school students with respect to their knowledge about earthquakes such that those respondents who acquired a statistically significantly higher percentage of information believe they know what an earthquake is. One exception is video games, as they influence the perception of knowledge in a way that respondents who have not played feel they know what an earthquake is, whereas those who have played video games believe that they do not know what an earthquake is. Also, the exception is the radio as a source of information, which is used by secondary school students to a lesser extent and which does not affect the attitude of the respondents. Accordingly, we conclude that the actual knowledge of secondary school students about earthquakes is affected by lectures, school, television, and the Internet, and it is not affected by radio, video games, or stories from family members. A statistically higher percentage of those with no personal experience with the consequences of natural disasters do not know what an earthquake is. Although the personal experiences of those respondents who have witnessed the consequences of earthquakes affect their knowledge of earthquakes, personal experiences of the effects of landslides tend to mislead the subjects such that, for the most part, their knowledge of earthquakes is not affected and they still do not know what constitutes an earthquake. This result is plausible for two reasons: first, people learn best from personal experience, and second, as the effects of earthquakes and landslides are manifested through the movement and shifting of soil, it is expected that respondents describe the consequences of an earthquake. However, the experiences of immediate family members, for the most part, do not affect the knowledge of the respondents as to what constitutes an earthquake (with the exception of the father). This is likely because, in Serbia (and therefore in Belgrade), families are predominantly patriarchal. Thus, the father is the head of the family and the person responsible for the safety of the family, and as such, it is logical that the father transfers his personal experiences to his children with special interest due to his concern that they remain safe in the event of a natural disaster. Secondary school students who do not feel safe from natural disasters while at school, to a greater extent, exhibit a lack of understanding and knowledge with respect to what constitutes an earthquake. Moreover, there is a dependence between the knowledge the respondents have about earthquakes and their desire to learn more about natural disasters. In other words, a statistically higher percentage of those students who know what an earthquake is indicate a desire to enhance their knowledge. It is further noted that there is a dependent relationship between the variables “acquisition of knowledge about natural disasters through educational films and series” and “knowledge about earthquakes.” Therefore, the level of knowledge of secondary school students with respect to the earthquake as a natural disaster is influenced by television, the Internet, and school lectures. Thus, it is suggested that encouraging secondary school students in Belgrade to participate in the clean-up and rebuilding of an area after an earthquake would increase their knowledge of the consequences of such disasters. Moreover, increasing the knowledge of secondary school students would, in turn, affect their sense of security. The results suggest that secondary school students who know what an earthquake is and are aware of the possible dangers of natural disasters have an increased desire to further their learning. Thus, secondary school students should be trained primarily through educational films and series. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragićević, S., Petrović, M., Mijaković, S., Jakovljević, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about earthquakes as natural disasters. Polish journal of environmental studies, 24(4), 1553-1561. doi:10.15244/pjoes/39702* [
Cvetković, V. M., Ronan, K., Shaw, R., Filipović, M., Mano, R., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2019). Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia: A study of selected municipalities. *Acta Geographica, 59*(2), 28–42.
Citizen Attitudes Toward Epidemic-Induced Emergency Situations in Serbia
A public-health and emergency-management study examining citizen attitudes toward epidemic-related emergency situations in Serbia.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Stress, Coping and Gender Among Future Emergency-Relief Specialists
A psychosocial preparedness study examining gender differences in stress intensity and coping strategies among students preparing for emergency-relief professions.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Police–Private Security Cooperation and Institutional Relations in Serbia
A security-governance research project examining relations between police and private-security officers and the implications for institutional cooperation.
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Abstract
In the last few years, under the influence of various circumstances, the demand for the private security industry has increased in Serbia. The aim of this research is to examine the extent and quality of cooperation between members of the public and private security sector as the mutual perception of its members because their relations are important for establishing a safe environment for citizens. The survey was conducted from February to June 2019 using a questionnaire among 190 police officers and 178 security personnel. The results of this research showed that mutual relations between the private security personnel and police officers are satisfactory, but also that members of private security look at these relations from a brighter side and have a very positive attitude towards members of the police, while members of the police view these relations more negatively. The results of this research can be used for planning campaigns to improve the relationships between police officers and security personnel. Conclusions: Serbia is among the last countries in Europe in which legal acts regulating the fieldof private security were adopted. In fact, private security is still in its early develop-ment stages. This also affects the development of the relationship between the policeand private security, as this research has shown. These relations are not bad but arestill not at the level that the professional, as well as the general public, would likethem to be. Members of private security look at those relations with more optimism,while members of the police have a more realistic view of the problems that accom-pany those relations. Police officers do not perceive private security as equal part-ners and do not have much confidence in their work. Due to all the above, it is neces-sary to take certain measures to improve these relations. One of the measures couldbe the abolition of the monopoly of the Serbian police on the control and regulationof the work of private security. It is necessary to leave certain levels of control toprivate security itself, and for certain segments to remain under the jurisdiction ofthe police. The conduct of examinations for obtaining licenses for private securityshould be organized in such a way that the commissions are of mixed composition.It is necessary to significantly increase the number of classes for training mem-bers of private security, to improve their knowledge and skills, but also to get themacquainted with the duties of police officers. It is recommended that representativesof the police, with extensive experience, and the Chamber of Private Security com-pose training programs together, as this would improve the training plans. Privatesecurity should promote its work in public, in campaigns similar to those conductedby the police to bring their work closer to the citizens, and sometimes, it would bedesirable to include members of the police in them. Joint training could also help toimprove relations, it would improve the knowledge and skills of participants, allowthem to exchange experiences, and in that way gain a better picture of each other.Also, in the training programs of police officers, it is necessary to include one seg-ment that refers to the rights and obligations of members of private security, becauseit is necessary for situations when they are engaged in mutual tasks, which will bemore and more in the future.The limitation of this research is that it was only conducted on the territory ofSerbia, with a relatively low number of respondents who completed the question-naire, and not in a larger number of countries. Having in mind the imbalance inthe sampling of participants (objective and mentioned reasons) that created the biasbetween the smaller group (178) of security personnel participants against the largergroup of (190) police officers participants, we compared the obtained relative valuesof results. However, the findings of this research can help us assess situations andimprove police and private security relations, as a basis for further research, espe-cially in developing countries in transition, but also in countries where there is along tradition of private security. *Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V. M., Milojević, S., & Ivanović, Z. (2021). Relations between police and private security officers: a case study of Serbia. Security journal. doi:10.1057/s41284-021-00289-z* [
Janković, B., Cvetković, V. M., Milojević, S., & Ivanović, Z. (2021). Relations between police and private security officers: A case study of Serbia. *Security Journal*. https\://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-020-00236-z
First Responders in the Western Balkans: Capacity and Preparedness for a Resilient Future
A regional research stream focused on the preparedness, operational capability and resilience of first responders across the Western Balkans.
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Abstract
First responders are crucial to disaster risk management in the Western Balkans, but their capacity and preparedness vary significantly across countries and sectors. To enable comparable, evidence-based insights, this review uses a harmonized Readiness to Respond (R2R) framework across five key sectors: firefighting and rescue, police, emergency medical services (EMS), civil protection, and armed forces. It evaluates national preparedness in the Western Balkans with the goals to (i) assess sectoral and system-wide readiness against international standards; (ii) standardize measurement through the R2R index; and (iii) identify key gaps and practical opportunities to strengthen resilience. The review combines quantitative and qualitative data across six dimensions: Staffing, Equipment & Infrastructure, Training & Education, Legislation & Strategies, Coordination & Governance, and Main Challenges. Sector scores range from 0 to 60, with an overall or system score from 0 to 360, normalized across tiers. Data sources include official documents, international reports, and secondary literature, supplemented by expert judgment when data are missing or inconsistent. No country reaches high readiness (≥281/360); Serbia (275/360) and Montenegro (270/360) score highest but still fall within the medium readiness category. Furthermore, Albania (243/360) is moderate, while North Macedonia (220/360) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (205/360) lag. Police and armed forces generally outperform EMS and civil protection, which face staffing shortages, aging equipment, uneven training, and fragmented governance. Firefighting capacity varies greatly, with Montenegro excelling while others demonstrate modest capability. Montenegro exhibits the most balanced overall profile, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina ranks lowest due to structural fragmentation, with Serbia and Albania in the middle, and North Macedonia trailing slightly. Four main regional constraints are identified: outdated equipment and infrastructure, persistent human resource shortages (notably in EMS and specialized rescue), weak multi-level coordination, and reliance on external aid for modernization and training. Moving from moderate to high readiness requires lifecycle-based fleet renewal, expanding accredited training and retention programs, harmonizing SOPs and metrics, establishing integrated asset and incident registries, and defining volunteer roles. Countries need to shift from donation-based procurement to multi-year, standards-driven capability development, co-financed through EU/NATO/UN mechanisms. Given shared risks and limited scale, cross-border cooperation—such as mutual aid, pooled aerial firefighting and CBRN assets, and joint exercises—offers the most cost-effective way to build interoperable, resilient first responder systems across the Western Balkans. Conclusions\:This review systematically assessed first-responder capacities in the Western Balkans, focusing on five key sectors—firefighting and rescue, police, EMS, civil protection, and armed forces—using the Readiness to Respond (R2R) framework. By combining sector-specific (0–60) and overall (0–360) indices, the study provided both detailed intra-sector analysis and broad cross-country compari-sons. The comparison tables revealed notable disparities within and across countries. Firefighting and rescue services showed the most significant variation: Montenegro achieved perfect readiness (60/60), while Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia faced significant gaps due to frag-mentation, outdated equipment, and dependence on volunteers. Serbia and Albania ranked mid-level, hindered by staff shortages and limited aerial firefighting. Police forces generally performed better, with Serbia (47/60) and Montenegro (45/60) leading; however, issues such as politicization, corruption, and uneven rural coverage persisted. EMS remained the weakest sector, with scores ranging from 26 to 37 out of 60, struggling with staffing, aging fleets, and a lack of standardized protocols, although Albania made progress with recent reforms. Civil protection systems varied and faced resource constraints, with Bosnia and Herzegovina scoring 25/60, Serbia 32/60, and Mon-tenegro 35/60—better but still underfunded. The armed forces offered moderate stability, with Ser-bia’s larger, mixed-capacity forces (40/60) contrasting with the smaller, NATO-integrated, resource-limited militaries in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania. On a cross-sectoral level, Montenegro (41.2/60) stood out as the most balanced system, driven by strong firefighting and police sectors, while Bosnia and Herzegovina (29.5/60) scored lowest due to systemic fragmentation. Serbia (36.4/60), Albania (35.6/60), and North Macedonia (32.4/60) re-mained mid-range. Composite scores echoed this pattern: Serbia (275/360) and Montenegro (270/360) ranked highest, but still fell within the medium readiness category. Albania (243/360) was moderate, while North Macedonia (220/360) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (205/360) lagged behind. None of the countries reached high readiness levels (≥281/360), and all stayed at a medium lev-el. Sectoral imbalances persist, with police and armed forces appearing relatively stronger, whereas EMS and civil protection remain critical challenges. Institutional fragmentation and dualist struc-tures, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, hamper coordination. Common systemic issues include aging equipment, human-resource shortages, weak coordination, and reli-ance on external donors for training and modernization. On a positive note, practices like Montene-gro’s firefighting, Serbia’s police and armed forces, and Albania’s EMS reforms set promising ex-amples. While legal frameworks exist regionally, their implementation remains inconsistent, with strategies often delayed, underfunded, or fragmented. The regional outlook emphasizes the im-portance of cross-border cooperation, mutual aid, and harmonized standards in addressing shared risks and resource limitations. Progressing toward high readiness requires a systematic fleet renewal, lifecycle maintenance, expanded accredited training, effective staff retention strategies, harmonized procedures, integrat-ed asset and incident registries, stronger volunteer integration, and a shift from donation-based procurement to sustainable, multi-year investments. Given shared vulnerabilities, pooling special-ized capacities, such as aerial firefighting and CBRN units, across borders and conducting joint ex-ercises is especially crucial. This study faced limitations due to the inconsistent and incomplete na-ture of the data. Expert judgment was used cautiously to ensure reliability; however, the results should be viewed as indicative. Future efforts should institutionalize regular R2R benchmarking, expand indicators to include response times and survival rates, and incorporate lessons from com-plex emergencies into doctrine, training, and investments. The Western Balkans shows moderate preparedness, with notable strengths and systemic weaknesses. Without sustained, coordinated investments in personnel, equipment, governance, and data systems, progress will be uneven and dependent on the generosity of donors. Enhancing re-gional cooperation and aligning capacities with EU and NATO standards offer the best path toward a resilient future for first responders and the communities they serve. *Reference: Cvetković, V. M. (2025). First responders in the Western Balkans: Strengthening Capacities and Preparedness for a Resilient Future. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 361-384. https\://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.19* [
Cvetković, V. M. (2025). First responders in the Western Balkans: Strengthening Capacities and Preparedness for a Resilient Future. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(2), 361–384.
Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Overcoming Barriers to Build Stronger Communities
Research on the barriers that limit effective community-based disaster risk reduction and on pathways toward stronger, more participatory local resilience.
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Abstract
Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) plays a vital role in strengthening local communities’ resilience against natural hazards and man-made disasters. This paper aims to examine the role of CBDRR in enhancing the resilience of local communities to both natural hazards and man-made disasters. It emphasises the crucial importance of active community involvement throughout all stages of disaster management, from preparedness and mitigation to response and recovery. Furthermore, the paper also looks into the key factors that contribute to the successful implementation of CBDRR, including institutional support, capacity development, inclusive strategies, and modern technologies. Additionally, it discusses the challenges and opportunities in building strong partnerships between local communities and external stakeholders, which are essential for ensuring the sustainability of these efforts. Finally, the paper offers recommendations to improve the effectiveness of CBDRR initiatives, drawing on insights gained from past disaster experiences. The findings highlight the necessity of continuous monitoring and evaluation of CBDRR programmes to maintain their relevance and effectiveness as risks evolve. Incorporating lessons learned from past disasters into future planning also plays a crucial role in helping communities strengthen their resilience over time. Ultimately, by fostering collaboration between communities, governments, and various organisations, CBDRR lays the foundation for a comprehensive disaster management framework capable of meeting future challenges and supporting long-term sustainable development. Conclusions: The deployment of CBDRR programs has proven to be an effective means of strengthening communities’ resilience to disasters. By prioritising active community engagement, developing locally tailored solutions, and fostering collaboration with external partners, CBDRR empowers communities to manage their disaster preparedness and response efforts better. However, the success of these initiatives hinges on several key factors, including ongoing institutional support, continuous capacity building through education and training, and the integration of modern technologies. Moreover, ensuring that planning and implementation processes are inclusive and participatory is crucial for safeguarding the interests of all community members, particularly those who are most vulnerable. To maximise the effectiveness of CBDRR programs, it is essential to establish dependable communication systems that enable the timely sharing of risk-related information. Additionally, focusing on long-term strategies that weave disaster risk reduction into the community’s routine activities can help sustain these efforts over time. Strengthening partnerships between local communities and various organisations is another vital element, as it can provide access to additional resources, expertise, and improved coordination during disaster response operations. In light of the growing challenges posed by climate change and the increasing frequency of disasters, adopting a comprehensive, community-centred approach to disaster risk management is essential for building resilient communities that can effectively respond to and recover from future crises. Equally important is the ongoing monitoring and evaluation of CBDRR programs to ensure they remain relevant and practical over time. By regularly reassessing the risks and needs of the community, programs can be adjusted to stay responsive to evolving circumstances. Additionally, incorporating lessons learned from previous disasters into future planning efforts allows communities to build on their experiences and further enhance their resilience. This adaptive approach not only improves the immediate effectiveness of disaster risk reduction efforts but also fosters a culture of continuous learning and improvement. Therefore, creating an environment where feedback and innovation are actively integrated into CBDRR programs is crucial for ensuring their long-term success and sustainability in the face of growing disaster risks. Despite the success of CBDRR, there are gaps in integrating advanced technologies for real-time hazard assessment and damage evaluation. The current use of UAVs and remote sensing within CBDRR frameworks remains underutilised, limiting their potential for informed decision-making and timely response. Future advancements could focus on incorporating UAVs and remote sensing data to enhance hazard mapping, early warning systems, and post-disaster recovery, which will improve the overall effectiveness of CBDRR. This integration is crucial for scaling CBDRR initiatives and strengthening resilience against diverse disaster risks. *Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Aleksova, B., Renner, R., Gačić, J., Ivanov, A., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Overcoming Barriers to Build Stronger Communities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 113-130. https\://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.7* [
Cvetković, V. M., Aleksova, B., Renner, R., Gačić, J., Ivanov, A., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Overcoming Barriers to Build Stronger Communities. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(2), 113–130.
Digital Literacy and Educational Empowerment Among Rural Women in Bangladesh
A research project examining digital literacy, technology access and educational empowerment among rural women in Bangladesh.
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Abstract
This study explores how digital literacy influences the education and empowerment of rural women in Bangladesh from 2015 to 2024. Using data from surveys, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups, it examines how rural women access digital technologies, the challenges they face, and the social and educational benefits of increased digital engagement. Despite growth in digital literacy and ICT access over the past decade, rural women still face significant hurdles, including socioeconomic barriers, cultural and gender norms, limited digital infrastructure, high device costs, and unequal training opportunities. These structural issues, along with regional differences and low digital awareness, continue to widen the gender digital divide. The findings show that digital literacy significantly enhances educational participation, access to online learning, communication, and opportunities for income generation and entrepreneurship. The COVID-19 pandemic has further highlighted the importance of digital skills for maintaining educational continuity and for remote service access. However, participation remains uneven, especially among the most marginalized rural groups. The study emphasizes the need for targeted, gender-sensitive digital literacy programs that address affordability, connectivity, and cultural barriers. It also recommends policies to improve rural ICT infrastructure, expand community-based training, and foster inclusive digital ecosystems. Overall, this research provides new empirical evidence, showing that digital literacy—when combined with accessible infrastructure and culturally appropriate programs—can be a powerful tool for closing educational gaps, enabling socioeconomic mobility, and advancing gender equality in rural Bangladesh. Conclusions\:The deployment of CBDRR programs has proven to be an effective means of strengthening communities’ resilience to disasters. By prioritising active community engagement, developing locally tailored solutions, and fostering collaboration with external partners, CBDRR empowers communities to manage their disaster preparedness and response efforts better. However, the success of these initiatives hinges on several key factors, including ongoing institutional support, continuous capacity building through education and training, and the integration of modern technologies. Moreover, ensuring that planning and implementation processes are inclusive and participatory is crucial for safeguarding the interests of all community members, particularly those who are most vulnerable. To maximise the effectiveness of CBDRR programs, it is essential to establish dependable communication systems that enable the timely sharing of risk-related information. Additionally, focusing on long-term strategies that weave disaster risk reduction into the community’s routine activities can help sustain these efforts over time. Strengthening partnerships between local communities and various organisations is another vital element, as it can provide access to additional resources, expertise, and improved coordination during disaster response operations. In light of the growing challenges posed by climate change and the increasing frequency of disasters, adopting a comprehensive, community-centred approach to disaster risk management is essential for building resilient communities that can effectively respond to and recover from future crises. Equally important is the ongoing monitoring and evaluation of CBDRR programs to ensure they remain relevant and practical over time. By regularly reassessing the risks and needs of the community, programs can be adjusted to stay responsive to evolving circumstances. Additionally, incorporating lessons learned from previous disasters into future planning efforts allows communities to build on their experiences and further enhance their resilience. This adaptive approach not only improves the immediate effectiveness of disaster risk reduction efforts but also fosters a culture of continuous learning and improvement. Therefore, creating an environment where feedback and innovation are actively integrated into CBDRR programs is crucial for ensuring their long-term success and sustainability in the face of growing disaster risks. Despite the success of CBDRR, there are gaps in integrating advanced technologies for real-time hazard assessment and damage evaluation. The current use of UAVs and remote sensing within CBDRR frameworks remains underutilised, limiting their potential for informed decision-making and timely response. Future advancements could focus on incorporating UAVs and remote sensing data to enhance hazard mapping, early warning systems, and post-disaster recovery, which will improve the overall effectiveness of CBDRR. This integration is crucial for scaling CBDRR initiatives and strengthening resilience against diverse disaster risks. *Reference: Karmaker, R., & Cvetković, V. M. (2025). Digital Literacy and Educational Empowerment Among Rural Women in Bangladesh: Bridging the Technology Access Gap. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 239-262. https\://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.13* [
Karmaker, R., & Cvetković, V. M. (2025). Digital Literacy and Educational Empowerment Among Rural Women in Bangladesh: Bridging the Technology Access Gap. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(2), 239–262.
Historical Infectious-Disease Mortality Through a Medical-Geography Lens
A medical-geography research stream analysing historical infectious-disease mortality in Trnava and its implications for understanding population vulnerability.
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Abstract
This study examines mortality from infectious diseases in the Municipality of Trnava between 1911 and 1941. Conducted at the Historical Archive in Kraljevo (Serbia), the research employs historical-demographic, medical-geographic, and demographic-statistical methods. The Municipality of Trnava existed from 1839 to 1945 and encompassed six villages situated between the southeastern slopes of Golija and the Raska River valley. Analyzing the determinants of health, the population in the early decades of the 20th century faced significant challenges, including poverty, unsanitary living conditions, limited access to education, and high illiteracy rates. These adverse conditions were exacerbated by the wartime environment from 1912 to 1918, which further deteriorated living standards. The concentration of a large population in restricted areas accelerated the rapid spread of infectious diseases. The typhus epidemic in early 1915 and the Spanish flu pandemic at the end of World War I led to substantial mortality in the municipality. Local epidemics of scarlet fever, diphtheria, dysentery, and smallpox also affected mortality. This study enhances our understanding of the historical dynamics of infectious disease mortality, highlighting the interplay between environmental, geopolitical, and socio-economic determinants of health in comparable contemporary contexts. Conclusions\:The demographic and epidemiological transition of the municipality of Trnava between 1910 and 1941 reveals a population profoundly shaped by war, epidemics, and harsh socio-economic conditions. Mortality crises during the Balkan Wars, World War I, and interwar epidemics further disrupted the biological and social structure of the population, particularly through disproportionately high losses among males who participated in the military and children and young people under 19 years old. Infectious diseases, especially the Spanish influenza pandemic, typhus, diphtheria, scarlet fever, and tuberculosis, accounted for more than 40% of all deaths in the study time frame. The typhus epidemic of 1915 and the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918–1920 stand out as the deadliest events, highlighting the weakness of public health in a setting with no local medical infrastructure and weak preventive measures. Local epidemics such as scarlet fever and dysentery also contributed to persistently high child mortality. The analysis of mortality due to infectious diseases in the Trnava municipality illustrates how demographic and health outcomes in small rural areas were not only determined by natural growth and migration but also deeply impacted by wars, epidemic outbreaks, socio-economic inequality, as well as cultural practices. The experience of Trnava reflects broader patterns of demographic instability in early 20th-century Serbia and highlights the critical role of healthcare modernization, nutrition, and hygiene in shaping public health resilience. *Reference: Premović, P., Arsenović, D., Pavić, D., Cvetković, V. M., & Lukić, T. (2025). Assessing the Impact: Mortality from Infectious Disease in Trnava (1911 – 1941) through a Medical Geography Lens. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 33-50. https\://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.3* [
Premović, P., Arsenović, D., Pavić, D., Cvetković, V. M., & Lukić, T. (2025). Assessing the Impact: Mortality from Infectious Disease in Trnava (1911 – 1941) through a Medical Geography Lens. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(2), 33–50.
Circular Economy and Construction-Demolition Waste for Disaster Risk-Informed Practice
Comparative research connecting construction and demolition waste management, circular-economy principles and disaster-risk-informed environmental practice in Serbia and the European Union.
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Abstract
Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision-makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, and intensity, while on the other hand, they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapidly addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying them in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visualisation for modern disaster risk management are examined. Conclusion: Disaster risk management is a very complex process that incorporates a large number of elements and phases directly related to the characteristics of the disaster itself. That is why, with today’s degree of scientific development, its functioning is unimaginable without certain information technologies that help decision-makers collect, analyze, display, and understand specific spatial and temporal information. The lack of absolute prediction, intensity, and destructive power alarmingly emphasize the need for a rapid decision-making process. This decision-making process in risk management, aside from human errors, can be greatly enhanced by the use of fast information systems. The Geographic Information System improves the disaster risk management process in various ways. In the period prior to the occurrence of the disaster itself, this system can be used for planning activities, while during the disaster, it can be used as significant logistical support in the decision-making process. The advantages of using information systems in the disaster risk management process are multiple and include: efficient and timely review of the overall situation on the ground, decision-making based on highly professional operational information, improved coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation activities or elimination of consequences in the area affected by a disaster, improved communication in the field, better allocation of resources and assistance to affected citizens, etc. It is necessary to continue the development of information systems for disaster risk management, as this can greatly mitigate the catastrophic consequences caused by unprofessional and untimely decisions. *Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. Paper presented at the International Scientific and professional conference – 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.* [
Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. *International Scientific and Professional Conference – 40 Years of Higher Education in the Field of Security – Theory and Practice*, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, 1281–1295.
Digital Ecological Education Through ProSafeNet
A digital-education research project examining how ProSafeNet can support ecological education, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal.
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Abstract
Achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the European Green Deal (EGD) requires more efficient pathways that connect learning directly to real-world actions. This review introduces and explores a student-centered digital platform for ecological education that encourages knowledge sharing, collaboration, and practical implementation. Using a mixed-methods approach, we gather insights from existing literature and policies on SDGs and EGD to define core functional and governance requirements, which are then integrated into the ProSafeNet platform (the global hub for safety, security, risk, and emergency professionals and scientists). Its architecture brings together curated environmental issues across global, national, and causal layers; structured learning modules aligned with SDG/EGD guidelines; an embedded legal framework at various levels; and networking channels that guide students from identifying problems to developing solutions, culminating in standardized Project Solution Models. In the case study of ProSafeNet, these pathways leverage existing modules such as the Knowledge Base, Training Hub, Events/Forum, Projects, Research Hub, Community Resilience Hub, Policy Practice Lab, and Innovation Lab—allowing immediate testing without additional infrastructure. An evaluation framework is proposed, featuring key performance indicators such as learning gains, student engagement, team formation, prototypes or pilots, policy briefs, and progress toward SDGs/EGDs. The framework also highlights the importance of equity, accessibility, and GDPR-compliant governance. This approach aims to address the issue of “brain drain” by providing visible, credentialed pathways into green practices and funding opportunities, while fostering collaboration across institutions. Overall, this model offers a practical, scalable solution to accelerate student involvement in ecological problem-solving and support measurable progress toward SDG and EGD objectives. Conclusions\:By leveraging the capacity of formal education and a diverse range of high-quality higher education, a select group of students can be encouraged to develop as experts through informal education, specifically via a digital platform model for ecological education aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal. After informal education on processes, legislation, and areas covered by these initiatives, students’ innovative solutions to observed problems are reinforced. This approach empowers the group, who often face difficulties in applying their knowledge practically and finding employment. They should be viewed as an intellectual resource susceptible to the phenomenon of “brain drain” in search of opportunities abroad. Consequently, Serbia loses significant potential in its professional and innovative workforce. By providing opportunities and collaborating with this group, substantial progress can be made toward Serbia’s economic, environmental, social, and cultural development. The provisions, goals, SDGs, and EGD indicators create space not only for developing such an educational platform but also for ensuring the effective use of financial investments to address current environmental issues. Unfortunately, these problems continue to worsen daily and require urgent attention. The digital platform model proposed in this dissertation offers an opportunity to do so. With a systematic approach, success is inevitable, thereby ensuring Serbia’s progress in addressing pressing environmental challenges. This model supports the development and utilization of a digital platform that enhances students’ knowledge, facilitates networking, and informs decision-making in the environmental sector at the project, local, and strategic levels. All these initiatives—covering environmental improvement and protection, including the Sustainable Development Goals, the European Green Deal, and the Green Agenda—are interconnected. The initial step involves identifying the conditions necessary for developing a digital platform model for ecological education and networking among students, to create solutions to environmental protection and enhancement issues. It is essential to prioritize developing and implementing digital platforms for ecological education and networking to address environmental challenges and promote adequate progress towards the SDGs. ProSafeNet (Global Hub) provides an immediate link from concept to implementation by hosting learning resources (Knowledge Base, Training Hub), collaboration spaces (Forum, Events, Projects, Research Hub), and execution interfaces (Community Resilience Hub, Policy Practice Lab, Innovation Lab). It allows active deployment of the outlined model without needing additional infrastructure. A pilot program, utilizing pre/post knowledge checks, engagement metrics (team formations, mentorships, event participation), and innovation indicators (student project portfolios, prototypes, policy briefs), can offer early evidence of success. This pilot also enhances student visibility, credentials, and opportunities for EU and national green funding. With GDPR-compliant governance and cross-border reach, ProSafeNet can expand its model beyond Serbia, aiding in retaining young talent and advancing SDG and EGD goals. *Reference: Gajović , A., Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Digital Platform for Ecological Education of Students – Advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal: The Case of ProSafeNet (Global Hub). International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 263-278. https\://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.14* [
Gajović , A., Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Digital Platform for Ecological Education of Students – Advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal: The Case of ProSafeNet (Global Hub). *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(2), 263–278.
Industrial Disasters and Hazards: A Holistic Resilience Framework
A holistic research review of industrial-disaster causes, consequences and resilience requirements relevant to technological-risk management.
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Abstract
Starting from accelerated industrial development, industrial disasters (chemical spills, explosions, nuclear accidents, etc.), which fall under man-made (technological) disasters, increasingly threaten human lives, the environment, and property. Their complexity and far-reaching consequences, both at the local and global levels, require effective management of industrial risks and the disasters themselves (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery). For these reasons, the review paper aims to provide a holistic description of the diverse causes, dynamics, and multidimensional consequences of disasters. Additionally, it highlights and explains the key factors that directly or indirectly contribute to their occurrence. Furthermore, it could be said that the paper analyzes existing strategies for managing risks from industrial disasters and systematizes recommendations for improving preventive and reactive measures in high-risk industries. On the other side, the paper utilizes a comprehensive literature review, which involves the systematic identification, review, analysis, and critical evaluation of existing scientific papers, studies, reports, and regulatory documents on industrial disasters. Besides that, it also includes a detailed analysis of well-known industrial disaster cases such as Seveso (Italy, 1976), Bhopal (India, 1984), Chernobyl (Ukraine, then USSR, 1986), and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). The paper emphasizes that industrial disasters are often the result of the combined influence and interaction of technical failures, human errors, and inadequately developed safety procedures. Moreover, it can be highlighted that the design and implementation of preventive measures, such as regular maintenance of technical systems and systematic training and education of employees, are crucial for reducing the likelihood of such catastrophic events. The implications of this review paper are multifaceted and point to the following: the need to reassess current safety practices in industries; reconsider the potential for introducing innovations in preventive technical-technological solutions; examine the thorough implementation of innovative early warning systems, safety procedures, and modern equipment in facilities; improve cooperation between engineers, safety managers, and regulatory workers; reassess the need for additional updates and tightening of regulations regarding the storage, transport, and use of hazardous materials in industry; and improve the management of risks from industrial disasters. Conslusion: A pace of technological advance means the opportunity for industrial disasters is never far away, and safety challenges continue to exist in various industries. It can be said that this multifaceted context of human errors, organizational weaknesses, and sometimes poor system performance underscores the importance of taking a holistic approach as part of comprehensive disaster risk management efforts. This fragility analysis reveals that addressing these risks cannot be limited to responses and defence mechanisms which are end-of-the-pipe but must include the design of systemic pre-ventive strategies from an upstream perspective. The other significant aspect of this study suggests that safety measurements need an upgrade along with strict regulations to prevent low-frequency, high-severity events (i.e. disasters such as Chernobyl or Bhopal) and high-frequency, lower-impact events (i.e. personal injuries). Installing so-phisticated early warning systems and scheduling equipment maintenance to avoid incidents are some of the measures that must be followed by industrial plants. Fur-thermore, Safety Culture is encouraged within organizations by consistent training and education to reduce human factors; an important cause of disaster. The implications of this study stress the importance of interdisciplinary industri-al disaster prevention involving engineers, safety training managers, and inspection authorities. International cooperation constitutes one of the key softer levers, in which best practices and lenses are shared to develop unified frameworks that can be taken up or adapted globally. Countries also need to ensure that there are stricter rules in place regarding the proper use of dangerous substances, and industries should be made accountable for their work by adhering further to safety regulations as well. The rapid technological development, industrial disasters become an important challenge to safety in different sectors. The lack of a consistent definition underlines the need for an all-encompassing model that enables sectors and decision-makers to prevent and mit-igate these events. When it comes to creating a safety strategy, increased awareness of industrial hazards can go far. Also, the classification of industrial risks into type, cause, and materials streamlines risk management for an industry. Each sector can only col-lapse in a specific way, and by understanding the risks that are unique to each industry industries can take any number of precautions which when implemented prevent sys-temic collapses from occurring again. This is because industrial disasters have complex effects, ranging from immediate physical destruction to long-term economic and ecological disasters with enormous social and health consequences. To mitigate the far-reaching impacts of this disrup-tion, industries must work together with governments and other stakeholders on com-plete recovery plans that address their immediate needs at once while planning to re-store regions in a resilient manner for years. Industrial disasters, typically but not solely chemical and nuclear accidents, have also had health consequences that demand urgent medical attention. This entails timely detection of toxic agents and long-term health surveillance of populations exposed. In minimizing health impacts, collabora-tion between industrial facilities that may be sources of contamination and other stakeholders, like emergency services and public health bodies is crucial. The consequences of industrial disasters go beyond the short run and can have long-lasting economic impacts. Supplies and facilities do not exist that we can use to return habitat conditions, including these fish populations. The financial losses initially involve the clean-up and restoration attempts but extend on into property values, production abilities of all sorts, as well as economy-wide consequences. It is economi-cally risky for the industries if they do not invest in mitigation methods and plans to make sure recovery will leave as little damage as possible on their financials, while governments should help with relief efforts within impacted communities. Certainly, industrial disasters can generate horrendous damage to surrounding ecosystems and biodiversity. It underscores the crucial role that environmental regula-tions play in internalizing these externalities, as well as ensuring the industries put in-to place strict containment measures. Developing the capacity to address long-term environmental recovery is central to any disaster management response. Risk man-agement for industrial disasters is highly challenging due to its unpredictable nature. Because the events are complex, so must the safety solutions — they need to accom-modate future dynamic industrial process situations. Industries are capable of meeting the unknown nature of these disasters by integrating cutting-edge technologies and enhancing organizational oversight. A lot of things are needed to occur in an industrial disaster, also there is a human role to take its part and organize as well other than the technical faults. These factors must be addressed together as part of any efforts to prevent tragedies like this in the future. Smarter, safer technologies along with heightened workforce training are nec-essary to protect every part of industrial operations. This includes the continuous de-velopment of competencies: a) consciously acquired skills and b) specifically deployed employees, considering their personality traits and attitudes towards safety and risk. Many industrial disasters are the result of failures in design and engineering (for example, if a dam is built too weakly or from substandard materials), which can make what would otherwise be normal operation dangerous due to vulnerabilities. Working to improve procedures around design, and installing state-of-the-art safety equipment should also play a role in addressing these risks. Preventing minor residual designs from turning into full-scale disasters. The fact that human error is a major cause of industrial disasters still holds in en-vironments with advanced automation. Improving human reliability with training is needed to reduce technical failures as the latter commence from poor decision-making processes. Eliminating preventable disasters, the emphasis on human factors in indus-try. A safety culture, incompetence in maintenance, etc. — are organizational failures that can cause industrial disasters. Preventing such incidents will require better cor-porate practices, from enforcing safety protocols to regular maintenance. Good organ-ization will help prevent disasters from striking too often. In the same way, industrial risk management needs to incorporate external factors such as natural disasters and sabotage. Industries need to have some concrete solutions that can help them in dealing with these external threats, which cause a huge loss of life and property. These strategies should also be able to focus on what the internal risk factors are (usually have greater controllability), as well they must examine how to take into account the risks occurring externally while drawing up disaster recovery management. This encompasses the range of hazards that need to be protected in in-dustrial facilities. Studying industrial disasters of the past provides critical lessons for doing better in managing future calamities. Industries can use the knowledge of what led to and followed these cases. The general idea is that from the study industries should learn lessons so as not to fall into a similar trap. Key takeaway: Lessons learned from previ-ous incidents, improved regulatory frameworks, and safety protocols are to ensure that the risk of future industrial disasters is reduced. To prevent industrial disasters, it is amenable to multi-disciplinary and proactive risk management efforts. While the elimination of technology from its operations is an impossibility, the industry can re-duce exposure to these hazards by implementing state-of-the-art engineering solutions, building stronger organizations, and tightening regulatory systems in managing risks associated with technological threats. Expanded prevention readiness capacity is es-sential to learn continually about previous disasters and international cooperation in industrial systems safer, and more resilient. *Reference – *Cvetković, V. M.; Renner, R.; Jakovljević, V. Industrial Disasters and Hazards: From Causes to Consequences—A Holistic View. Preprints 2024, 2024102313. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.2313.v1 [
Cvetković, V., Renner, R., & Jakovljević, V. (2024). Industrial disasters and hazards: From causes to consequences—A holistic view. Preprints.
Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience
Research into the vulnerability and resilience of persons with disabilities during disasters, with emphasis on inclusive risk-reduction strategies.
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Abstract
Persons with disabilities (PWDs) are among the most at-risk groups during disaster situations due to various physical, sensory, cognitive, and systemic challenges that hinder their ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from crises. Although international legal frameworks emphasise their inclusion, people with disabilities (PWDs) often struggle to access essential resources, emergency assistance, and social protections during such events. This study examines both the vulnerabilities and strengths of people with disabilities (PWDs) in disaster risk management, highlighting the critical need for inclusive policies, enhanced accessibility measures, and stronger community-based support systems. It reviews key international, European, and national legal instruments designed to protect the rights of people with disabilities (PWDs) in disaster contexts while identifying gaps in their implementation. Furthermore, the research examines the active role people with disabilities (PWDs) can play in disaster prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, advocating for their meaningful participation in decision-making processes. By embedding inclusive disaster risk reduction strategies, societies can enhance resilience, ensure equitable access to emergency services, and foster long-term social inclusion for people with disabilities (PWDs). The findings emphasise the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration, adaptive infrastructure, and targeted policy initiatives to bridge the gap between legal mandates and practical realities in disaster management. Conclusion: Disaster management is a highly complex process that must consider all the specific needs of individuals with disabilities. Consequently, their inclusion in such processes is not merely a political and administrative issue but a fundamental matter of respecting and protecting all human rights. This study highlights the significant challenges faced by individuals with disabilities during disasters, including physical barriers, communication difficulties, limited access to emergency response services, and adverse socio-economic conditions. Simultaneously, it underscores the importance of recognising their abilities, resilience, and active participation in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. The successful implementation of inclusive disaster risk management necessitates a coordinated approach across multiple levels. In this context, relevant government authorities must adopt, amend, and enforce various legal and regulatory frameworks and allocate financial resources to ensure accessibility in planning for and responding to diverse natural and man-made hazards and disasters. Emergency response personnel, including police and fire rescue units, should undergo specialised training and implement multi-modal warning systems to guarantee timely and effective communication with individuals with disabilities. Encouraging active participation at the local level through involvement in planning committees, disaster simulation exercises, and the distribution of accessible emergency guides is crucial for empowering individuals and enhancing safety. Finally, disaster risk reduction necessitates a shift in mindset—from perceiving persons with disabilities as passive recipients of aid to recognising them as key players in resilience-building. By implementing inclusive policies, improving infrastructure accessibility, and strengthening collaboration between governments, organisations, and communities, we can bridge the gap between theory and real-world practice. These steps will not only protect the rights and well-being of persons with disabilities during disasters but will also foster greater resilience for society as a whole. *Reference: Jevtić, M., Cvetković, V. M., Gačić, J., & Raonić, Z. (2025). Factors of Vulnerability and Resilience of Persons with Disabilities During Disasters: Challenges and Strategies for Inclusive Risk Reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 91–114.* [
Jevtić, M., Cvetković, V. M., Gačić, J., & Raonić, Z. (2025). Factors of Vulnerability and Resilience of Persons with Disabilities During Disasters: Challenges and Strategies for Inclusive Risk Reduction. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *7*(1), 91–114.
Ransomware as a Disaster-Risk and Economic-Stability Challenge
A cybersecurity research stream interpreting ransomware through the lens of disaster risk and examining implications for economic stability and institutional resilience.
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Abstract
Ransomware has emerged as a modern digital crisis, mirroring the widespread disruptions typically associated with natural or artificial disasters. As global economies grow increasingly interconnected through digital systems, the fallout from ransomware attacks stretches far beyond mere technical breaches. These incidents result in severe financial damage, disrupt operations, erode reputations, and contribute to broader socioeconomic instability. This study adopts a disaster risk perspective to examine the broader economic and social impact of ransomware, particularly its effects on critical infrastructure and public trust in institutions. Through a multi-case analysis of sixteen significant ransomware attacks between 2015 and 2025, the research highlights a recurring pattern: direct and indirect costs often compound, with impacts varying from ransom demands and halted services to reputational loss and sector-wide vulnerabilities. The rise of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) has also made these attacks more accessible and complex, deepening the threat landscape. The findings underscore the need to integrate cybersecurity into comprehensive disaster risk management strategies. Policymakers, institutions, and businesses must adopt a forward-looking approach—emphasising continuous risk evaluation, resilient digital infrastructure, and collaboration across sectors. To protect economies from escalating cyber threats, adaptive regulations and anticipatory defences are no longer optional—they’re essential. Conclusion: This paper has shown that ransomware should no longer be viewed solely as a cybersecurity challenge, but as a complex and evolving disaster risk with far-reaching consequences for economic stability, institutional resilience, and public trust. Drawing on sixteen high-impact case studies, the research presents a typology of financial losses and systemic disruptions, highlighting the disproportionate impact on critical infrastructure and the compounding nature of indirect costs. By framing ransomware as a form of digital disaster, the study contributes to a more integrated approach to cyber risk within the broader context of disaster risk governance and resilience planning. The findings point to several practical implications, calling for coordinated but context-specific action from key stakeholders: a) governments should incorporate ransomware preparedness into national risk strategies, encourage transparent incident reporting, and provide fiscal incentives for cybersecurity investments; b) private-sector entities need to implement zero-trust architectures, develop insurance solutions tailored to cyber threats, and enhance organisational resilience that extends beyond technical safeguards; c) at the international level, institutions must advance cross-border collaboration—particularly in regulating virtual assets, supporting joint law enforcement efforts, and setting global standards for cyber disaster response. The financial impact of cybercrime has reached staggering proportions, with projections indicating an alarming upward trend. An unfortunate aspect of today’s online society affects businesses of all sizes. The global scale of financial flows associated with ransomware attacks has grown dramatically in recent years. New techniques have increased the profitability of attacks and the likelihood of success. These include targeting large, high-value entities and ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS), where ransomware criminals sell customised software kits to affiliates. The consequences of a ransomware attack can be dire, posing significant national security threats that include damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and services. A ransomware attack is a form of extortion, and FATF standards require it to be criminalised as a predicate offence for money laundering (The Financial Action Task Force, 2023). Ransomware criminals exploit the international nature of virtual assets to facilitate large, near-instantaneous cross-border transactions, sometimes without the involvement of traditional financial institutions that have programs in place to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. Ransomware attacks are on the rise globally, and any business or organisation can be a target of these attacks, which require additional attention and preparation in terms of business cybersecurity and the complete protection of the digital economy. As Krivokapić et al. (2023) point out, it is crucial that all relevant institutions, including financial institutions, are informed about the ransomware attack and the ransom payment. This is important because it provides sufficient evidence for possible legal proceedings or cancellation of ransom payments. Additionally, business entities should invest in insurance policies that include cybersecurity coverage, as standard commercial policies often do not provide sufficient protection against cyberattacks. These insurance policies help cover the costs arising from attacks, such as ransomware (Cobos et al., 2024). Since states cannot always effectively protect themselves from cyber attacks, it is recommended that they encourage investment in cybersecurity. This can be supported by introducing tax breaks and double deductions for costs related to cybersecurity. The first recommendation is to continue investing in workforce education and training, enabling individuals to identify threats and respond effectively (World Economic Forum, 2025). Then, it is necessary to adopt a zero-trust approach, which minimizes the risk of attacks by treating all requests as potentially malicious. It is also crucial to enhance incident response plans to respond promptly to cyberattacks and mitigate their impact. Advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and automation, should be used to improve threat detection and predictive analytics, but with caution against attacks launched by artificial intelligence (Thakur, 2024). Collaboration and information sharing among members of the cybersecurity community are also key to strengthening defences. Data protection and privacy should be a top priority, alongside regulatory compliance and transparent communication. Finally, it is essential to regularly assess and update security to identify new vulnerabilities and adapt defences to emerging threats, as cybersecurity is an ongoing process that requires a proactive approach, collaboration, and the integration of modern technologies to successfully confront evolving threats. This study has limitations. The analysis relies on publicly available data, which may exclude undisclosed or underreported incidents. Future research should focus on analysing longitudinal data, identifying sector-specific vulnerabilities, and modelling recovery trajectories following major ransomware events. In closing, confronting the ransomware threat demands more than just technological fixes. It requires a fundamental shift in how digital risk is conceptualised, governed, and financed. Without integrated, adaptive, and inclusive strategies, ransomware may become one of this century’s defining disaster threats. *Reference: Vidović, N., Cvetković, V. M., Beriša, H., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Understanding Ransomware Through the Lens of Disaster Risk: Implications for Cybersecurity and Economic Stability. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 247–264.* [
Vidović, N., Cvetković, V. M., Beriša, H., & Milašinović, S. (2025). Understanding Ransomware Through the Lens of Disaster Risk: Implications for Cybersecurity and Economic Stability. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 247–264.
Cross-National Disaster Risk Management: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Serbia
Comparative research examining strengths and weaknesses of disaster-risk-management systems in Bulgaria, Romania and Albania, with reflections on Serbia.
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Abstract
This study examines disaster risk management systems in Bulgaria, Romania, and Albania, highlighting their distinct strengths and weaknesses while drawing comparisons to Serbia’s framework. The research underscores the growing urgency of disaster risk management in addressing challenges posed by natural and man-made (technological) hazards, which are further aggravated by climate change, globalisation, and socio-economic shifts. The study identifies best practices alongside systemic weaknesses by assessing the normative, institutional, and strategic frameworks of these countries. Key strengths include comprehensive legal systems, robust international partnerships, and sophisticated early warning mechanisms. However, these strengths are counterbalanced by limited local capacity, fragmented institutional coordination, and inadequate public awareness. The analysis highlights the potential for regional cooperation through a comparative lens, emphasising the importance of engaging local communities, enhancing early warning technologies, and aligning with global disaster management standards. The findings offer valuable insights into ongoing discussions about constructing resilient societies, providing practical recommendations to enhance disaster risk management systems across Southeastern Europe. Conclusion: The analysis of disaster risk management systems in Bulgaria, Romania, and Albania reveals varying levels of development and effectiveness in each country. Each country faces specific challenges but also holds opportunities for improvement, taking into account their unique capacities and international commitments. In Bulgaria, the disaster risk management system is largely integrated within national institutions, emphasizing alignment with European directives and standards. Bulgaria has successfully developed an early warning system for natural disasters such as floods, fires, and earthquakes, along with efficient emergency response mechanisms. Moreover, there are well-defined coordination mechanisms among various levels of government, with local communities actively involved in planning and preparation for emergencies. The strengths of this system include a relatively strong infrastructure, EU membership, and access to European funding for disaster prevention and capacity-building initiatives. Romania follows a similar approach, but its disaster risk management system places a higher focus on earthquake-related risks due to the region’s high seismic activity. The Romanian system also aligns with European standards and has established protocols for cross-border coordination with neighbouring countries. A significant emphasis is placed on preventive measures and public education, as well as continuous improvement of infrastructure, especially in urban areas most at risk. Like Bulgaria, Romania benefits from EU membership and participates in joint disaster mitigation projects, greatly enhancing its capacity to handle various types of disasters. On the other hand, Albania has more limited capacities compared to Bulgaria and Romania, mainly due to lower economic development and insufficient institutional support. Although progress has been made in developing its disaster risk management system, including the formation of national plans for disaster prevention and response, Albania still faces significant challenges. Primarily, there is a need for stronger early warning infrastructure and improved coordination between national and local authorities. Additionally, Albania relies on regional cooperation and international support for disaster risk management, which is crucial for enhancing its capacities. Overall, Bulgaria and Romania have more developed systems due to EU support and long-term capacity-building strategies. Albania, while facing greater challenges, is making efforts to strengthen its system but needs to continue investing in human resources, technological capacity, and regional collaboration. To enhance disaster risk management across all three countries, further strengthening of preventive measures, public education, and improved disaster response infrastructure is recommended. Regional collaboration, especially in the context of climate change and the increasing frequency of natural disasters, will be crucial for building resilience to these events. *Reference: 26. Beli, A., Renner, R., Cvetković, V. M., Ivanov, A., & Gačić, J. (2025). A Cross-National Study of Disaster Risk Management: Strengths and Weaknesses in Bulgaria, Romania, and Albania with Reflections on Serbia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 431–460.* [
Beli, A., Renner, R., Cvetković, V. M., Ivanov, A., & Gačić, J. (2025). A Cross-National Study of Disaster Risk Management: Strengths and Weaknesses in Bulgaria, Romania, and Albania with Reflections on Serbia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(1), 431–460.
Religion and Disaster Risk Reduction in Serbia
A Serbian case study examining the influence of religion on disaster risk reduction, community attitudes and resilience-related behaviour.
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Abstract
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied. *Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion influence on disaster risk reduction: A case study of Serbia. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, 5(1), 66–81.
Disaster Risk Communication: Attitudes of Serbian Citizens
An empirical research stream examining how citizens in Serbia perceive and evaluate disaster-risk communication.
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Abstract
The objective of this research was to examine the citizens’ attitudes to various factors influencing the implementation of effective disaster risk communication in the Republic of Serbia. In addition, the research aims to scientifically describe the predictors of successful disaster risk communication. Using an online survey questionnaire, based on the snowball principle, 243 respondents were surveyed during July 2021. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis used to assess the explanatory power of six selected variables (gender, age, education, marital status, employment, and income level) on the perception of disaster risk communication show that the most important predictors of risk awareness are income level and gender. The obtained results have multiple scientific and practical importance for the improvement of integrated disaster risk communication through the process of improved understanding of the demographic and socio-economic perspective of communication. Predmet istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje stavova građana o različitim činiocima uticaja na sprovođenje efikasne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, cilј istraživanja predstavlјa naučna deskripcija prediktora uspešne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa. Korišćenjem onlajn anketnog upitnika, a po principu snežne grudve, sprovedeno je anketiranje 243 ispitanika tokom jula 2021. godine. Rezultati višestruke linearne regresione analize korišćene da se proceni eksplikativna moć šest izabranih varijabli (pol, godine, obrazovanje, bračni status, zaposlenost i visina prihoda) na percepciju komunikacije rizika od katastrofa pokazuju da je najznačajniji prediktor informisanosti o rizicima nivo prihoda i pol ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati su od višestrukog naučnog i praktičnog značaja za unapređenje integrisane komunikacije rizika od katastrofa kroz proces pobolјšanog razumevanja demografske i socio-ekonomske perspektive komunikacije. Conclusions: Traditional sources of information such as radio, television, and print have long been used for the purpose of warning the public about pending dangers and proposing protection measures to minimize consequences. However, these sources had several deficiencies: inability to directly transmit information from affected regions, interruption of communication between individuals and relevant services due to physical damage to critical infrastructure, inconsistency in reporting, sensationalization of stories by the media, etc. The use of new technologies in reporting and warning has become crucial in the field of disaster risk management. To increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the communication process, it is necessary to establish a service or unit responsible for monitoring the entire communication process (receipt, analysis, sending), from the first announcements to the end of the disaster. This unit or service would aim to provide timely, true, and objective information about events, as well as coordinate communication among members of the affected community and relevant services. It would be responsible for early warning, alerting and informing, issuing evacuation orders, and proposing protection measures via various information channels. During disasters, it would receive direct information from the scene and manage protection and rescue units for a faster and more efficient response. Moreover, this service would also play a role in stopping the distribution of false information and undermining of authorities. The conducted research raises new research questions that need to be examined and studied in detail, including various factors affecting the process of disaster risk communication and the implementation of different strategies and innovative solutions in this field. Given the increasing requests for attention to the social context, perception, attitudes, and beliefs of the population that affect their interpretation, receipt, and response to warning messages, the implications of this research are extremely important for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Radovanović, M., Milašinović, S. (2021). Disaster risk communication: Attitudes of Serbian citizens. Sociological review, 55 (4), 1610-1647.* [
Cvetković, V., Radovanović, M., Milašinović, S. (2021). Disaster Risk Communication: Attitudes of Serbian Citizens. *Sociological Review*, 55 (4), 1610-1647.
The Role of Social Media in Informing the Public About Disaster Risks
Research examining the role of social-media platforms in public information, awareness and communication about disaster risks.
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Abstract
Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks. Conclusion: Media in modern society is characterized by a high level of connectivity and the progressive development of information and communication technologies. Social media inform the public about the most important events and convey important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and gather data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. At the same time, they are a source of information for decision-makers, based on which they can monitor the course of disasters, their consequences, public opinion, and the needs of citizens. However, to use social networks in the best possible way, it is necessary to have knowledge, advanced technologies, and resources. However, information about disasters that is sensationalist can also have negative effects. Too often, news broadcasts and how they are conveyed can increase fear among citizens and cause anxiety, stress, and depression. Social media, characterized by interactivity and the transmission of content created by the users of social networks themselves, are a rich source of inaccurate information. This information does not have to be objective or accurate. However, it is generally available to the public faster than verified and reliable information transmitted through other communication channels. The spread of misinformation and other people’s opinions increases uncertainty and fear among citizens. Social networks are often used as a source of information today. Citizens often do not check the sources of information and tend to form opinions based on short information, headlines, images, and video content. This can lead to overexposure to unverified and subjective news, citizen distrust, and often resistance to government disaster mitigation measures. Also, misinformation and half-information often present on the Internet can directly threaten human health and create distrust of citizens in governments and experts. Therefore, timely and accurate information, as well as appropriate tools that enable this, is a basic prerequisite for successful disaster management. The conducted research generates new research questions in which we should further investigate and study various demographic factors that influence the process of informing about the risks of disasters through social media and that influence the design and implementation of appropriate strategies and innovative solutions in this area. Given that the study and understanding of the social context, that is, the perception, beliefs, and attitudes of citizens, which shape how they interpret and respond to information, is of key importance for decision-makers, the research implications have practical significance. The limitations of the conducted research are, on the other hand, the coverage of a smaller territorial area and population of the Republic of Serbia. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M., Nikolic, A., & Ivanov, A. (2023). The role of social media in the process of informing the public about disaster risks. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(2), 104-119. https\://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2392121c* [
Cvetković, V., & Nikolić, A. (2023). The role of social media in the process of informing the public about disaster risks. Preprints.
Trust, Police Presence and School Safety Policy
A school-safety research stream examining trust, police presence and their implications for sustainable school-safety policy.
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Abstract
The study aims to determine the trust and presence of police officers in schools in Serbia, as well as the perception of the principals and secretaries, teachers and staff, parents and students on how successful the certain police units dedicated to schools were in fulfilling their tasks. The ex–post analysis was conducted through PEST/SWAT analysis, mapping of the key actors and using batteries of online questionnaires. Besides interviews with the MOI representatives, there were conducted: Survey with personal interviewing, Computer–aided surveying and Desk analysis and content analysis. The survey was conducted in the period from September 2021 to June 2022. The research methods were implemented in 1140 schools in Serbia and 8,617 people were included in surveys: police officers (308); principals and secretaries (1085); the team for protection against discrimination (982); teachers and staff (2988); parents (938) and students (2316). The relationships between the covariates and perception were investigated using the t–test, one–way ANOVA, multivariate linear regression, and binary regression. The results showed that a project of school police officers was not fully recognized as one of the strategically important instruments for safe schools, trust is low but presence is high. Besides that, the results suggest that the entire public believe that a police is needed in schools and that it has a very positive effect on school safety. Regarding school safety policy, it is necessary to undertake three types of measures for sustainable development of trust and presence of police in school: regulatory, informative-educational and institutional-organizational. Conclusion: Although the data for our research were collected before the unfortunate events in Belgrade, the results suggest that the entire public (students, parents, teachers, principals, and school police officers) believes that a school police officer is needed in schools and that he has a very positive effect on school safety. After the mass shooting at the school in Belgrade, we believe that the public will be even more convinced that it is necessary. However, the simple presence of the school police officer on the premises is not enough; his work must be improved. That is why it is necessary to undertake three types of measures: regulatory, informative-educational, and institutional-organizational. Within the first group of measures, it is necessary to establish a school police officer institute within formal frameworks, that is, to systematize the job position – the school police officer, because currently, the said job is performed by different police officers who are not sufficiently trained in the field. It is necessary to draw up instructions for this job, which will regulate the actions of a school police officer in detail. Institutional-organizational measures include the definition of clear criteria that a police officer can perform the duties of a school police officer because they do not exist now. In addition, the question arises whether every school needs a school police officer. That is why it is necessary to define clear, minimum criteria for the introduction of a school police officer in a certain school (number of students, distance from the police station, coverage by patrol and police activities, number of committed offenses and criminal acts in and around the school, number of disciplinary measures imposed by the school, etc.), by which his introduction to the school according to someone’s “free judgment” would be avoided. In order to improve the work of the school police officers and exchange experience, it is necessary to connect all school police officers in the School Police Officer Network through internal police networks or social networks to exchange experiences on security-related issues in schools. One of the most important rules would be “one school police officer – one school”, which was not applied at the time of the school massacre in Belgrade. In many schools in Serbia, one school police officer works in two or more schools, often during a short period. The school police officer is not able to fulfill his tasks completely due to his partial presence in the school, which was also the case in the case of the massacre in the elementary school in Belgrade because she was not present at the time of the attack. Informational and educational measures include the establishment of special training for school police officers and the creation of a training program (Handbook) for the “school police officer”. In accordance with the newly created situation in Serbia, one part of the training would have to refer to the actions of school police officers in AMOK situations, that is, mass shootings in schools. In addition to independent training for school police officers, it is necessary to conduct joint training with school representatives. All the above measures would help each school where security is threatened to get its school police officer, who will contribute to increasing the safety of students in schools, feeling of safety of students and employees, and particularly help to avoid tragedies like the one that happened in the elementary school in Belgrade. *Reference – Jankovic, B. ., Cvetkovic, V. M. ., Ivanovic, Z. ., Ivanov, A., Jovanovic, S. ., & Otasevic, B. . (2023). Sustainable development of trust and presence of police in schools: implications for school safety policy. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(3), 22-52. https\://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2393022j * [
Jankovic, B., Cvetkovic, V. M., Ivanovic, Z., Ivanov, A., Jovanovic, S., & Otasevic, B. (2023). Sustainable development of trust and police presence in schools: implications for school safety policy. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(3), 22-52.
Public Perception of Climate Change and Its Impact on Natural Disasters
Research examining how citizens perceive climate change and its relationship with the occurrence and consequences of natural disasters.
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Abstract
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied. *Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion influence on disaster risk reduction: A case study of Serbia. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, 5(1), 66–81.
Security Risks of Climate Change: Belgrade Case Study
A Belgrade case study analysing climate change as a security risk and examining public perceptions relevant to urban resilience.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Private-Security Preparedness for Fire Disasters
Research examining the readiness of private-security personnel and organizations to respond to disasters caused by fires.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Earthquake Knowledge and Perception Among Secondary-School Students in Belgrade
An empirical study of knowledge and perceptions of earthquakes among secondary-school students in Belgrade.
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Abstract
The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process. Conclusion: When considering the results of the previously conducted analyses, it is concluded that the sources of information about natural disasters (family, school, television, Internet, radio, video games, and lectures) influence the perceptions of secondary school students with respect to their knowledge about earthquakes such that those respondents who acquired a statistically significantly higher percentage of information believe they know what an earthquake is. One exception is video games, as they influence the perception of knowledge in a way that respondents who have not played feel they know what an earthquake is, whereas those who have played video games believe that they do not know what an earthquake is. Also, the exception is the radio as a source of information, which is used by secondary school students to a lesser extent and which does not affect the attitude of the respondents. Accordingly, we conclude that the actual knowledge of secondary school students about earthquakes is affected by lectures, school, television, and the Internet, and it is not affected by radio, video games, or stories from family members. A statistically higher percentage of those with no personal experience with the consequences of natural disasters do not know what an earthquake is. Although the personal experiences of those respondents who have witnessed the consequences of earthquakes affect their knowledge of earthquakes, personal experiences of the effects of landslides tend to mislead the subjects such that, for the most part, their knowledge of earthquakes is not affected and they still do not know what constitutes an earthquake. This result is plausible for two reasons: first, people learn best from personal experience, and second, as the effects of earthquakes and landslides are manifested through the movement and shifting of soil, it is expected that respondents describe the consequences of an earthquake. However, the experiences of immediate family members, for the most part, do not affect the knowledge of the respondents as to what constitutes an earthquake (with the exception of the father). This is likely because, in Serbia (and therefore in Belgrade), families are predominantly patriarchal. Thus, the father is the head of the family and the person responsible for the safety of the family, and as such, it is logical that the father transfers his personal experiences to his children with special interest due to his concern that they remain safe in the event of a natural disaster. Secondary school students who do not feel safe from natural disasters while at school, to a greater extent, exhibit a lack of understanding and knowledge with respect to what constitutes an earthquake. Moreover, there is a dependence between the knowledge the respondents have about earthquakes and their desire to learn more about natural disasters. In other words, a statistically higher percentage of those students who know what an earthquake is indicate a desire to enhance their knowledge. It is further noted that there is a dependent relationship between the variables “acquisition of knowledge about natural disasters through educational films and series” and “knowledge about earthquakes.” Therefore, the level of knowledge of secondary school students with respect to the earthquake as a natural disaster is influenced by television, the Internet, and school lectures. Thus, it is suggested that encouraging secondary school students in Belgrade to participate in the clean-up and rebuilding of an area after an earthquake would increase their knowledge of the consequences of such disasters. Moreover, increasing the knowledge of secondary school students would, in turn, affect their sense of security. The results suggest that secondary school students who know what an earthquake is and are aware of the possible dangers of natural disasters have an increased desire to further their learning. Thus, secondary school students should be trained primarily through educational films and series. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragićević, S., Petrović, M., Mijaković, S., Jakovljević, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about earthquakes as natural disasters. Polish journal of environmental studies, 24(4), 1553-1561. doi:10.15244/pjoes/39702* [
Cvetković, V. M., Ronan, K., Shaw, R., Filipović, M., Mano, R., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2019). Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia: A study of selected municipalities. *Acta Geographica, 59*(2), 28–42.
Demographic and Environmental Determinants of Students’ Natural-Disaster Knowledge
Research investigating how demographic and environmental factors relate to secondary-school students’ knowledge of natural disasters.
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This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Geophysical Disasters
A geospatial and temporal analysis of geophysical disasters designed to improve understanding of hazard distribution and disaster patterns.
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Abstract
Floods as hydrological emergencies, every day increasingly threaten the safety of people and their property. As such, they intensely attract the attention of researchers in the field of geospatial, technical, natural, information and other sciences, but also experts in the field of emergency who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred method of scientific research and drawing conclusions about the phenomenology of flood is a statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of flood in period from 1900 until 2013 at the global level. Thereby, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step, it was taken raw (unprocessed) data in the format of “An Excel” file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which was then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. The temporal analysis it is examines the distribution of the total number and impacts of floods on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 countries by the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the geospatial distribution it is analyzed the total number and consequences of floods by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences. Therefore, for more effective and efficient protection and emergency response caused by the deleterious effect of flooding, it is needed to comprehensively explore specified natural phenomena, so that the subject of the paper will be form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of manifestation of flooding. In addition, it is important to mention that geospatial and temporal analysis of floods gives meaning, content and value to a comprehensive effort to understand natural hazards and their effects better, to protect people from them timely, and in this case, adjust to the flood risk. Conclusion: After the analysis of natural disasters, the following conclusions were made: In the period from 1900 to 2013, there were 25,552 natural disasters. During these disasters, 65,009,766 people were killed, 15,221,227 were injured, 13,566,647,548 were affected, and 337,112,287 were left homeless. The total damage amounted to 5,066,645,713 US dollars. During the reporting period, floods were the most frequent, while landslides and rockfalls were the rarest. The largest number of people was killed due to droughts, injured by extreme temperatures, and affected by floods. The largest number of people was left homeless due to floods. The highest total damage was caused by storms. The smallest number of people was killed as a result of insect infestations, injured due to forest fires, and affected by landslides and rockfalls. The fewest people lost their homes due to epidemics, insect infestations, and landslides and rockfalls. Material damage was also least caused by epidemics, insect infestations, and landslides and rockfalls. The largest number of natural disasters occurred in Asia, and the smallest in Oceania. Accordingly, the distribution of consequences by continents is similar. Looking at the time continuum, the largest number of natural disasters occurred from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest number from 1910 to 1920. Of these, the largest number of fatalities was from 1900 to 1910, and the smallest from 1990 to 2000. The largest number of injuries occurred from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest from 1900 to 1910. The largest number of people affected by natural disasters was from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest from 1900 to 1910. In the period from 2000 to 2013, the largest number of people was left homeless, while this number was smallest from 1940 to 1950. Statistical results clearly indicate the severity of the increase in the number and effects of natural disasters. These results can be used as a serious argument to stimulate the capacities of countries to deal with natural disasters. *Reference – Cvetković, V. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance (3-4 March 2014), Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 371-389.* [
Cvetković, V., & Dragićević, S. (2014). Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Natural Disasters. *Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijić, SASA, 64*(3), 293–309.
Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Emerging Trends of Cardiovascular Diseases in Vojvodina
A geospatial public-health research stream examining cardiovascular-disease patterns and emerging trends among patients treated at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina.
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Cardiovascular diseases represent one of the most dominant categories of non-communicable diseases, with a high prevalence both in Serbia and globally. Understanding their spatial distribution provides valuable insights for public health planning and disease prevention. This study applies geospatial analysis to examine the patterns of CVD among patients treated at the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina in Serbia, over the period 1995–2023. Beyond identifying spatial clusters, the analysis reveals long-term intensification of CVD burden in the South Bačka urban-suburban zone, indicating a sustained spatial polarization of cardiovascular morbidity over nearly three decades. Mann-Kendall trends per settlement were calculated. The spatial dimension of the research was addressed using the Emerging Hot Spot Analysis to detect statistically significant clusters of high and low values. To further refine the spatial representation of CVD clusters, the Kriging interpolation method was applied. The findings underscore the significance of geospatial methods in pinpointing high-risk areas in cardiovascular diseases, providing an evidence-based foundation for targeted healthcare interventions and resource allocation. Moreover, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating spatial geostatistics with health data to support the development of preventive strategies and to guide future epidemiological research on non-communicable diseases in Serbia and beyond. Conclusions: This spatial analysis of CVD reveals pronounced geographical disparities in disease occurrence, demonstrating an uneven distribution of cardiovascular burden across settlements in the Republic of Serbia. The marked concentration of cases in South Bačka County, particularly within the Novi Sad metropolitan area, points to the existence of persistent high-risk zones that warrant targeted preventive measures and improved accessibility to healthcare services. While this spatial pattern reflects genuine differences in disease burden, it must also be interpreted in light of the study design, as the analysis is based on patients treated at a single tertiary medical institution. The location of the ICDV likely influenced the observed spatial distribution, with proximity to the Institute contributing to higher recorded patient numbers in adjacent settlements. The application of geostatistical and GIS-based methods proved highly effective in elucidating the spatial and temporal dynamics of cardiovascular morbidity, providing insights that extend beyond those obtainable through conventional epidemiological approaches. Incorporating trend analysis transforms spatial clustering from a descriptive tool into an early-warning mechanism capable of supporting proactive cardiovascular disease prevention. By integrating the EHS analysis with Kriging interpolation within a long-term spatio-temporal framework, this study offers a robust and transferable methodological approach for monitoring cardiovascular disease burden at the settlement level. The ability to identify persistent, emerging, and spatially concentrated high-risk areas provides policymakers with an evidence-based foundation for prioritizing preventive programs, optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources, and strengthening early-warning capacities within public health systems. In this context, spatially explicit analyses can support more effective, place-based interventions and contribute to the reduction of regional health inequalities. Beyond its immediate empirical findings, the study underscores the broader value of incorporating advanced spatial analytics into the surveillance of non-communicable diseases. The methodological framework presented here is readily applicable to other disease groups and geographic settings, particularly in regions where long-term clinical registries exist but remain underutilized for spatial epidemiological research. Future studies should aim to integrate data from multiple healthcare institutions to achieve a more comprehensive and representative national overview of CVD in Serbia, thereby minimizing biases related to healthcare accessibility and institutional proximity. The incorporation of population-normalized indicators, advanced spatio-temporal analyses, and machine learning techniques holds considerable potential for improving predictive modelling and supporting the early detection of emerging risk areas. Additionally, longitudinal investigations linking spatial patterns with demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and clinical determinants are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of preventive measures and for informing evidence-based public health strategies aimed at reducing the long-term burden of CVD. *Reference: Kričković, E., Lukić, T., Kričković, Z., Stojšić-Milosavljević, A., Cvetković, V. M., & Živanović, M. (2026). Spatio-temporal patterns and emerging trends of cardiovascular diseases in patients treated at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina. Open Geosciences, 18(1), 20250975. doi:10.1515/geo-2025-0975* [
Kričković, Emina, Lukić, Tin, Kričković, Zoran, Stojšić-Milosavljević, Anastazija, Cvetković, Vladimir M. and Živanović, Milica. “Spatio-temporal patterns and emerging trends of cardiovascular diseases in patients treated at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina” Open Geosciences, vol. 18, no. 1, 2026, pp. 20250975. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0975
Cultural Heritage Under Seismic Threat: Risk Awareness and Preparedness in the Bay of Kotor and Dubrovnik Littoral
Cross-border research examining seismic risk awareness and preparedness for cultural heritage in the Bay of Kotor and Dubrovnik Littoral.
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This study examines residents’ perceptions of cultural–historical heritage and seismic safety in two Adriatic regions – the Bay of Kotor (Montenegro) and the Dubrovnik Littoral (Croatia). A cross-sectional survey (N = 540; 270 from the Bay of Kotor and 270 from the Dubrovnik Littoral) used 5-point Likert items to assess heritage valuation, personal and community earthquake awareness, institutional readiness, and community practices. The analytical framework combined descriptive statistics, independent-samples t-tests (gender; place of residence), one-way ANOVA (education), Pearson correlations (age), and multiple linear regression on a composite index (“Cultural-Heritage and Seismic Preparedness Attitudes”). Respondents strongly endorsed the importance and tourism value of monuments (M ≈ 4.6–4.7) but expressed low confidence in institutional protection and local preparedness (M ≈ 2.0–2.4). No gender differences emerged (all p > 0.05). Place-based differences were limited: residents of the Bay of Kotor reported more frequent citizen training (p = 0.005) and greater adherence to seismic construction rules (p = 0.003). Age correlated positively with heritage valuation and risk awareness, and negatively with willingness to attend training and confidence in institutions. Education showed consistent effects; more-educated respondents valued heritage and risks more but were more critical of protection systems. In the regression, education was the only significant predictor of the composite index (B = −0.346, β = −0.134, p = 0.002), while overall explained variance was modest (R² = 0.022). Findings reveal a gap between strong cultural attachment and limited practical preparedness, underscoring the need for stronger intersectoral coordination, enforcement of seismic regulations, and systematic public training. Conclusions: This study examined how residents of the Bay of Kotor and the Dubrovnik Littoral perceive the value of their cultural and historical heritage and assess seismic preparedness. Overall, the findings support targeted, scalable strategies to bridge the gap between cultural appreciation and practical seismic preparedness in both regions. Respondents in both regions highly valued heritage as a cultural symbol and a tourism resource, yet expressed low confidence in institutional protection, community measures, and opportunities for citizen training. This highlights a persistent implementation gap: strong cultural attachment exists alongside weak daily preparedness and limited trust in protection systems. The originality of this study lies in its integrated examination of cultural-heritage valuation, seismic preparedness, and perceived institutional capacity within a comparative Adriatic coastal context. By focusing on the Bay of Kotor and Dubrovnik Littoral, it extends existing disaster-risk and heritage literature beyond physical vulnerability assessments and provides empirical evidence on the influence of community perceptions on preparedness in culturally significant, earthquake-prone environments. Hypothesis testing clarifies the sources of this gap. Hypothesis 1 is partly supported: while awareness of seismic risk is high, perceptions of community awareness and preparedness are moderate. Hypothesis 2 is supported: current protection, restoration, and code enforcement are viewed as inadequate. Hypothesis 3 is partially supported: gender differences are absent, but older and more educated respondents value heritage and recognize risks more and are more critical of institutional performance, with older adults showing less interest in training. Hypothesis 4 is supported: coordination efforts, such as drills and compliance, receive low public ratings. Hypothesis 5 is supported: willingness to attend training is very high, indicating that targeted education and communication could significantly improve resilience if systematically implemented. Policy should focus on transforming cultural pride into routine preparedness. Key actions include: 1) institutionalizing regular public education and drills in schools, museums, and community centers, with clear participation goals; 2) increasing visibility of seismic codes enforcement through inspection logs, certifications, and sanctions to rebuild trust; 3) customizing risk communication for different age groups – brief, practice-focused formats for older adults and participatory modules for youths; 4) providing heritage-compatible seismic retrofitting guidance and piloting it at iconic sites to show feasibility; and 5) establishing formal intersectoral coordination through standing working groups involving heritage authorities, civil protection, and local governments, with shared indicators and public reporting. Methodologically, the multiple regression explained only a modest part of the variation in attitudes, suggesting that factors such as training, enforcement intensity, building conditions, and funding cycles likely influence perceptions beyond demographics. This highlights the importance of combining community surveys with administrative and technical data to identify systemic barriers and monitor progress. The study has typical limitations of cross-sectional, self-report research: causality cannot be established, and results may be biased by recall or social desirability. The low explanatory power of the regression model suggests that additional contextual, social, institutional, or experiential factors not included in the present analysis may play a substantial role in shaping perceptions and preparedness. Accordingly, the regression findings should be interpreted as exploratory rather than strongly predictive. Future studies should use longitudinal designs to track changes post-interventions; incorporate administrative data on inspections, investments, and drills; and include technical evaluations of building vulnerability to link perceptions to objective risks. Both regions have strong social support for heritage preservation and a willingness to participate. If local institutions leverage this support through regular training, visible enforcement, and heritage-sensitive retrofitting, they can better protect cultural assets against seismic hazards. Closing the gap between cultural identity and effective implementation is essential for resilient, lasting protection of Adriatic heritage. *Reference: Grozdanić, G., Perošević, N., Cvetković, V. M., Manojlović, B., & Lukić, T. (2026). Cultural heritage under seismic threat: Risk awareness and preparedness in the Bay of Kotor and Dubrovnik Littoral. Open Geosciences, 18(1), 20250986. doi:10.1515/geo-2025-0986* [
Grozdanić, G., Perošević, N., Cvetković, V., Manojlović, B. & Lukić, T. (2026). Cultural heritage under seismic threat: risk awareness and preparedness in the Bay of Kotor and Dubrovnik Littoral. *Open Geosciences*, *18*(1), 20250986. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0986
Assessing Local Disaster Governance in Coastal Bangladesh
Comparative research on institutional and community perspectives regarding local disaster-management committees in coastal Bangladesh.
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Abstract
Despite substantial investments in decentralized disaster governance, Bangladesh’s coastal regions remain highly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Disaster Management Committees (DMCs) were established to enhance local preparedness, response, and recovery through participatory governance. However, empirical evidence on their effectiveness at the community level remains limited. This study examines the institutional capacity, operational effectiveness, and governance legitimacy of DMCs in two disaster-prone coastal upazilas: Dumki and Kalapara of Patuakhali District. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining a community survey (N = 100) with key informant interviews (N = 30). Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, and four composite indices were constructed: Community Awareness Index (CAI), Community Satisfaction Index (CSI), Institutional Capacity Index (ICI), and Operational Effectiveness Index (OEI). Qualitative data were analyzed thematically to contextualize institutional practices and explain the gap between institutional claims and community experience. The findings reveal a pronounced disconnect between institutional self-assessment and community-level perceptions. Community awareness of DMCs was very low (CAI = 0.07), and community satisfaction with DMC performance was also very low (CSI = 0.04), indicating limited public engagement and weak service visibility. In contrast, DMC members reported very high institutional capacity (ICI = 0.95) and ceiling-level operational effectiveness (OEI = 1.00), suggesting a substantial mismatch between institutional perceptions and community realities. Union-wise differences in awareness and satisfaction were limited and not statistically significant. Firth penalized logistic regression likewise did not identify any statistically significant predictor of community satisfaction, indicating that dissatisfaction was broad-based rather than confined to specific respondent groups or locations. Overall, the results suggest that decentralization alone is insufficient to ensure participatory and effective disaster governance without accountability, transparency, and sustained community engagement. The study highlights the importance of community-validated performance measures and stronger accountability mechanisms for improving local disaster risk governance in climate-vulnerable settings. Conclusions: This study critically examined the institutional capacity and operational effectiveness of Disaster Management Committees (DMCs) using a mixed-methods approach. By integrating community survey data with key informant interviews and composite index analysis, the research provides robust empirical evidence of how disaster governance is experienced at the local level. The findings reveal a remarkable performance gap between institutional self-assessment and community experience. DMC members reported very high levels of institutional capacity and operational effectiveness. In contrast, community respondents demonstrated extremely low awareness of DMCs, minimal engagement, and widespread dissatisfaction with preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. However, because the institutional measures were based on self-assessed responses from DMC members, they should be interpreted cautiously and not as independently verified evidence of actual operational performance. This divergence highlights a gap between documentation and reality, where procedural compliance and reporting do not translate into meaningful or visible outcomes for disaster-affected populations. Importantly, the analysis suggests that dissatisfaction is structural rather than confined to particular respondent groups or unions. The penalized regression model did not identify any statistically significant predictor of community satisfaction, and union-level differences in awareness and satisfaction were also not statistically significant. These findings indicate that poor community-level outcomes are systemic across the study area. From a methodological perspective, the study demonstrates the value of combining mixed methods with standardized composite indices to assess governance performance from both institutional and community perspectives. This approach enables systematic comparison and offers a useful framework for evaluating local disaster governance in other climate-vulnerable contexts. Overall, the findings suggest that decentralization alone is insufficient to ensure effective disaster risk reduction. Strengthening DMC performance will require a shift from compliance-driven governance toward community-validated outcomes, supported by inclusive engagement mechanisms, transparent reporting, and stronger accountability systems. Aligning institutional practice with community realities is essential for building trust, enhancing local resilience, and realizing the participatory intent of Bangladesh’s disaster management framework. *Reference: Tamim, S. T. R., Faisal, M., Saha, M. K., Boiddho, J., & Cvetković, V. M. (2026). Assessing Local Disaster Governance in Coastal Bangladesh: Comparing Institutional and Community Perspectives on Disaster Management Committees. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 465-486. https\://doi.org/10.66050/3cawjv12* [
Tamim, T. R., Faisal, M., Saha, M. K., Boiddho, J., & Cvetković, V. M. (2026). Assessing Local Disaster Governance in Coastal Bangladesh: Comparing Institutional and Community Perspectives on Disaster Management Committees. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *8*(1), 465-486. https\://doi.org/10.66050/3cawjv12
AI, Risk and Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh
A mixed-methods research framework exploring how artificial intelligence can support inclusion, risk reduction and resilience in marginalized communities in Bangladesh.
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This study examines how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the implementation of policies shape inclusive educational outcomes for marginalized learners in Bangladesh, using evidence from Sherpur Sadar Upazilla. A convergent mixed-methods design integrated a student survey (N = 213; seven institutions; March–September 2024) with qualitative data from 37 stakeholders (teachers and policymakers) collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Quantitative findings show that AI tool adoption was the strongest predictor of a composite educational outcome score (β = 0.38, p < 0.001), followed by institutional support (β = 0.25, p = 0.01). In contrast, the policy implementation gap—defined as the mismatch between policy intent and on-the-ground delivery—was negatively associated with outcomes (β = −0.12, p = 0.04). Digital infrastructure quality was positively associated with the outcome but was not statistically significant in the multivariable model (β = 0.17, p = 0.12). The model demonstrated strong explanatory power (R² = 0.67; F(4, 208) = 42.3; p < 0.001). Disparity analyses revealed persistent urban–rural inequities in reliable internet access (94.6% vs. 69.7%) and device readiness, with tablet access emerging as a key enabler of advanced AI-supported learning. Qualitative results corroborated three binding constraints: limited teacher AI preparedness, affordability barriers, and trust concerns related to privacy and algorithmic bias. Building on these findings, the paper proposes a policy–innovation framework centered on localized AI toolkits, sustained teacher upskilling, device-access interventions, and enforceable fairness and transparency safeguards to advance equitable learning opportunities. Conclusions: This study shows that artificial intelligence can support more inclusive and equitable education in Bangladesh when it is applied as a pedagogical enhancer (e.g., personalized learning environments and intelligent tutoring systems) rather than treated primarily as a curricular subject. Mixed-methods evidence from Sherpur Sadar Upazilla indicates that AI-related benefits are not distributed evenly: improvements are shaped by a persistent rural–urban implementation gap and by differences in schools’ capacity to translate technology into learning gains. The findings highlight that effective AI-supported learning depends less on general “technology availability” and more on whether learners and schools have access to suitable learning devices, reliable connectivity, and the instructional capacity to integrate AI into everyday teaching practices. The study also underscores that policy impact is determined by implementation quality, not only policy adoption. Where policies are not fully operationalized at the school level—through appropriate resourcing, training, and support—AI initiatives tend to produce uneven outcomes and may unintentionally reinforce existing inequalities. In addition, risk and trust factors are central to sustainable adoption. Concerns related to privacy, bias, and transparency—especially in disadvantaged settings—can reduce acceptance and participation, underscoring the need to embed ethical safeguards into AI deployment rather than address them only after systems are scaled. On this basis, three priorities emerge. First, efforts to improve inclusion should focus on device readiness and infrastructure parity, ensuring that marginalized learners can access AI tools that support advanced learning activities rather than only basic, mobile-compatible functions. Second, teacher development and institutional support should be strengthened through sustained, locally relevant training and ongoing mentoring that helps educators translate AI tools into effective classroom practice. Third, governance and risk protections should be reinforced through precise accountability mechanisms, transparency practices, and practical fairness safeguards that build trust and reduce harm for vulnerable groups. Future research should assess the long-term educational effects of different device strategies, compare tablet-centered and mobile-first approaches under realistic cost constraints, and evaluate scalable teacher-support models that can be embedded within existing education systems. Additional work is also needed to refine culturally adaptive AI tools and communication approaches that strengthen trust and participation across diverse communities. Overall, the evidence suggests that AI can advance educational inclusion, but only when innovation is paired with targeted implementation capacity and robust safeguards so that technology reduces—rather than reproduces—structural disadvantage. *Reference\:Karmaker, R., & Cvetković, V. M. (2026). Policy, Risk and Innovation: A Mixed-Methods Framework for Using AI to Foster Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 385-408. https\://doi.org/10.66050/scv48268* [
Karmaker, R., & Cvetković, V. M. (2026). Policy, Risk and Innovation: A Mixed-Methods Framework for Using AI to Foster Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh. *International Journal of Disaster Risk Management*, *8*(1), 385-408. https\://doi.org/
Disaster Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Agriculture in Bangladesh
Research examining disaster risk and adaptation strategies in coastal agriculture, with evidence from Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila, Bangladesh.
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Abstract
Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision-makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, and intensity, while on the other hand, they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapidly addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying them in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visualisation for modern disaster risk management are examined. Conclusion: Disaster risk management is a very complex process that incorporates a large number of elements and phases directly related to the characteristics of the disaster itself. That is why, with today’s degree of scientific development, its functioning is unimaginable without certain information technologies that help decision-makers collect, analyze, display, and understand specific spatial and temporal information. The lack of absolute prediction, intensity, and destructive power alarmingly emphasize the need for a rapid decision-making process. This decision-making process in risk management, aside from human errors, can be greatly enhanced by the use of fast information systems. The Geographic Information System improves the disaster risk management process in various ways. In the period prior to the occurrence of the disaster itself, this system can be used for planning activities, while during the disaster, it can be used as significant logistical support in the decision-making process. The advantages of using information systems in the disaster risk management process are multiple and include: efficient and timely review of the overall situation on the ground, decision-making based on highly professional operational information, improved coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation activities or elimination of consequences in the area affected by a disaster, improved communication in the field, better allocation of resources and assistance to affected citizens, etc. It is necessary to continue the development of information systems for disaster risk management, as this can greatly mitigate the catastrophic consequences caused by unprofessional and untimely decisions. *Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. Paper presented at the International Scientific and professional conference – 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.* [
Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. *International Scientific and Professional Conference – 40 Years of Higher Education in the Field of Security – Theory and Practice*, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, 1281–1295.
Disasters and Deviant Behaviour: Risk Factors and Citizens’ Perceptions in Serbia
Empirical research examining disaster-related deviant behaviour, associated risk factors and citizens’ perceptions in Serbia.
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Abstract
Disasters, in addition to immediate material losses, can trigger secondary psychosocial processes that increase the risk of various forms of deviant and violent behavior. This paper aims to examine citizens’ perceptions in Serbia regarding the connections between disasters, violence, and deviant behavior, as well as factors associated with awareness, self-assessed readiness to respond, and attitudes toward the role of institutions in prevention. The research was conducted through an online survey of 106 respondents in Serbia. Likert scales (P26–P30) and categorical variables (P12–P25) were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, chi-square tests of independence, one-way ANOVA, and multiple linear regression. The results show a high level of basic awareness of natural disaster and violence concepts, but also a strong perception that a significant part of the Serbian population lacks adequate operational knowledge of disaster consequences and post-disaster actions (M=4.39). Respondents are more likely to recognize the impact of disasters on mental health (M=4.21) and the importance of competent services in preventing violence (M=4.12). At the same time, their self-assessed readiness to respond is moderate (M=3.82). The strongest association within attitudes was observed between support for education and assessment of the impact of disasters on mental health (r=0.40; p<0.001). Chi-square analyses indicated several significant associations with gender and income (small to moderate effects). At the same time, ANOVA differences were confirmed in two cases: by gender for attitude about PTSD/mental health and by income for self-rated readiness to respond. Regression models suggest a limited role for sociodemographic factors in explaining attitudes, suggesting a likely greater role for experiential and contextual factors (disaster experience, trust in institutions, exposure to training). The findings support the need for systemic risk communication and the development of practically oriented educational programs that, with clear reporting protocols and inter-institutional coordination, can reduce the risk of escalation of violence and deviant behaviors in crisis settings. Conclusions: This study showed that citizens, to a considerable extent, recognise that disasters may be accom-panied by an increase in psychosocial risks and deviant behaviour, and that there is a pronounced perception of insufficient awareness and knowledge about potential post‑disaster consequences. This finding indicates that prevention in non‑crisis periods is critical: without continuous educa-tion and clear response protocols, the risk of incorrect reactions, increased conflict, and violence may be higher when everyday life is disrupted. Analyses of differences and predictors suggest that, overall, sociodemographic characteristics have limited explanatory power for attitudes. ANOVA identified only two significant effects out of 30 tested, suggesting that attitudes are more shaped by factors such as experience, information, exposure to education, and self‑efficacy than by gender, age, or education as isolated categories. In addition, the regression model for the assessment that “citizens do not have adequate knowledge” did not identify significant demo-graphic predictors, strengthening the need for future studies to include variables measuring knowledge, experience, and educational exposure. From a practical perspective, the findings sup-port recommendations from the master’s thesis that it is necessary to design and implement new programmes for “developing and raising awareness” among citizens of all generations, through social‑media campaigns, programmes in schools and universities, as well as periodic train-ings/lectures (e.g., every six months) in the public and private sectors. These programmes must be linked to concrete procedures: what citizens should do when they notice violence in the community after a disaster, whom they should report to, how in-ter‑institutional coordination works, and what support is available to victims. Overall, the paper indicates that the following are key to reducing the risk of deviant behaviour after disasters: (1) systematic education and risk communication, (2) clear mechanisms for reporting and responding to violence in crisis conditions, and (3) strengthening the role of institutions through coordination and visible support measures. Such an orientation can contribute not only to reducing the conse-quences of disasters but also to strengthening community resilience through better preparedness, greater trust, and more effective prevention of violence escalation under crisis conditions. *Reference\:Cvetković, V., Stojanović, T., Jakovljević, V., & Cvetković, V. (2026). Disasters and Deviant Behaviour: Risk Factors and Citizens’ Perceptions in Serbia. Fourth Memorial Scientific and Professional Conference – Modern Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Belgrade. https\://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19236675* [
Cvetković, V. M., Mančić, T., Jakovljević, V., Cvetković, V. D. (2026). *Disasters and deviant behavior: Risk factors and perceptions of citizens in Serbia* [Conference abstract]. In V. M. Cvetković (Ed.), *Abstract Collection – Fourth Memorial Scientific and Professional Conference “Predrag Marić”: Modern Integrated Disaster Risk Management* (pp. 20–21). University of Belgrade–Faculty of Security.
Autonomous AI Systems, Environmental Security and Resource Protection
Research into ethical and regulatory challenges surrounding autonomous AI systems used for environmental security and resource protection.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Deep Landslide Dynamics on the Danube Slope: Novi Sad Case Study
A geospatial research stream focused on deep landslide dynamics along the Danube slope in Novi Sad and implications for hazard assessment.
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Abstract
A geospatial research stream focused on deep landslide dynamics along the Danube slope in Novi Sad and implications for hazard assessment. The research is presented within the SPS-DRM project portfolio as an evidence-oriented contribution to disaster risk reduction, preparedness, safety, resilience, or related institutional and community practice. The research is situated within the broader field of natural-hazard risk, preparedness, vulnerability and resilience. It considers the problem through the practical requirements of prevention, early warning, preparedness, response and recovery. Particular attention is given to the factors that shape risk perception, preparedness, institutional performance, community capacity or operational effectiveness, depending on the research context. The analytical perspective links scientific evidence with the needs of decision-makers, practitioners, local communities and other stakeholders involved in disaster-risk reduction. The study is relevant for identifying weaknesses, capacities and priority areas in which targeted interventions can improve safety and resilience. Its findings can support the development of more precise policies, preparedness programmes, training activities, communication strategies and risk-informed planning measures. From a practical perspective, the research emphasises the importance of coordination between institutions and communities, together with timely access to reliable information and adequate resources. The research also contributes to the wider SPS-DRM evidence base by connecting empirical or analytical findings with concrete recommendations for disaster-management practice.
Lukić, T., Sabljić, L., Puhar, D., Marković, S. B., Bosnić, M. G., Krsmanović, P., Marković, R. S., Durlević, U., Petković Srzentić, G., Spalević, V., & Cvetković, V. M. (2025). Deep landslide dynamics on the Danube slope – Novi Sad case study. In *Geospatial and Environmental Dynamics – LAMINATION: Abstract book* (pp. 89–90). Novi Sad, Serbia: Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts & University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management.
Geospatial Patterns of Cardiovascular Diseases in Northern Serbia
Spatial-health research examining cardiovascular-disease patterns using evidence from the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina.
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Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases represent one of the most dominant categories of non-communicable diseases, with a high prevalence both in Serbia and globally. Understanding their spatial distribution provides valuable insights for public health planning and disease prevention. This study applies geospatial analysis to examine the patterns of CVD among patients treated at the Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina in Serbia, over the period 1995–2023. Beyond identifying spatial clusters, the analysis reveals long-term intensification of CVD burden in the South Bačka urban-suburban zone, indicating a sustained spatial polarization of cardiovascular morbidity over nearly three decades. Mann-Kendall trends per settlement were calculated. The spatial dimension of the research was addressed using the Emerging Hot Spot Analysis to detect statistically significant clusters of high and low values. To further refine the spatial representation of CVD clusters, the Kriging interpolation method was applied. The findings underscore the significance of geospatial methods in pinpointing high-risk areas in cardiovascular diseases, providing an evidence-based foundation for targeted healthcare interventions and resource allocation. Moreover, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating spatial geostatistics with health data to support the development of preventive strategies and to guide future epidemiological research on non-communicable diseases in Serbia and beyond. Conclusions: This spatial analysis of CVD reveals pronounced geographical disparities in disease occurrence, demonstrating an uneven distribution of cardiovascular burden across settlements in the Republic of Serbia. The marked concentration of cases in South Bačka County, particularly within the Novi Sad metropolitan area, points to the existence of persistent high-risk zones that warrant targeted preventive measures and improved accessibility to healthcare services. While this spatial pattern reflects genuine differences in disease burden, it must also be interpreted in light of the study design, as the analysis is based on patients treated at a single tertiary medical institution. The location of the ICDV likely influenced the observed spatial distribution, with proximity to the Institute contributing to higher recorded patient numbers in adjacent settlements. The application of geostatistical and GIS-based methods proved highly effective in elucidating the spatial and temporal dynamics of cardiovascular morbidity, providing insights that extend beyond those obtainable through conventional epidemiological approaches. Incorporating trend analysis transforms spatial clustering from a descriptive tool into an early-warning mechanism capable of supporting proactive cardiovascular disease prevention. By integrating the EHS analysis with Kriging interpolation within a long-term spatio-temporal framework, this study offers a robust and transferable methodological approach for monitoring cardiovascular disease burden at the settlement level. The ability to identify persistent, emerging, and spatially concentrated high-risk areas provides policymakers with an evidence-based foundation for prioritizing preventive programs, optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources, and strengthening early-warning capacities within public health systems. In this context, spatially explicit analyses can support more effective, place-based interventions and contribute to the reduction of regional health inequalities. Beyond its immediate empirical findings, the study underscores the broader value of incorporating advanced spatial analytics into the surveillance of non-communicable diseases. The methodological framework presented here is readily applicable to other disease groups and geographic settings, particularly in regions where long-term clinical registries exist but remain underutilized for spatial epidemiological research. Future studies should aim to integrate data from multiple healthcare institutions to achieve a more comprehensive and representative national overview of CVD in Serbia, thereby minimizing biases related to healthcare accessibility and institutional proximity. The incorporation of population-normalized indicators, advanced spatio-temporal analyses, and machine learning techniques holds considerable potential for improving predictive modelling and supporting the early detection of emerging risk areas. Additionally, longitudinal investigations linking spatial patterns with demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and clinical determinants are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of preventive measures and for informing evidence-based public health strategies aimed at reducing the long-term burden of CVD. *Reference: Kričković, E., Lukić, T., Kričković, Z., Stojšić-Milosavljević, A., Cvetković, V. M., & Živanović, M. (2026). Spatio-temporal patterns and emerging trends of cardiovascular diseases in patients treated at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina. Open Geosciences, 18(1), 20250975. doi:10.1515/geo-2025-0975* [
Kričković, Emina, Lukić, Tin, Kričković, Zoran, Stojšić-Milosavljević, Anastazija, Cvetković, Vladimir M. and Živanović, Milica. “Spatio-temporal patterns and emerging trends of cardiovascular diseases in patients treated at the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases of Vojvodina” Open Geosciences, vol. 18, no. 1, 2026, pp. 20250975. https\://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2025-0975
Psychosocial Support in Emergency and Disaster Management: The Role of the Red Cross of Serbia
Qualitative research on Psychosocial First Aid, mental-health recovery and the role of the Red Cross of Serbia in emergency and disaster management.
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Abstract
As emergencies and disasters continue to strain public health systems globally, integrating psychosocial support into national response frameworks has emerged as a critical, though often overlooked, priority. This study examines the role of the Red Cross of Serbia in delivering Psychosocial First Aid (PFA), highlighting it as a vital yet underrepresented component within the broader scope of emergency response. Grounded in a theoretical framework, the paper outlines the core principles of PFA, its significance during crises, and the psychosocial impact of disasters on individuals and communities. It further explores the relationship between mental health and community resilience, underscoring the importance of mental recovery in disaster contexts. Utilising a qualitative approach, the study draws on an expert interview with a representative of the Red Cross of Serbia to investigate the current state of PFA implementation. Particular attention is given to institutional integration, training protocols, and prevailing public perceptions of psychosocial support. The findings reveal a significant disparity between the established provision of medical first aid and the marginal status of psychosocial assistance. Key barriers identified include insufficient institutional acknowledgement, a lack of structured and standardised training programs, and limited awareness of PFA as a distinct and necessary intervention. Despite these challenges, the Red Cross of Serbia has initiated several promising efforts—such as developing educational materials, training volunteers, and establishing internal support mechanisms—which provide a solid foundation for future advancement. This paper argues for the systematic inclusion of psychosocial support in emergency management strategies. It emphasises the need for coordinated, evidence-informed, and person-centred approaches to fostering health and resilience in disaster-affected communities. Conclusion: From the dawn of civilisation to the complexities of the modern age, societies have persistently confronted a broad spectrum of threats—ranging from wars and infectious disease outbreaks to natural disasters, technological accidents, and the devastating misuse of weapons of mass destruction. While these events inevitably inflict extensive material losses, the human toll—the disruption to life, health, and psychosocial stability—leaves the deepest scars. In response, diverse emergency measures have evolved, with medical and psychosocial first aid emerging as the cornerstones of immediate and effective intervention. The initial moments following a crisis are often the most critical. Timely medical assistance can save lives and stabilize patients for further care. Equally important, psychosocial first aid plays a pivotal role in alleviating acute emotional distress, restoring a sense of safety, and mitigating the risk of enduring mental health complications. The synergy of these two forms of support is essential—not just for the survival of individuals but also for the collective recovery of communities. Yet, in real-world scenarios, their implementation is rarely balanced. Psychosocial support tends to be sidelined, overshadowed by the more visible urgency of physical injuries and clinical care. The Red Cross of Serbia’s experience serves as a compelling example of how structured psychosocial programs can bridge this gap. Through well-coordinated efforts grounded in humanitarian values, their initiatives span every phase of emergency response—from readiness and rapid reaction to long-term recovery—delivering compassionate, culturally appropriate care. Nonetheless, challenges persist. The shortage of trained mental health professionals, the fragmented application of psychosocial protocols, societal stigma, and limited public literacy about mental health all hinder the full integration of psychosocial support within national emergency strategies. A multi-layered approach is essential to address these barriers. This includes strengthening institutional frameworks, securing sustained legal and financial backing, and promoting intersectoral collaboration across health, education, and emergency services. Parallel to this, cultivating a culture of prevention through public education, psychosocial preparedness, and community-based resilience programs can equip individuals to better navigate the emotional aftermath of disasters. Ultimately, health must be understood as a balance between body and mind. Sustainable recovery is only possible when emergency systems reflect this duality—treating both physical wounds and psychosocial ones with equal care. Medical and psychosocial first aid are not parallel tracks but converging paths toward a singular mission: preserving human life, dignity, and the capacity to rebuild in the face of adversity. *Reference: Janković, Lj., Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., Renner, R., Jakovljević, V. (2025) Integrating Psychosocial Support into Emergency and Disaster Management and Public Safety: The Role of the Red Cross of Serbia. (2025). International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies, 1(1), 99-124.* [
Janković, Lj., Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., Renner, R., Jakovljević, V. (2025). Integrating Psychosocial Support into Emergency and Disaster Management and Public Safety: The Role of the Red Cross of Serbia. (2025). *International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies*, 1(1), 99-124.
In-Depth Analysis of the Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia
A critical SWOT-based examination of systemic strengths, weaknesses and improvement opportunities within Serbia’s disaster-risk-management framework.
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Abstract
This study comprehensively explores Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management System, aiming to critically evaluate its inherent strengths and weaknesses. Using descriptive-analytical methods and qualitative interpretation, SWOT analysis was applied to collect data from scientific papers, books, and institutional reports. This study delves deeply into the nuances of Serbia’s Disaster Management Framework, revealing a nuanced landscape of strengths, weaknesses, and strategic improvement opportunities. Identified strengths underscore a robust foundation characterized by proficient professionals, state-of-the-art technology, and cohesive teamwork, all pivotal for effective emergency preparedness and response. Conversely, weaknesses underscore pressing imperatives for enhancements in regulatory enforcement, resource allocation, and infrastructure upgrades, presently hampering the framework’s efficacy and response readiness. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on disaster risk management and serves as a catalyst for further scholarly inquiry and policy formulation. By mapping out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework and integrating diverse data sources, the study enriches theoretical models and lays the groundwork for practical policy interventions. Its findings, including precise recommendations for policy reform and strategic improvements, provide valuable insights for policymakers, emergency management experts, and stakeholders seeking to enhance disaster preparedness and response capabilities on both national and global scales. Conclusion: This research thoroughly explores the intricacies of Serbia’s Disaster Management Framework, uncovering a complex array of strengths, weaknesses, and areas ripe for strategic improvement. The strengths identified highlight a solid base marked by skilled professionals, cutting-edge technology, and effective teamwork, all crucial for proficient emergency preparedness and response. On the flip side, the weaknesses point to urgent needs for improvement in areas like regulatory enforcement, resource distribution, and infrastructure upgrades, which currently impede the framework’s effi-ciency and response capabilities. Strategically, the study recommends a comprehensive approach to boost Serbia’s disaster management effectiveness. Suggestions include strengthening international and regional partnerships, ramping up investment in technology and infrastructure, and expanding training and public awareness initiatives. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of proactive policy development aimed at resilience and thorough risk management. The study posits that with focused reforms, increased funding, and ongoing commitment to enhancement, Serbia could sub-stantially improve its resilience to disasters, thus better protecting its people and infrastructure from the growing unpredictability of global environmental challenges. This research not only adds to the ongoing conversation on disaster risk management but also acts as a springboard for further studies and policy-making in this crucial area. This study not only maps out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework but also enriches the academic conversation around disaster management. It presents a detailed framework suited for comparative analysis in various national contexts, helping to deepen the un-derstanding of both universal and region-specific challenges in disaster management. The method-ology used in this research strengthens the integrity of disaster management studies by integrating various data sources, which refine theoretical models for disaster resilience and response. Thus, this research lays a solid foundation for further theoretical exploration and offers insightful views on the dynamics of disaster management systems. On a practical level, this study’s outcomes are crucial for shaping policies and strategic planning in disaster management. By identifying key systemic weaknesses and areas needing strategic improvements, the research delivers precise recommenda-tions for policy reform. These recommendations include creating extensive training programs for emergency personnel and the public, optimizing resource distribution, and encouraging mul-ti-sectoral collaborations. These measures are vital for boosting disaster preparedness and response capabilities and contributing to comprehensive enhancements in national disaster management strategies. The practical insights provided are designed to assist policymakers, emergency man-agement experts, and stakeholders in developing more effective and efficient practices in disaster management, ultimately fostering a more resilient society. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). In-Depth Analysis of Disaster (Risk) Management System in Serbia: A Critical Examination of Systemic Strengths and Weaknesses. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0762.v1* [
Cvetković, V. (2024). In-Depth Analysis of Disaster (Risk) Management System in Serbia: A Critical Examination of Systemic Strengths and Weaknesses. International Scientific and Practical Conference: “International Experience in Emergency Risk Management” in Moscow, Russia, NOK International Civil Defence Organisation, 30 May.
Regional Network of Disaster Risk Management Experts in the Western Balkans
A research and professional initiative focused on strengthening regional expert cooperation, knowledge exchange and disaster-risk-management capacity in the Western Balkans.
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Abstract
The Western Balkans region is persistently vulnerable to natural hazards, inadequate infrastructure, and limited institutional capacities, necessitating a collaborative approach to disaster risk management. This paper presents a comprehensive project led by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (NSD-URVs) in Belgrade, aiming to establish and strengthen a regional network of experts in disaster risk management. The project focuses on building expertise, facilitating knowledge exchange, promoting expert coordination, and enhancing cross-border collaboration. Key activities include developing a web platform, organising an international conference, and advocating for regional policies that integrate best practices and innovations in disaster risk management. The expected outcomes are the establishment of a cohesive network, enhanced expertise and coordination, and improved preparedness and responsiveness to disasters. By leveraging collective expertise and resources, this initiative aims to fortify the region’s resilience against potential disasters. Addressing the identified gaps and implementing the proposed policy recommendations can significantly enhance the region’s resilience to natural hazards. Future research should focus on the implementation and impact of these recommendations to ensure continuous improvement in disaster preparedness and response. Conclusion: The establishment and strengthening of a regional network of experts for disaster risk management in the Western Balkans will be a significant step towards enhancing resilience and preparedness for dis-asters. This initiative, led by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Bel-grade, will aim to form a cohesive network of experts that will facilitate continuous knowledge ex-change, experience sharing, and strategic planning, thereby significantly improving the collective un-derstanding and capacity for disaster risk management. One of the key outcomes will be the creation of a dynamic platform enabling experts to exchange insights and strategies, cultivating a culture of active information sharing and collaborative learning within the network. Through targeted training and capacity-building initiatives, the knowledge and skills of the experts will be significantly en-hanced, leading to the formation of a group of highly qualified professionals ready to implement the latest practices in disaster risk management. Improved coordination mechanisms among experts, government agencies, and relevant stake-holders, along with strengthened cross-border collaboration, will contribute to more efficient disaster response through streamlined communication and cooperation. Additionally, the preparedness and responsiveness of the network to swiftly and effectively react to emerging disasters will be improved, reducing the impact of disasters on the region. Also, successful advocacy for policies that support the integration of best practices and innovations in disaster risk management will contribute to the devel-opment and adoption of policies at both regional and national levels, fostering a more resilient and proactive approach to disaster management. These results will have profound implications for the Western Balkans region. Firstly, they will enable better preparedness and response to disasters, thereby reducing socio-economic losses and in-creasing the safety of the population. Secondly, the established network of experts will serve as a foundation for further collaboration and development, ensuring sustainability and continuous pro-gress in disaster risk management. Finally, these efforts will set standards and examples that can be applied in other regions facing similar challenges. Overall, the initiatives and achievements outlined in this paper will emphasize the importance of regional cooperation, continuous knowledge exchange, and strong policies in combating disaster risks. Through joint efforts and commitment, the Western Balkans region can become a model of resilience and effective disaster management for other regions around the world. It foresees the successful establishment of a regional network of experts, which will enhance knowledge sharing, elevate expertise levels, and strengthen coordination frameworks. These devel-opments and successes are poised to demonstrate the efficacy and impact of joint efforts in boosting regional resilience and preparedness for managing disasters. Additionally, the recommendations pro-vided aim to further solidify these advancements and ensure a resilient and proactive approach to dis-aster management across the region. • Establishment of the regional network of experts for disaster risk management in the Western Balkans: successful creation and establishment of a cohesive regional network comprising ex-perts in disaster risk management; formation of a collaborative platform for ongoing knowledge exchange, coordination, and joint initiatives among experts in the Western Balkans; • Facilitated knowledge and experience exchange: established a dynamic platform for experts to exchange insights, experiences, and strategies, thereby enhancing the collective understanding of disaster risk management; cultivated a culture of active information sharing and collabora-tive learning within the network; • Enhanced expertise in disaster risk management: strengthened the knowledge and skills of the regional network of experts through targeted training and capacity-building initiatives; devel-oped a pool of highly skilled professionals well-versed in the latest advancements and best practices in disaster risk management; • Improved coordination mechanisms among experts: enhanced coordination mechanisms among experts, government agencies, and relevant stakeholders; fostered a more cohesive and efficient response to disasters by facilitating streamlined communication and collaboration; • Strengthened cross-border collaboration: successfully strengthened collaboration and infor-mation-sharing mechanisms among experts from Western Balkan countries; facilitated a more coordinated regional response to disaster events through increased cooperation and knowledge exchange across borders; • Enhanced capacity for quick response: improved the preparedness and responsiveness of the re-gional network to swiftly and effectively react to emerging disasters; established efficient pro-tocols and mechanisms for rapid response, reducing the impact of disasters on the region; • Advocacy for regional policies: successfully advocated for policies supporting the integration of best practices and innovations in disaster risk management; contributed to the development and adoption of policies at both regional and national levels, fostering a more resilient and pro-active approach to disaster management. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Empowering the Regional Network of Experts for Disaster Risk Management in the Western Balkans by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1043.v1* [
Cvetković, V. (2024). Empowering the Regional Network of Experts for Disaster Risk Management in the Western Balkans by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management. International Scientific and Practical Conference: “International Experience in Emergency Risk Management” in Moscow, Russia
Volunteer Firefighting Organizations in Protection and Rescue Systems
Research examining the place, capabilities and contribution of volunteer firefighting organizations within protection-and-rescue systems.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Tactical Protection and Rescue in Traffic-Accident-Induced Disasters
Applied research into firefighting and rescue tactics following traffic accidents, including emerging operational challenges associated with electric vehicles.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Efficiency of Disaster and Crisis Management Policy at the Local Level
Policy-oriented research examining the efficiency of disaster and crisis management at local level and extracting lessons from the Serbian context.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Comprehensive Databases on Natural and Technological Hazards and Disasters
A research-infrastructure project consolidating disaster databases and mapping approaches for natural and human-induced technological hazards.
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Abstract
In this paper that presents the quantitative study, authors examined the influence of parenthood on the citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, 19 of these were randomly selected. In selected municipalities the research was undertaken in those areas and households that have been or are potentially the most vulnerable in relation to the level of high water with the use of a multi-stage random sample. In the research it was applied test method based on the technique of interviewing. The research results indicate that heavy rains encourage parents in higher percents to think about preparedness for responding in relation to citizens who are not parents. Parents to a greater extent as the reasons for not taking preventive measures point out that their assistance in this matter would not mean much, that they expected that in actions of protection and rescue primarily would be engaged citizens from flood-affected areas, then they know the safety procedures for response and they would be to a greater extent evacuated in friends’ places, etc. In domestic theory on disasters, there has been an insufficient number of experimental researches, while at the same there are no papers on the relationship between parenting and the preparedness of citizens to respond. Thus, the practical aim of the research was to contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods. Namely, the research indicates the way how should influence on parents in order to raise preparedness for response to a higher level. Conclusion: Parents to a higher percentage/greater extent about non-parents think about preparedness to respond due to heavy rains. They point out the following reasons for not taking action on preparedness: “My help would not mean much” and “I expected the citizens from flood-affected areas would be primarily engaged.” They are familiar with safety procedures, they would evacuate to a friend’s place, they point out that someone at work talked about the floods; they know where elders, disabled, and infants live in the community; they know what help is needed by elders, disabled, and infants; they know what they should do after official warnings about the approach of the flood; they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period after the flood; they know where the water valve, gas valve, and electricity switch are; they know how to handle the water and gas valve, electricity switch; they say that they got the information about the floods at work, on the radio; they would like to be educated about the floods on television; they scored a level of assessment of risk from flooding in the local community in the next year and five years and higher familiarity with the responsibilities of first responders in natural disasters caused by flooding; they have food and water supplies for four days; they never replenish supplies they have; they have copies of important financial, personal and other documents and they have home insurance in case of a flood. On the other hand, the respondents who are not parents to a higher percentage/greater extent: would engage in assisting the victims in the field and in shelters, scored a rating level of individual preparedness and preparedness of households to respond. They point out the following reasons for not taking preventive measures on a personal plan: “I do not consider myself or my household at risk of flooding” and “I have no support from the local community”; they expect help from non-governmental humanitarian organizations in the first 72 hours after the occurrence of a flood; they would evacuate to shelters during the floods and rented apartments; they believe their neighbors can rescue themselves in the event of floods; they say they got the information on floods from family members, friends, at school, at college, through the informal education system, through the Internet; they would like to be educated through video games, scored a level of familiarity with the nearby shelters; they possess: supplies at home, food supplies for two days, water supply for one day and two days; they replenish supplies once a month and once a year. *Reference – Cvetković, M. V., Ivanov, A., & Milojković, B. (2016). Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by floods. VI International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance, Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies godine.* [
Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Dragićević, S., & Novković, I. (2018). The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction. *8th International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days”*, 2–3 October, Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade.
Urban Search and Rescue from Rubble
Applied research on protection-and-rescue tactics for locating and rescuing people from collapsed structures in urban environments.
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Abstract
Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision-makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, and intensity, while on the other hand, they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapidly addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying them in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visualisation for modern disaster risk management are examined. Conclusion: Disaster risk management is a very complex process that incorporates a large number of elements and phases directly related to the characteristics of the disaster itself. That is why, with today’s degree of scientific development, its functioning is unimaginable without certain information technologies that help decision-makers collect, analyze, display, and understand specific spatial and temporal information. The lack of absolute prediction, intensity, and destructive power alarmingly emphasize the need for a rapid decision-making process. This decision-making process in risk management, aside from human errors, can be greatly enhanced by the use of fast information systems. The Geographic Information System improves the disaster risk management process in various ways. In the period prior to the occurrence of the disaster itself, this system can be used for planning activities, while during the disaster, it can be used as significant logistical support in the decision-making process. The advantages of using information systems in the disaster risk management process are multiple and include: efficient and timely review of the overall situation on the ground, decision-making based on highly professional operational information, improved coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation activities or elimination of consequences in the area affected by a disaster, improved communication in the field, better allocation of resources and assistance to affected citizens, etc. It is necessary to continue the development of information systems for disaster risk management, as this can greatly mitigate the catastrophic consequences caused by unprofessional and untimely decisions. *Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. Paper presented at the International Scientific and professional conference – 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.* [
Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. *International Scientific and Professional Conference – 40 Years of Higher Education in the Field of Security – Theory and Practice*, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, 1281–1295.
Societal Resilience to Disasters Caused by Nuclear Accidents
Research examining societal resilience and preparedness challenges associated with nuclear-accident disasters.
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Abstract
Keeping in mind that Serbia does not have a nuclear power plant and that there are justified reasons to introduce nuclear energy, it is necessary to examine citizens’ level of information and preparedness for such disasters, i.e. the possibility of coping with a specific nuclear accident. Also, several nuclear power plants are in operation near Serbia, so caution and sufficient knowledge should be kept in mind and prevention measures would be implemented in this type of disaster. The research subject is the study of risk perception and preparedness for potential nuclear accidents. The research was conducted on the territory of Belgrade using multi-stage random sampling with 256 respondents. The research results indicate a severe need to inform and educate citizens about risk management in disasters caused by nuclear accidents in Serbia, bearing in mind that the results showed that preparedness is not at a significant level. Based on the research results, preconditions are created to create appropriate strategies, programs, and campaigns that would greatly help improve the awareness and knowledge of citizens about the correct and safe way to react in such situations. Conclusion: The research contributes significantly to this scientific field, considering the smaller number of such studies in Serbia. It is essential to keep in mind that the research was conducted on the territory of Belgrade, where nuclear energy is not currently used. Still, in relatively recent history, there was a situation when the Republic of Serbia was exposed to the consequences of a nuclear disaster indirectly. Also, several nuclear power plants are operating near the country, so caution and sufficient knowledge should be kept in mind and prevention measures should be implemented in this type of disaster. Based on that, there was a need to examine the social strata on efforts to respond to, prevent and inform about the dangers of nuclear disasters. The research part first aimed to investigate how many people think they are ready and told about reacting to situations caused by nuclear disasters, i.e. whether they consider themselves sufficiently trained and whether they perceive the danger of given conditions. As already mentioned in the last part of the paper, it turns out that the respondents feel that they are not ready enough to react in these situations and that they express a desire and need to be further educated on this issue. Then, it is essential to know that a large percentage of respondents are willing to respect the measures taken by the state in the event of an outbreak of this unforeseen situation and to agree or fully agree with the view that they trust the authorities and institutions to respond to dangers nuclear disasters adequately. They are also ready for possible evacuation and assistance in the form of volunteering in the event of a nuclear disaster. This research could further support similar topics to improve nuclear disaster risk management practices. Then, there is space and possibility to expand the scope of this research and obtain even more detailed results and data on information and training of the population on the consequences of nuclear disasters and ways to better protect themselves from them. It is essential to know at least basic knowledge, protection and prevention measures in responding to technical and technological disasters, bearing in mind that they are not uncommon and that the consequences can indeed be devastating. In addition, as the need of the respondents to receive additional education was noticed, it is not out of place to use this mood regarding the culture of nuclear protection and safety. When it comes to the limitations and difficulties of this research, the fact is that the research was conducted in the territory of the city of Belgrade and not in the territory of the Republic of Serbia as a whole. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Rikanović, S., Knežević, S. (2022). Resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents. IAI Academic Conference Proceedings, Budapest Conference, 5 May 2022.* [
Cvetković, V., Rikanović, S., Knežević, S. (2022). The resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents. IAI Academic Conference Proceedings, Budapest Conference, 5 May 2022.
Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-Economic and Psychological Factors
Research exploring demographic, socioeconomic and psychological determinants of social resilience to flood disasters.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Employee Preparedness for Fire Disasters in Electrical Power Distribution
A workplace-preparedness study examining demographic and socioeconomic influences on employee readiness for fire disasters in Serbia’s electrical-power-distribution sector.
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Abstract
This quantitative research aims to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to epidemics as a natural disaster and security threat and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors use a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about epidemics. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3.548 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65.561 students), which equates to 5.4% of the population. From population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools randomly selected them is 13th. The research results shows that the students’ knowledge of the epidemics influence: gender, education of father and mother, success in school; the perception: gender, education of father and mother, education in school; and knowledge of safety procedures reactions: age, education of father and mother household with his grandfather, education in family and school. Because of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. Research suggests how to affect secondary school students in order to raise the level of perception and knowledge about epidemics. Conclusion: Based on statistical analyses of factors influencing knowledge, perception, and familiarity with safety procedures regarding epidemics, the following conclusions were reached: The gender of respondents is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. The age of respondents is statistically significantly related to perception, but no such relationship exists with knowledge and familiarity with safety procedures. The education level of the father and mother is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety procedures. The academic success of respondents is statistically significantly related to knowledge and perception, while no such relationship exists with familiarity with safety procedures. Fear of epidemics is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. Education about epidemics in school and family is statistically significantly related only to perception, while no such relationship exists with knowledge and familiarity with safety response procedures. Finally, no statistically significant relationship was found between living with certain family members and perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. Based on these results, the creation of educational strategies to improve students’ knowledge about epidemics must consider the following socio-demographic and psychological characteristics: gender, age, parent’s education level, academic success, and the presence of fear of epidemics. Apstrakt: Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o epidemijama kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o epidemijama. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o epidemijama statistički značajno utiču (p < 0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, obrazovanost oca i majke , uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, edukacija u školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, edukacija u školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, epidemije, učenici srednjih škola u Beogradu, faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju. *Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama. Deveta međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravljanja“, Veleučilište Velika Gorica, Hrvatska, 12-13 aprila, Split, 859-868.* [
Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). *Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama [Analysis of factors influencing knowledge and perception of high school students in Belgrade about epidemics]*. Zbornik radova Devete međunarodne znanstveno-stručne konferencije „Dani kriznog upravljanja“ (pp. 859–868). Velika Gorica: Veleučilište Velika Gorica.
Harmonizing Wildfire Risk Assessment in the Western Balkans
Regional research focused on harmonizing wildfire-risk-assessment approaches across the Western Balkans through the IPAFF project context.
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Abstract
Starting from the increasingly frequent consequences of floods in local communities in Serbia, this paper aims to examine the level and impact of selected demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on the level of social resilience to flood disasters. The research was conducted using a provided questionnaire and then collected online for 261 respondents during August 2021. The research results show a statistically significant influence of gender, previous experience, social ties, trust in public institutions and involvement in risk communication processes on the level of social resilience to flooding disasters. In addition, research has found that strengthening social resilience requires strengthening social networking, trust and solidarity among members of the local community. The obtained research results can significantly help all stakeholders formulate strategies, plans, and initiatives to improve social resilience to the consequences of flood disasters and create preconditions for building a safe and sustainable environment. Conclusion: The characteristics of floods affecting states and local communities worldwide require the joint efforts of both the competent state authorities and local communities in dealing with and responding to flood risk. It is necessary to develop civic awareness, knowledge, skills, and resources that will create the preconditions for building social resilience, one of the critical aspects of disaster risk management facing modern society. Local communities resistant to the consequences of flood disasters need to cooperate with emergency services, local authorities, and other relevant organizations before, during, and after emergencies. Resilient communities participate in decision-making related to emergency management, show interest in their environment, and act proactively to strengthen community resilience to flood disasters (Ntontis, Drury, Amlôt, Rubin & Williams, 2019). Statistical analysis of the survey of social resistance to floods within the local communities of the Republic of Serbia showed that age, experience, education, social ties, and trust in public institutions are key influencing factors that determine the level of social resilience to floods. The results indicate that it is necessary to introduce programs and training for dealing with emergencies caused by gender, both within all levels of education and among employees in all sectors. The goal of introducing the mentioned programs and training is to raise awareness about the risk and thus the resilience of local communities to the consequences of floods. According to McClymont et al. (2020), the so-called social resilience education is a crucial aspect of flood risk reduction in a flood risk environment that identifies the knowledge, skills, values, and preparedness needed to manage flood risk and improve social resilience to floods effectively. Respondents also confirmed that strengthening social resilience requires strengthening social networking, trust, and solidarity among members of the local community. These aspects of social resilience can be encouraged through various initiatives and associations of citizens whose activities would assist in emergencies, significantly contributing to the development of knowledge, experience, and exchange of information necessary for reducing flood risks. Accumulation of social capital through community participation through reliable networks can provide the required external factors that will influence individual decision-making, increasing the motivation of residents to prepare for the adverse effects of climate change (Lo & Chan, 2017). The survey of respondents found that their participation in monitoring and communication on risk can significantly strengthen citizens’ trust in decision-makers and services responsible for dealing with emergencies. Communication networks in the form of public debates, media, personal interactions with other people, and the very types of social ties enable the creation of social capital through which awareness and knowledge necessary to develop an appropriate level of risk perception can be formed (Lechowska, 2018). The research results indicate that the subject of research is an inexhaustible source of foundation for future research aimed at examining the factors that determine social resilience to the consequences of floods. The obtained results can significantly help local authorities, citizens’ associations, and stakeholders in formulating strategies, plans, and initiatives that will improve social resilience to the consequences of floods and create preconditions for building a safe and sustainable environment. An obvious limitation of the research is the insufficient number of respondents in the broader area of the Republic of Serbia, which would provide a complete picture of the current level of social resilience to the consequences of floods and the interdependence of the examined factors. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Ivković, T. (2022). Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-economic and Psychological Factors of Impact”. 12th International Conference of the International Society for the Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 21-23 September 2022. Hosted by Babeș-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca (Romania), Research Institute for Sustainability and Disaster Management based on High Performance Computing and Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering. * [
Fiorucci, P., Pernice, U., Cvetković, M.V., Rajkovchevki, R. (2022). Harmonizing wildfire risk assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF project. ICFBR2022, International Conference on Fire Behaviour and Risk, Italy.
Knowledge of Children and Youth About Forest Fires
Research examining discrepancies between children’s and young people’s basic perceptions of forest fires and actual hazard knowledge.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Comparative Disaster Risk Management Policies in South-East Europe
Comparative policy research examining disaster-risk-management approaches and institutional development across South-East Europe.
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Abstract
Using measures for sustainable development and reducing the risk of disasters in order to protect the population, goods and the environment is the duty of every state in the fight against security challenges that disasters bring. Disaster risk reduction is a multidisciplinary policy designed to implement various measures to strengthen community resilience and preparedness for disasters. The region of Southeast Europe is recognized as extremely endangered by natural disasters. The countries of the region, especially their national risk management policies, continue to be based in part on solutions from earlier times. The subject of the research is focused on the analysis of disaster risk management policies in the countries of Southeast Europe, their comparison and review of similarities and differences. The countries of this region base their policies on similar solutions aimed at reducing the risk of disasters. There are shortcomings in the full implementation of the adopted international frameworks in the national risk management policies and normative-legal frameworks in certain countries of this region. Conclusion: Disaster risk management policy, nowadays, is a very important factor for national and international policies. Observing the increase in the frequency, intensity, and devastation of disasters, the cause of which is most often associated with increasingly pronounced climate change, disaster risk management policy will become a key factor in the future. Disasters and their consequences, both on the population and infrastructure, economic flows, and food production, require a studious and comprehensive approach. Properly and precisely regulated policy of disaster risk management should be the goal of every country in the world, regardless of whether they are economically developed or developing countries. Disasters, especially natural ones, know no borders, so it is important to point out that the regulation of risk management policy in the right way must primarily come from the international level. Just as it is important to prescribe and adopt international frameworks for disaster risk reduction, their implementation and application within risk management policies at the national level is equally important, if not greater. The analysis of professional literature and normative-legal regulations has noticed the lack of full application of ratified and adopted international frameworks in national disaster risk management policies. Each state applies international frameworks and agreements to the extent appropriate to national interests and capabilities. The region of Southeast Europe and the Balkan Peninsula is recognized as extremely endangered by natural disasters. The countries of the region, especially the members of the former SFRY, continue to base their national risk management policies in part on the solutions prescribed during the socialist era. The consequences of wars and political turmoil have left their mark on insufficient communication and the necessity for developing relations for bilateral and multilateral cooperation within the region. The catastrophic floods of 2014 underlined the need for cooperation in the field of prevention, response, and rehabilitation of the consequences of disasters. The analysis of normative-legal sources came to the conclusion that national disaster risk management policies are indeed based on approximately similar principles and postulates. The part of risk management policy related to disaster mitigation is indeed regulated in a similar way in the countries of Southeast Europe. It was also confirmed that the issue of preparedness for the coming disasters is regulated in a similar way in the countries of the region. Finally, the assertion that a part of national disaster response policies is based on similar solutions has been ascertained. The analysis of the normative-legal framework of the countries of the Southeast Europe region established the same similarity in all national governance policies, and that there is a tendency for all countries to focus on disaster prevention, rather than disaster response and recovery, as has been the case so far. States seem to have realized that it is economically much more profitable to invest in prevention measures than to pay damages after a disaster. This aspiration is in line with international frameworks governing disaster risk management policies, such as the Hyogo and Sendai frameworks. All countries in the region understand the importance of creating a database of potential dangers and disasters, accompanied by risk maps, as well as preparations for their possible occurrence. With the National Strategy for Emergency Situations, Montenegro has stepped in the direction of improving the disaster risk reduction system, led by guidelines in the direction of integrating these goals into national policy and affirming these goals through bilateral, regional, and wider international cooperation. When it comes to BiH, the Ministry of Security, through the Protection and Rescue Sector, treats the issue of including disaster risk management in national policies as very important. The Croatian legal framework is more focused on crisis management than preparation and mitigation, and appropriate risk, threat, and vulnerability assessments are also needed. In terms of risk management, Bulgaria is guided by well-laid foundations in the form of the Law on Disaster Protection, but is also guided by principles and guidelines that point to a different orientation and direction from a system that responds to a system of comprehensive approach and equal evaluation of prevention, preparedness, and recovery activities. Bulgaria also has a National Disaster Protection Program and a National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy. North Macedonia has a Law on Protection and Rescue, a National Strategy for Protection and Rescue, as well as a National Plan for Protection and Rescue from Natural Disasters, and further activities regarding the functioning of the regulatory framework governing disaster risk management are based on the need for missing laws and regulations, which would complete the legal framework for protection and rescue. When it comes to Greece, the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction has established a network of government agencies and other relevant agencies. *Reference – Cvetković, V., & Todorović, S. (2021). Comparative analysis of disaster risk management policies in the region of south-east Europe. International yearbook Faculty of Security Studies, 1, 7-17. doi:10.20544/IYFS.39.1.19.P01* [
Cvetković, V. M., & Todorović, S. (2019). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Policies in the Region of South-East Europe. International Yearbook, Faculty of Security, (1), 7–18. https\://doi.org/10.20544/IYFS.39.1.19.P01
Citizen Support for Vulnerable People and Volunteering During Disasters
Empirical research examining citizens’ attitudes toward assisting vulnerable groups and volunteering during disaster situations.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Secondary-School Students’ Flood Preparedness Knowledge in Belgrade
Research examining secondary-school students’ flood knowledge as an important element of preparedness and disaster-risk education in Belgrade.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Perceptions of Private Security in Serbia and North Macedonia
A comparative study of student perceptions of private security in Serbia and North Macedonia, relevant to institutional trust and security governance.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Individual Citizen Resilience to Flood Disasters in Belgrade
A Belgrade case study examining individual resilience to flood disasters and the factors that shape preparedness and adaptive capacity.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Household Supplies for Natural Disasters
Research investigating factors that influence whether households possess essential supplies needed for natural-disaster preparedness.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Knowledge About Fires as a Security Threat
Research examining the factors that influence citizens’ knowledge of fires as a phenomenon that threatens personal and community security.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Information Systems and Disaster Risk Management
Research examining the role of information systems in supporting disaster-risk management, information flows and decision-making.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Citizen Information During Emergency Situations
Research into the factors and modalities that shape how citizens receive and understand information during emergency situations.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Innovative Disaster Early-Warning and Alert Systems
A research review of innovative solutions for disaster early-warning and alert systems, with relevance for modern preparedness and public warning.
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Abstract
In this paper that presents the quantitative study, authors examined the influence of parenthood on the citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, 19 of these were randomly selected. In selected municipalities the research was undertaken in those areas and households that have been or are potentially the most vulnerable in relation to the level of high water with the use of a multi-stage random sample. In the research it was applied test method based on the technique of interviewing. The research results indicate that heavy rains encourage parents in higher percents to think about preparedness for responding in relation to citizens who are not parents. Parents to a greater extent as the reasons for not taking preventive measures point out that their assistance in this matter would not mean much, that they expected that in actions of protection and rescue primarily would be engaged citizens from flood-affected areas, then they know the safety procedures for response and they would be to a greater extent evacuated in friends’ places, etc. In domestic theory on disasters, there has been an insufficient number of experimental researches, while at the same there are no papers on the relationship between parenting and the preparedness of citizens to respond. Thus, the practical aim of the research was to contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods. Namely, the research indicates the way how should influence on parents in order to raise preparedness for response to a higher level. Conclusion: Parents to a higher percentage/greater extent about non-parents think about preparedness to respond due to heavy rains. They point out the following reasons for not taking action on preparedness: “My help would not mean much” and “I expected the citizens from flood-affected areas would be primarily engaged.” They are familiar with safety procedures, they would evacuate to a friend’s place, they point out that someone at work talked about the floods; they know where elders, disabled, and infants live in the community; they know what help is needed by elders, disabled, and infants; they know what they should do after official warnings about the approach of the flood; they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period after the flood; they know where the water valve, gas valve, and electricity switch are; they know how to handle the water and gas valve, electricity switch; they say that they got the information about the floods at work, on the radio; they would like to be educated about the floods on television; they scored a level of assessment of risk from flooding in the local community in the next year and five years and higher familiarity with the responsibilities of first responders in natural disasters caused by flooding; they have food and water supplies for four days; they never replenish supplies they have; they have copies of important financial, personal and other documents and they have home insurance in case of a flood. On the other hand, the respondents who are not parents to a higher percentage/greater extent: would engage in assisting the victims in the field and in shelters, scored a rating level of individual preparedness and preparedness of households to respond. They point out the following reasons for not taking preventive measures on a personal plan: “I do not consider myself or my household at risk of flooding” and “I have no support from the local community”; they expect help from non-governmental humanitarian organizations in the first 72 hours after the occurrence of a flood; they would evacuate to shelters during the floods and rented apartments; they believe their neighbors can rescue themselves in the event of floods; they say they got the information on floods from family members, friends, at school, at college, through the informal education system, through the Internet; they would like to be educated through video games, scored a level of familiarity with the nearby shelters; they possess: supplies at home, food supplies for two days, water supply for one day and two days; they replenish supplies once a month and once a year. *Reference – Cvetković, M. V., Ivanov, A., & Milojković, B. (2016). Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by floods. VI International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance, Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies godine.* [
Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Dragićević, S., & Novković, I. (2018). The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction. *8th International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days”*, 2–3 October, Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade.
Family First-Aid Disaster Kit Preparedness in Serbia
A Serbian case study examining the role and preparedness value of first-aid disaster kits at household and family level.
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Abstract
This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters. Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https\://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1* [
Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens’ attitudes about the emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia. *Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47*(8), 1213–1214.
Social Networks in Disaster Risk Reduction
Research examining the role of social networks in disaster-risk reduction, public information, awareness and preparedness.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters. Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. *Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https\://www\.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620* [
Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., & Lukić, T. (2024). Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Safety, 10(2), 50.
Citizen Education About Floods in Serbia
A Serbian case study focused on citizen education about floods and the role of knowledge in strengthening preparedness.
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Abstract
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade. Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations. *Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.* [
Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: Case study of Belgrade. *Sociological Review, 53*(2), 596–626.
Radiological Weapons and Terrorism-Induced Emergency Situations
Research examining the emergency-management implications of radiological weapons used for terrorist purposes.
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Abstract
There is no universally accepted definition or classification of an emergency situation. The adoption of a universally and generally acceptable classification of emergency situations represents one of the important challenges the researchers, competent governmental authorities, and international organizations have to face. The classification of emergencies in this paper has been made on the basis of analyses of different sources, such as course books, articles, internet sites, relevant international and national reports, etc. Based on this, several criteria have been proposed for defining the classification of emergencies. Justification and acceptability of classification of emergency situations constitute an important prerequisite for their valid recording and better quality analysis, as well as for the international cooperation of governments, authorities in charge, members of the scientific community and non-governmental organizations from that field of work. This paper gives a short overview of the classification of emergency situations, with a special focus on the USA, the Russian Federation, China, the Netherlands, Germany and Serbia. Conclusion: The prerequisite for the classification of emergency situations is an unequivocal determination of the mentioned subject of division. A newly created or analyzed classification of emergency situations should satisfy the conditions of the valid classification relating to the theory and logical requirements. According to this, validity requirements for classification relate to the criteria, on one hand, and to the members of division, on the other hand. Theoretical research of the classification of emergency situations that has been performed by the analysis of various specialized materials published in Serbia and around the world represents an attempt at a modest contribution to the identification of the universally accepted classification of emergency situations. More concretely, during the research, a large number of various definitions and classifications of emergency situations has been processed, despite the authors being aware that some of the translations have not been done in the most professional way, in an appropriate context, etc. Therefore, we are of the opinion that it will be worth elaborating some of the conclusions we have reached. Each emergency and its characteristics has its own causes of occurrence, unique scenario, influence on human beings and the environment, scales, and severity of consequences. It implies that emergency situations can be classified on the basis of numerous features that take into consideration these complex occurrences from different points of view. However, differences between the classifications are a consequence of different definitions of emergency situations as a subject of division. One of the reasons for that is that authors have translated foreign terms literally and without criticism (disaster, catastrophe, emergency) and connected them with our terms, such as emergency situation, catastrophe, crisis, state of emergency. Besides, numerous definitions of emergency situations may have a national or culturological feature which makes the standardization of the mentioned term difficult. As far as the international classification is concerned, the most accepted and most cited is the classification of emergency situations offered by CRED, i.e., the organization for research of epidemiological disasters that has been striving for years to adopt the international definitions and classifications of emergency situations. All this has as a consequence the fact that numerous classifications of emergency situations express specificities of their countries of origin. Although intensive efforts have been made by the international organizations, state bodies and organizations, as well as by individuals to accept their proposed classifications of emergency situations as universal, the mentioned classifications of various authors, organizations and institutions around the world unambiguously testify that this has not yet happened. Therefore, we can say that there is no accepted (adopted) and universal classification of emergency situations. Generally speaking, all emergency situations can be classified into three framework types: natural emergency situations, emergency situations that are related (directly or indirectly) to human beings (they are called anthropogenic, technological, technical-technological, social) and hybrid emergency situations (a combination of acts of natural forces and the influence of human decisions). Therefore, the mentioned classifications have been derived by means of the criterion of cause that has a generic-structural characteristic, i.e., it fulfills logical requirements of classification. The common feature of all emergency situations regardless of the type is related to their consequences. By combining the criteria of cause and consequence, intensity and consequences, etc., valid complex typologies are being obtained. Besides, emergency situations are divided into groups, sub-groups, and incidents, i.e., the so-called “classifying systems.” When making a classification of emergency situations, researchers, organizations, and institutions use various criteria, some of which have a theoretical or pragmatic-teleological importance. Therefore, the understanding of definitions and classifications of emergency situations serves researchers and organizations around the world as a good platform for research, database management, better analysis of them all, and practical implementation of derived conclusions. *Reference – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2013). Classification of Emergency Situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance., Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 275-291.* [
Mlađan, D., & Cvetković, V. (2013). Classification of emergency situations. *Archibald Reiss Days* (pp. 275–291). Beograd: Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies.
Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environmental Security in Serbia
Research analysing how climate change affects biodiversity protection and conservation as a precondition for environmental security in Serbia.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Global Health Risks and Healthcare-System Responses in Emergencies
Research examining global health risks and the capacity of healthcare systems to respond effectively during emergencies.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Chemical Weapons for Terrorist Purposes: Citizens’ Attitudes in Belgrade
A Belgrade case study examining citizens’ attitudes toward the potential use of chemical weapons for terrorist purposes and related security risks.
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Abstract
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society. Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations. *Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.* [
Cvetković, V., & Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama [Endangering the Security of Local Communities in Emergencies Caused by Floods]. *Politika nacionalne sigurnosti*, 13(22), 81–105.
Research areas that connect science, policy and practice
Our research spans natural and technological hazards, preparedness, resilience, emergency management, security, environmental risk, public health and emerging technologies.
Disaster Risk Reduction
Prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and integrated disaster-risk-management systems.
Community & Societal Resilience
Social resilience, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, local preparedness, recovery and community participation.
Natural Hazards
Floods, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides, droughts, storms and multi-hazard risk.
Technological & Industrial Hazards
Industrial accidents, nuclear and radiological risks, hazardous materials, infrastructure failures and complex emergencies.
Emergency Management & Civil Protection
First responders, protection and rescue, emergency medical systems, firefighting, civil protection and operational readiness.
Risk Communication & Early Warning
Public warning, risk perception, information behaviour, social media, trust and emergency communication.
Climate Change & Environmental Security
Climate adaptation, environmental risks, ecological resilience, biodiversity, waste risks and sustainability.
Critical Infrastructure & Cybersecurity
Infrastructure resilience, security governance, ransomware, digital risks and continuity of essential systems.
Public Health & Pandemics
Pandemic preparedness, epidemics, healthcare-system capacity, psychosocial support and health resilience.
Disaster Education & Preparedness
School safety, youth preparedness, public education, training, simulation and safety culture.
Security, Policing & High-Risk Operations
Police, private security, terrorism, high-risk operations, institutional trust and security-sector resilience.
Geospatial Analytics & AI
GIS, remote sensing, spatial risk analysis, predictive modelling, AI applications and data-driven disaster science.
Methods & research capabilities
Methodological diversity allows us to examine disaster risks from individual, community, institutional, spatial and international perspectives.
Large-Scale Surveys
Face-to-face and online surveys, structured questionnaires, population studies and institutional assessments.
Qualitative Research
Semi-structured interviews, focus groups, expert interviews and thematic analysis.
Mixed-Methods Research
Integrated quantitative and qualitative designs for complex disaster, resilience and governance questions.
GIS & Remote Sensing
Spatial analysis, hazard mapping, hot-spot analysis, remote sensing and geospatial decision support.
Predictive & Statistical Modelling
Regression, index construction, predictive frameworks, comparative metrics and resilience modelling.
Cross-National Comparison
Comparative studies across the Western Balkans, Europe and wider international research settings.
Policy & Institutional Analysis
Legal frameworks, governance systems, institutional capacity, strategic planning and implementation gaps.
Systematic & Evidence Reviews
Structured literature reviews, conceptual frameworks, evidence synthesis and research-gap identification.
Evidence for Policy
Research findings that support risk-informed policy, strategies, local planning and institutional reform.
Professional Practice
Evidence translated into preparedness, civil protection, emergency response, training and operational recommendations.
Education & Knowledge Transfer
Scientific knowledge transformed into teaching, public education, professional training and accessible resources.
International Cooperation
Research networks and comparative projects connecting universities, institutions, experts and practitioners across countries.